Posted on 10/05/2009 4:25:24 AM PDT by expat_panama
The United States has been hollowed out. It no longer manufactures goods. Once the factory of the world, the U.S. now manufactures debt. The high wage manufacturing jobs have been out-sourced to low wage economies. The demise of U.S. manufacturing is at the core of the decline of America, its chronic trade deficits and growing international indebtedness. It makes the worlds savers reluctant to be exposed to the U.S. dollar.
There is one problem with this widely held view: It is factually wrong.
The value of U.S. manufacturing output in real terms (adjusted for inflation) was a little more than $3 trillion in 2008. That is up from $1.2 trillion in 1972. If the U.S. manufacturing sector was a separate country, it would be the worlds 5th largest economy (behind the rest of the U.S., Japan, China and Germany). The U.S. remains the worlds largest manufacturer. Full stop.
Although international comparisons are fraught with measuring problems, it appears that the U.S. share of world manufacturing is roughly the same as the combined total of the BRICs (Brazil, India and Russia account for a combined 11-12% share).
The data also suggests that the impressive rise of Chinese manufacturing has come at the expense of Japan and other East Asian countries more than the United States, which the UN data suggests actually saw a small rise of its global share in recent years.
China has largely injected itself into the production chain at the labor intensive stages, so that television or electronic good that may have been made in Japan or Taiwan or South Korea now says made in China.
[snip]
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearmarkets.com ...
I think the way it works is most people get paid to work and wouldn't do it if they didn't have to. Henry Ford once quipped "a man will not do an honest days work for an honest days pay, if he can get out of it".
Uhhh, noticed who sits in the White House and which particular group grifters run the legislature?
Uhhh, noticed who sits in the White House and which particular group grifters run the legislature?
If that were the case than most people would choose to be in prison or otherwise institutionalized where they’d be fed, clothed, and sheltered whether they worked or not. They don’t. They choose to settle for anything they can get so long as they can provide for themselves.
Well, we have 15 something million people out of work as of today. They are only spending on necessities. (I believe your chart shows the recent downturn in productivity)
Until they have real jobs and start spending on other things, this economy is stuck in neutral.
I agree with you on 1 and 4, but 2 and 3 just don’t fit together. So you are finding hard working Mexican green card holders who are fluent in English and math with a high school diploma? Let me guess, they work cheaper too. Where in the world are you finding those guys? I think you are confusing the two types of workers that you are hiring(white and blue collars).
I pay based on performance. I have had Mexicans with a third grade education earning more than engineers. These are not minimum wage green carders; these are skilled workers with 20+ years experience. However, I have adjusted to the fact that I am the only one here who can do chemistry, math, etc.
In my current company, I am the only white collar worker.
Where do I find them? Word of mouth. They come from HUGH families. I’m series.
So? Move where jobs are, don't wallow in the rust belt (or where ever).
I'd rather pay a bit more for a shirt made here so that my neighbor can have a job
I tried as a manager of a wholesale firm to sell a "made in America" line of products (over a three year period in the late 90's). No one gave a damn, wouldn't pay 5% extra for American made. Thats reality in the USA. Money talks, bs walks. You just want the government to provide you with a job by closing our markets, regardless of the cost to our standard of living.
There is just as much stuff you buy that is made in America if you think about it. Actually, the fuel in your tank is made in America....the raw material (oil) is imported.
Found it!
I talking about all sorts of changes in our economy and its makeup over the years. For instance:
1. The chart I linked in #51 shows depression era GDP of about $100 billion. What's it now: $10 trillion.
2. Our first $100 billion federal budget occurred under JFK in the early '60s. What is it now: $3 to $4 trillion? I've lost track with Obama and his budgets.
3. Our population has doubled since the '60s and we have a far larger workforce due to population and the entry of more women into the workforce.
4. And how many new manufactured products that didn't even exist a few decades back are now produced? Personal computers, cell phones, and all the accessories that go with those, and software, etc., and many more. There are far more products being produced now than in the past, which would increase manufacturing output, here and outsourced.
5. And I repeat something: it'd be interesting to know, over several decades, the value of manufactured products purchased in the US each year, and what percentage of that was actually produced here.
I'm saying the elements that make up our economy have changed so much, and there has been so much growth even after inflation adjustments, that simply taking one element and expressing it as a percentage of GDP has little validity because those elements that make up GDP, or the denominator have changed too much.
And, a couple of long term comparisons to GDP that do seem valid: the portion taken by government as taxes, and the relationship to the money supply.
The facts are what they are. Free trade has not hurt manufacturing jobs on a national basis. Productivity gains (primarily) have.
This is important because tariffs and trade wars hurt the economy when we can least afford it. That was a real mistake made in the first depression.
Even though they are paid little, there is no widespread slavery anywhere. China is little different than the US was in 1900 as far as wages and working conditions. As China and India mature, their work force won't stand for those conditions for long.
As for those workers not buying stuff, they couldn't really afford a lot of it anyway. High wage demands (unions) had as much to do with the destruction of labor intensive industries as anything. Protectionism only subsidizes unions.
That's a bad thing for America and I'm glad Reagan, GHWB, and GWB felt the same way.
Cheap stuff isn't cheap.
I actually agree wholeheartedly with that, but we are in the minority.
lol
I find it funny also, but not for the same reason. You guys beg for the government to save you, when the wealth of evidence not only indicates it does not, you won't even admit you expect the government to save you. (That's the flipside of the "tough shit" argument you attempt to dismiss so easily).
I’m not sure what we are arguing about, anymore. When you get a handle on it, post your stats here.
ah, it was mfg output as % total output. Thanks
You’re welcome.
5.56mm
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