Posted on 07/29/2009 8:04:48 PM PDT by FromLori
That's right, FAILS.
No, you didn't hear it reported this way and won't, but that's the math.
Here you have the results:
.
And here's the math:
1.923 BTC X 61.59% Primary Dealer bid = 1.18 BTC (PD), greater than 1.0. Or to put it a different way, but for the primary dealers the bid-to-cover was less than one, meaning that some of the issue would have been left on the table.
Thats a fail; but for the primary dealers the issue would not have subscribed.
Primary dealers are required to bid. That's the deal in exchange for their being named as "primary dealers." For this reason short of thermonuclear war you will never see an actual (BTC < 1.0) "fail" on a US Treasury Auction - Treasury has rigged the process so as to insure that cannot be reported.
Therefore, the question is this: Less the primary dealer "bid" (forced by agreement) was there sufficient interest to subscribe the issue, and the answer is NO.
Those who think this is "no big deal" need to have their head examined. In general any BTC under 2.0 indicates a serious problem, and the perverse nature of the primary dealer system is the reason.
The United States' Credit Card (issued by China and Japan) is being slowly cut off. That the stock market "recovered" after this ridiculously bad auction (bow-wow is the best way to describe it) speaks to the vacuum between the ears of both the cheerleaders in the mainstream media and those in the equity markets.
There is only one other time in recent memory that we've had a bond market auction fail like this. You might want to go have a look at your charts - with dates - for what followed shortly thereafter.
They're going to try to sell 7yrs tomorrow, and then the real fun begins with the quarterly refunding.
That ought to be a real riot.
President Obama, you might want to have a chat with Bill Clinton about the Bond Market and Hillarycare, lest you wind up learning this lesson the hard way.
Care to enlighten?
With the dollar losing ground practically daily and the government eunning up enormous debt with no end in sight, nobody in their right mind would buy or invest in these bonds.
I’m going to guess right before 911.
Enter Bondzilla!!! (not a minute too soon)
If this goes well, or badly, depending on how you are looking at it, they might even be forced to repeal porkulus and TARP to get it under control. This healthcare reform debacle would also go down in flames.
Curious. The long bond was actually up a bit today, but I had heard the shorter term bonds didn’t do well. I’m not sure what to make of it.
Why didn’t the dollar get trashed after the auction?
Thanks very much for posting/linking. BTTT!
Five Months On And Quantitative Easing Still Isnt Working (UK)
“Failure of Bond Market Highly Positive for Gold and Silver”
I’m not in agreement with this. My logic: To get wider participation in these auctions, a higher coupon (eg; interest rate) will have to be offered. This strengthens the dollar and thus weakens gold/silver.
I DO agree, it is not good, given current circumstances. It implies higher interest rates.
....”This healthcare reform debacle would also go down in flames.”
Not sure about that. I think it is an idealogical totem, to be rammed down our collective throats without regard to consequence.
I don’t see why any nation should buy our Obamadebt.
Obama = Debt
Obama = Servitude
Obama = Debt Slavery
Damn, damn straight.
The simple answer is to stop spending so much money, and start firing federal employees.
China must be friggin nuts if they buy any more of our debt.
“Not sure about that. I think it is an idealogical totem, to be rammed down our collective throats without regard to consequence.”
The Messiah is way more liberal than Ted Kennedy and he may be naive, but he is not stupid as dirt. He can’t face the ruination of the dollar, the death of the country’s credit rating and have any hope of surviving, personally or politically.
If the dollar goes all the way down, so does Obummer.
In fact if the former ever happens, I expect Obummer will be run out of office by another second American revolution.
I wish I could be as confident in such an outcome as you. One of the things about DeMint’s “Waterloo” comment the other day was the possible effect of backing 0bama into a “do or die” corner. This guy is not ready to take the great big “no” for an answer, IMO.
Now we, you and I, and anyone else with a brain knows gov’t health rationing is a spendathon like everything else these twerps have in mind for us. But, so much water has flown under the bridge to this point that I can’t necessarily state with certainty that this straw would break the camel’s back. And...much of the bill doesn’t take effect until some number of years down the line. So, my point is that passage of the bill (and make no mistake, I think it’s a rotten POS) is not, at least to me, a budget destroyer, a dollar destroyer. It is an enormous pile of egregious other things, but it is not necessarily that. So, I could see it passing and not having an immediate effect upon debt levels, etc;
“He cant face the ruination of the dollar, the death of the countrys credit rating and have any hope of surviving, personally or politically.”
You do realize that there are many in Congress right now who think that is exactly what needs to be done, and support Obama in those efforts wholeheartedly. Start with the San Francisco delegation to the House, led by Nancy Pelosi. We all laugh at those silly liberals in Berkeley, but those are very much Nancy’s supporters, and there are plenty more like them all over the Country.
Survive politically?? At least a third of the voting Country would support Dr. Chicago no matter what he did, and the Media will support him until the EMP finally takes them off the air for good....
And we are barely six months into this...
Obummer is expending so much of his personal time on healthcare that he is neglecting the worsening economy. On top of that, between his strongarm tactiucs he and his administration to get the blue dogs to go along with cap and trade, and combine that with the bloated federal budget deficit a la the porkulus package that was such an emergency as well, Obummer has backed himself into a corner and there is no where left to go except down. The trapdoor under his feet will open soon. And Obummer will take the entire liberal MSM down the rat hole with him which will be quite satisfying to say the least.
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