Mixed Messages in Palin Numbers

Public Policy Polling ^ | July 8, 2009 | Tom Jensen

[yongin]

46% of Americans view Palin favorably, with 45% holding a negative opinion of her. In monthly surveys conducted between April and June her favorable rating was in the range of 42-43%.

The slight increase in popularity is fueled by the number of Republicans with a positive view of her increasing from 75 to 79%. She is static with independents and slightly down with Democrats.

When it comes to whether she's fit to be President though, 55% of voters in the country say no with just 37% in the affirmative. And asked specifically how her early resignation affects their inclination to some day support her for the White House, 57% of respondents say it makes them less likely to do so compared to 30% who say it makes them more likely to vote for her.

Here are some other key findings from the poll:

-Only 19% of moderates think Palin is fit to be President.

-She has a +8 net favorability rating with men but a -6 one with women.

-Despite her overall popularity with Republicans only 68% of them think she is cut out to be chief executive.

-Among voters with a favorable opinion of her 21% do not say she is fit to be President. Among voters with an unfavorable opinion of her only 1% say she is fit to be President. Both of these numbers present problems for Palin. The first one shows that even among a decent chunk of voters who like her they don't think she's suited to be leader of the free world. The second one shows that there's little hope of her earning the respect of her detractors. For instance many Democrats, while holding an unfavorable opinion of John McCain, would still say that he is fit to be President. But when it comes to Palin they don't like her or take her particularly seriously.

What does it mean? She's absolutely beloved by the party base and there's no doubt she can be a hit for years to come at fundraisers and GOTV rallies. And she may even be popular enough with Republicans to score the party's nomination in 2012 if she wants it. But national polls we conducted between March and June showed her trailing Barack Obama by an average of 16 points, worse than Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and even Newt Gingrich. And the numbers within this most recent poll would seem to further confirm that barring some major rehabilitation of her image, nominating her in 2012 would be a GOP death wish.

I doubt she'll run in 2012 but if she does my guess is that she only ends up getting nominated if Barack Obama's reelection seems inevitable and Republicans just want to vote for someone who makes them feel good, ala Barry Goldwater in 1964. If they think they have a real chance of winning they'll probably nominate someone who is perceived to be more electable.

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

-Despite her overall popularity with Republicans only 68% of them think she is cut out to be chief executive.

Only 68%...

[2ndDivisionVet]

Related thread:

Palin’s Support Rises Among Republicans
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2288360/posts

[Question_Assumptions]

She’s got to get out and define herself and convince the voters she’s qualified and isn’t an idiot. Now that the straitjacket is off, I think she can pull that off.

[OldDeckHand]

"She needs to devote her time now to changing that number. I think she can do it - this is a woman with enormous personal magnetism. Once people see her and hear her directly instead of through the MSM's filter,"

I think she can do it as well. The question becomes, will she do it. I've seen several pundits give some very quality advice to her the last several days. Unfortunately, some of this advice would result in Palin changing or altering some things that her most fervent supporters love.

You'll frequently see comments like, "don't change a thing Sarah". Unfortunately, if she doesn't improve some aspects of her viability, she'll never begin to reduce her negative numbers. Contrary to what the Palinphiles think, she does need some professional coaching, she does need to improve her vocabulary and she needs to stop speaking in bumper sticker - essentially she needs to become a little more conventional. That's not going to be well received by her base.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Couldn’t we just flash some bright lights or something instead? Maybe a cat toy or two?

[OldDeckHand]

"Only 68%... "

Only 68% of Republicans. She needs that number to be in the mid-80s, at least. Republicans only account for 40% of the electorate, much less by some polls. If she's having problems closing the deal with her own party, she's going to struggle with Independents, to say nothing of Democrats.

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

consider how she has been mostly quiet in Alaska and under contant media attack with no way to fire back.

these numbers are awesome

[OldDeckHand]

"these numbers are awesome"

I don't know if they're "awesome", but they are much better than what the media attitude would lead one to believe. She's got her work cut out for her.

[Al B.]

The numbers are improving and she's been tied down by the Obama/Dem machine in Alaska.

She'll be on the loose soon. We'll see what happens then.

[nhwingut]

I beg to differ. If she’s at 68% with republicans in the General that’s one thing. You’d be right, she hasn’t closed the deal and is toast.

But right now its open season and you have several partisan factions fighting for leadership and slotting (i.e. Romney, Huck, the DC elites). Hence 68% is pretty good.

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

maybe hyperinflation will beat the “independent” CBS News watching morons into submission. ever think of that ?

[Grampa Dave]

Current Ongoing Yahoo Poll: What is your opinion of Sarah Palin?

Results at 3:04 pm

I have a very positive opinion. I hope she returns to politics. 49%
I have mixed feelings. She’s talented but flawed. 6%
I have a very negative opinion. I hope she does not return to politics. 44%
Not sure/No opinion. 1%

126052 votes

Vote for Sarah:

http://js.polls.yahoo.com/quiz/quiziframe.php?poll_id=46789

[AnotherUnixGeek]

Contrary to what the Palinphiles think, she does need some professional coaching, she does need to improve her vocabulary and she needs to stop speaking in bumper sticker - essentially she needs to become a little more conventional. That's not going to be well received by her base.

I think the people who like her now for her "one-of-us" appeal will still like her as she gains experience and poise. The Gibson and Couric interviews mostly showed me that Palin is very inexperienced with hostile interviews and that the McCain campaign did not have decent media advisers or prep people. Palin's resignation speech made me think she needs better speech writers. But she did a good job in her debate with Biden, and her speech to the convention revealed real star quality - the kind the GOP hasn't had since Reagan.

[Always Right]

At this point, being 16 points down to who the media tells us is the most popular president ever isn’t that bad at this point.

[beelzepug]

We just need to remember that polls are a snapshot in time. Things can change quickly. We must not let poor poll numbers become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

[Swampmarine]

3 1/2 years is a long road trip to stay out of trouble on with the MSM waiting to pounce on every careless quip.

[Impy]

After all the media hate she has 46-45 favorably and 2/3 of Republicans think she’s qualified to be President? I see that as good given the circumstances.

Ditto to the figure of 30% more likely to vote for her because she resigned.

[crunk]

She’s got to get out and define herself and convince the voters she’s qualified and isn’t an idiot.

I think she could easily win the GOP nomination if she wants to. Yet, given the numbers, there is a chunk of the electorate who will not vote for her in the general election without a change in perception about her image and credibility as a presidential candidate.

I am not sure what it will take for her to improve her image with those people she needs to appeal to, but she needs to concentrate on doing that if she wants to win the general one day. I said a few days ago serving in the senate would be one way of doing it (worked for Hillary and Obama). However, it doesn't look like that's what she has in mind.

[SuziQ]

I have to laugh at these folks saying Sarah isn’t ‘fit’ to be President, considering the person occupying that office right now.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

To me it boils down to one thing: you can't beat somebody with nobody, and you can't beat a sitting president with anyone but a governor - no senator has ever beat a sitting president, and among the few senators who won the presidency only Warren G. Harding defeated a governor.

Palin is a (soon to be former) governor. The only realistic competition is Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and some lesser-known governors. In that field, ya gotta like Sarah's chances if she does the rubber chicken circuit enough to get some chits to call in.