Toomey Crushing Specter by 21 in New Poll

New Ledger ^ | April 24, 2009 | Brad Jackson

[upchuck]

In a new Rasmussen poll out today, Senator Arlen Specter is getting crushed by former Club for Growth head Pat Toomey in the 2010 Republican primary. Toomey has even broken the 50% barrier, and Specter is only viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter.

Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%.

Specter’s longtime tenure in the Senate and his support for the new administration’s bailout efforts look to be a prime factor for his loss of support among the trending conservative GOP in his state.

79% of Pennsylvania Republicans have a favorable opinion of the “Tea Party” protests against big government spending and higher taxes held across the nation last week…. 82% of Pennsylvania Republicans say that the federal government has too much money and too much power.

Those Republicans in Pennsylvania who attended the Tea Parties last week where protesting exactly what Arlen Specter has come to stand for in the last several years - Washington. That is an energy that Toomey seems to have harnessed, at least in the polls. This is a great starting point for the challenger, who is really just beginning his campaign in earnest, and may indicate a broader trend in the GOP across the country. Incumbents steeped in the mess of Washington are going to have a tough time selling their wears to Republican voters come election time.

[Impy]

Specter looks doomed even with the 3 conservative opponents.

[BillyBoy]

>> Problem with that is that Collins just got re-elected, so she’s in until 2014 and Snowe won’t be up for re-election until 2012. Seriously, what is up with Maine? <<

A better question is what is up with Maine conservatives? Collins and Snowe skate thur the primary every election cycle with no or only token opposition. When's the last time a viable conservative ran against either of them?

Freepers ranted and raved about defeating the far more conservative Lindsey Graham in 2008, while nobody lifted a finger to challenge the useless liberal Susan Collins. Maine conservatives have only themselves to blame for RINOs Senators.

[BillyBoy]

The problem I see is it looks like the poll only mentioned Specter and Toomey to Republicans, then asked Republicans which they'd prefer. Of course Specter is going to lose a two-way race to Toomey -- he only got 50% in 2004 even with Bush & Santorum full throttle on Specter's side.

But I don't see clear evidence that Specter will be defeated with the conservative "anti-Specter" vote split among many candidates, which is what Arlen Specter is probably banking on. Peg Luksik, Larry Murphy, and Pat Toomey are all currently seeking the nomination, and all three are known conservative candidates who have run statewide before (two of them against Specter -- Murphy was his '98 opponent and Toomey was '04)

Can Rassumussen point to a poll where Specter is losing by a clear margin with a "If the election was today and the candidates were Pat Toomey, Arlen Specter, Peg Luksik, and Larry Murphy, which would you vote?" scenario? Because that's the situation right now. I sure hope Specter is still trailing in such a scenario, but I have doubts. With RAT and Indy crossover and the "moderate" country-club GOP voters, Specter could probably pull 40% in a 4-way race, which is enough to win if the remaining 60% is split among 3 conservatives.

[Impy]

“Some Other Candidate” gets only 9%. But you’re right it seemingly doesn’t mention the other 2 by name. Hopefully the air will be sucked out of their campaigns by Toomey.

Luksik has some hardcore supporters around here though...

[BillyBoy]

Luksik ran as the Constitution Party nominee in a couple of elections and got record levels of support for a third party candidate, she's got a pretty loyal fan base. It can be argued she's to the right of Toomey. They also tend to have different core conservative constituents. Toomey's major background in his fiscal conservative credentials from the Club for Growth (though he's also a solid social conservative), whereas Luksik is known for her outspoken social conservative family values activism (though she's also a solid fiscal conservative). Of course Toomey has the better track record of winning elections of the two, since Luksik has never won anything. (though I'm sure her supporters will claim she's the better conservative and accuse Toomey of being the spoiler for not dropping out and "getting behind" her, just like the Oberweis crowd claimed it was all Bill Brady's fault for 2006 when both of them were to blame, and the fact Oberweis' track record was 0-3 meant nothing to them)

Larry Murphy did get a nice "anti-Specter" chuck of protest votes when he was Specter's sole challenger in 1998 -- receiving nearly 20% -- but I expect he'll drop to single digits with Luksik and Toomey both on the ballot. One of the more interesting things about his candidacy is he's the only black candidate running for Senate, and is also a staunch conservative.