Calculating a Minimum Attendance Number for the 9/12 DC Tea Party

vanity | 9/12/2009 | speelurker

[speelurker]

I've put together a Google Spreadsheet with a calculation of a minimum number of people who could have attended today.

Density Calculation Spreadsheet

This is based on analyzing what the camera that was looking down Pennsylvania Avenue saw throughout the event. Here's a snapshow when it's empty:

Here's an analysis of the width of that street using Google Earth:

[speelurker]

Would it be reasonable to reach half-way into the sidewalks for the estimate?

[Freedom2specul8]

Bookmarked

[speelurker]

Is there anybody who was there who can suggest a better rate for the walking speed?

[speelurker]

Don't forget, this is really just trying to come up with a scientific mimimum. Not an attendance number for the whole event.

[BunnySlippers]

True. I don;t text.

But I’ll bet a lot of texsters nationwide make up the difference.

[guitarplayer1953]

When promise keepers went to Dc in 97 there was an aerial photo and it was estimated that there was over 1 million men there. We had been planing the event since the early 90’s only to have the million man march that only produced around 100,000 men when the park board stated that it was that low they sued and and the park board no longer gives an estimation of how many attend any rallies since then. We were several blocks wide and from one point another. They tried to say that there were not that many but there was lots of tree cover and it was jam packed.

[Wpin]

Yes, that would be reasonable. Now, I spoke with a couple of ladies who were near the front of the march. They said that they arrived at the mall at appx. 10:30 am. That would put the speed for them at about 2 mph. However, people further back took more like an hour to get there which is about 1 mph.

One phenomenon that I have never experienced with such power, was a wave of cheering rushing from a long distance behind me up to and past me. It was actually frightening with its noise level and speed. You actually could feel it as well as hear it. Was really incredible. I have never felt or heard anything like it at professional football or basketball games.

[dalebert]

someone said the dc police calculated 1.5 million

[iceskater]

This was not the only route people took to get to the Mall. There were at least several hundred buses.
People were walking on the sidewalks as well as the street.

Having been there all day, 110K is way too low. 2M may be too high but 100K is way too low.

[speelurker]

Ok, here's a new width analysis:

I can only imagine what that must have sounded like....

[ArmstedFragg]

It’s been fun watching the MSM having to keep revising its numbers when it became so apparent that they were low-balling the figures that they couldn’t maintain the lie. “Thousands”, then “Tens of Thousands”. I think that “2 million” figure of Pelosi’s is the usual effort to push a number that will later enable them to claim the effort failed because their inflated number wasn’t reached. Looking at that time lapse, I’d go for a hundred and fifty grand, but the one odd thing is that the time lapse has the flag at half staff, and the webcam has shown it at full staff most of the day. Odd, that.

[fours]

yeah, the parks service stopped estimating crowd sizes after the Million Man March because it was too political (Farrakhan threatened to sue because the number was less than a million).

from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Million_Man_March#Crowd_size_controversy

After the Million Man March, the Park Police ceased making official crowd size estimates. Roger G. Kennedy, the Park Service director, said Congress had provided the “structure and canons” for counting people, but it had not demanded that the exercise actually be done. He contemplated informing Congress, “Thank you for telling us how to do it, but we won’t be doing it.” In the 1997 appropriations bill for the Department of the Interior, Congress included language that prohibits the National Park Service from conducting crowd estimates in the District of Columbia. The legislation also states that if event organizers want crowd estimates, they should contract with an outside agency.

[jiggyboy]

What was to prevent those of us who watched it from texting?

Let's open it to the floor -- would the receiver get information as to which cell phone tower the text message came from?

[BunnySlippers]

There was never any mention of that.

[Hildy]

I was there and when he asked us to text he didn’t say it was a way to count us, he said it was a way we can all keep in touch. I looked around and as far as I could see, I was the only one I could see in my range who actually took out their phone.

[Wpin]

Okay...referring to your post #30...the line you are using to measure needs to be perpendicular to the street lane lines which are parallel to the street edges. Using those as your guide may help you get a straighter line... :) It will shorten the width, but be more accurate. Earlier I saw a time lapsed video of the protest. They used a three and a half hour window to shoot it in, but the streets were not full for the entire time. I believe the link was on Free Republic on another thread, I will look and see if I can find it.

[BunnySlippers]

What was your conclusion as I admire your opinion? And do you think it was 2 million?

[speelurker]

I definitely know the answer to that and it’s no. There’s no information as to where an SMS came from when received other than the MO (mobile origination number).

[Wpin]

Here is a link to the time lapse view of protest;

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2338301/posts

[PoplarBluffian]

I knew a freeper would get around to doing this and have eagerly been waiting. Most estimates sound a little low or way to high. This seems more plausible although I wish it were closer to the 250,000 of ‘63. That would have really put the fear into ‘em! LOL

I’m smart enough to be a freeper but not smart enough to do anything like this. Thanks!