Toomey Crushing Specter by 21 in New Poll

New Ledger ^ | April 24, 2009 | Brad Jackson

[Impy]

Specter looks doomed even with the 3 conservative opponents.

[BillyBoy]

>> Problem with that is that Collins just got re-elected, so she’s in until 2014 and Snowe won’t be up for re-election until 2012. Seriously, what is up with Maine? <<

A better question is what is up with Maine conservatives? Collins and Snowe skate thur the primary every election cycle with no or only token opposition. When's the last time a viable conservative ran against either of them?

Freepers ranted and raved about defeating the far more conservative Lindsey Graham in 2008, while nobody lifted a finger to challenge the useless liberal Susan Collins. Maine conservatives have only themselves to blame for RINOs Senators.

[BillyBoy]

The problem I see is it looks like the poll only mentioned Specter and Toomey to Republicans, then asked Republicans which they'd prefer. Of course Specter is going to lose a two-way race to Toomey -- he only got 50% in 2004 even with Bush & Santorum full throttle on Specter's side.

But I don't see clear evidence that Specter will be defeated with the conservative "anti-Specter" vote split among many candidates, which is what Arlen Specter is probably banking on. Peg Luksik, Larry Murphy, and Pat Toomey are all currently seeking the nomination, and all three are known conservative candidates who have run statewide before (two of them against Specter -- Murphy was his '98 opponent and Toomey was '04)

Can Rassumussen point to a poll where Specter is losing by a clear margin with a "If the election was today and the candidates were Pat Toomey, Arlen Specter, Peg Luksik, and Larry Murphy, which would you vote?" scenario? Because that's the situation right now. I sure hope Specter is still trailing in such a scenario, but I have doubts. With RAT and Indy crossover and the "moderate" country-club GOP voters, Specter could probably pull 40% in a 4-way race, which is enough to win if the remaining 60% is split among 3 conservatives.

[Impy]

“Some Other Candidate” gets only 9%. But you’re right it seemingly doesn’t mention the other 2 by name. Hopefully the air will be sucked out of their campaigns by Toomey.

Luksik has some hardcore supporters around here though...

[BillyBoy]

Luksik ran as the Constitution Party nominee in a couple of elections and got record levels of support for a third party candidate, she's got a pretty loyal fan base. It can be argued she's to the right of Toomey. They also tend to have different core conservative constituents. Toomey's major background in his fiscal conservative credentials from the Club for Growth (though he's also a solid social conservative), whereas Luksik is known for her outspoken social conservative family values activism (though she's also a solid fiscal conservative). Of course Toomey has the better track record of winning elections of the two, since Luksik has never won anything. (though I'm sure her supporters will claim she's the better conservative and accuse Toomey of being the spoiler for not dropping out and "getting behind" her, just like the Oberweis crowd claimed it was all Bill Brady's fault for 2006 when both of them were to blame, and the fact Oberweis' track record was 0-3 meant nothing to them)

Larry Murphy did get a nice "anti-Specter" chuck of protest votes when he was Specter's sole challenger in 1998 -- receiving nearly 20% -- but I expect he'll drop to single digits with Luksik and Toomey both on the ballot. One of the more interesting things about his candidacy is he's the only black candidate running for Senate, and is also a staunch conservative.