Beam Me to Planet Gore !
Posted on 03/22/2009 1:15:11 AM PDT by neverdem
Most geologists, including those in the energy business, take a REALLY long view of the earth's history including global warming and cooling cycles. Within the framework of geologic time, i.e. the earth's history, man is a very late entry and relatively small contributor to climate changes.
The current debate concerning global warming is well publicized. It features histrionic presentations of data on both sides of the issue usually by writers or politicians, with no scientific background, "interpreting" volumes of data gathered by true scientists. The arguments, for and against, have been going on for about 40 years. The earth is about 4.6 billion (4,600,000,000) years old so the debate has been going on for about 0.000001% of geologic time. Man, or at least our earliest demonstrable "human" ancestors, arrived about 2.3 million (2,300,000) years ago so "man" has been an observer of climate change for about 0.05% of geologic time.
Climate change, as measured and recorded in the fossil and rock record, as "ice ages" (global cooling) and ocean expansion (global warming) have been occurring periodically but erratically throughout geologic time from about 3.3 billion (3,300,000000) years ago or approximately 1 billion years after the earth formed. The earth basically "cooled" from its nuclear, "Big Bang", inception for over 1 billion years. At least two, multi-million year length "ice ages" occurred before the first signs of organic, carbon based life in the form of algae or pond scum. At least four more ice ages occurred from the age of pond scum, through the age of creepy crawlers, fishes, amphibians, reptiles (dinosaurs) and early mammals. In the last 1 million (1,000,000) years, during the age of man, at least 10 well documented periods of cooling have occurred. The last "ice age", lasted about 60,000 years from approximately 70,000 years ago until about 10,000 years ago. In North America, the timing and duration are determined by measuring the advance and retreat of glaciers in the fossil plant and rock records. Within these overall "ice ages", there are also shorter cycles of warming and cooling. The warmer periods, in today's vernacular, would be called "global warming."
Without question, man's use of fire (wood), dating from 1.5 million years ago; coal, from about 3000 years ago; and petroleum for the last 150 years have contributed to the most recent cycle of warming. The significance of man's activity is a part of the ongoing debate. The CO2 emissions and ozone layer changes are measurable phenomena. The so called "greenhouse effect" is an unproven theory. At worst, however, man's contribution looks to have only "sped up" the earth's natural cycles by a few decades. Obviously, a "few decades" are significant to the earth's current human population but not in terms of impacting the earth's climate history. If this speeding up process began with the first burning of petroleum 150 years ago, man's activities have affected 0.000003% of the earth's history; 0.0065% of man's history; and 1.5% of the time since the end of the last ice age.
Some evidence exists suggesting that the current phase of warming MAY have peaked in the 1970s and the earth MAY be returning to a cooling phase. Regardless of the rhetoric on either side of the arguments, man's total contribution to global climate change is negligible and probably not measurable within the context of geologic time. Instantaneous events like the asteroid or meteor strike that ended the age of dinosaurs by creating a global wide "dust cloud" or continuous volcanic eruptions that have also shrouded the earth with ash and smoke clouds have had a far greater and long lasting effect on climates. If all of man's "contribution" were to cease immediately, the net effect, measured in geologic time, on the earth's natural warming and cooling cycles would not be measurable.
www.talkorigins.org/faqs/faq-age-of-earth.html
www.studyworld.com/newsite/ReportEssay/science/Earth%5CThe-Ice-Age-36240.html
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/global_cooling_is_here_evidence_for_predicting_global_cooling_for_the_next_
http://library.thinkquest.org/26157/fire_use.html
http://ecology.com/features/originsoflife/
It is now negotiable. Depending on your carbon credits.
Seattle was 3 degrees cooler in all 2008 on average!
both sides of the issue usually by writers or politicians, with no scientific background, "interpreting" volumes of data gathered by true scientists.
Perhaps this is true in some cases but the data gathered by named scientists (ie. probably not what he means as 'true scientists', but scientists nonetheless) has been proven to be cooked either by the methods of collection (esp. temp data) or by 'steering' historic data by interpolation from computer models and in some cases, just changing the actual data to fit the politics.
Without question, man's use of fire (wood), dating from 1.5 million years ago; coal, from about 3000 years ago; and petroleum for the last 150 years have contributed to the most recent cycle of warming.
1. This is not 'without question'. In fact there are many scientist questioning this conclusion or questioning the baseline upon which this conclusion is made. The 'political' scientists that create the trend, cherry pick the starting point and now, since we've been cooling for the last 10 years, the end point as well.
2. Related to the above many actual scientists refute the "150 year cycle of warming". Giving this just 'buys into' the "Green's" premise and frankly there is no reason and no evidence to state categorically that this is the case.
I know that this is Bjorn Lomborg's position and while he may actually think this is the case, those who take this approach for 'diplomatic' intent so as to appear 'reasonable' and therefore in a position to compromise may get invited to the right parties in Washington among those who are tinted Green by their poltics, but they will find themselves as much of an enemy of the ideological Greens as Chris Horner, the late Michael Crichton, et. al.
Here’s the way I see it. The sun varies the earth’s temperature by 10s of degrees on a daily basis. We have supposedly varied it by a degree or two over how many years? The sun wins in its ability to control our climate.
One other thing that I believe to correlate, very few sunspots last year until now and we had a very mild summer and a cold winter for far longer than the last few years.
/mark
Agreed.
The only thing that is “without question” is that there has been some climate change... which is normal.
Though I think many of the alarmists will not agree that warming is “normal”.
What does seem to be true is that the data doesn’t matter. Or rather... what the data says is unimportant.
With any scientific study the important thing is how the data is interpreted. Since the real interpretation of the real data can not easily fit into a 30 second sound bite, the public will not be told the truth. In fact, I think that anything more than just one sentence is too much for the media to handle.
Therefore the lies will continue. Cap and trade will be forced down our throats and will have no effect on the climate.
o.6 dregrees over about 120 years.
up for later...
Heretic!
These "globull warming" nitwits are worried about a 2F temperature rise over the next 100 years and claim that oceans will rise and life on earth will be devastated. I read the other day that the current cooling trend equates to 11F cooling per 100 years. If this trend continues folks in 100 years will be in deep trouble.....talk about devastation!
bttt
Speaking as a social studies educator with some 20 years experience now, it seems to me that the purveyors of climate change/global warming have been hysterically screaming "societal change before it's too late" in order to get by subterfuge what they can't from the electorate on a voluntary basis. This of course being the Utopian society that is envisaged by all socialists.
My question: How close have we come to stepping off that cliff and are we teetering so far now that even a quick reverse may not be enough to forestall the destruction of our sovereignty?
The late George Carlin said it best:
The planet has been through a lot worse than us. Been through all kinds of things worse than us. Been through earthquakes, volcanoes, plate tectonics, continental drift, solar flares, sun spots, magnetic storms, the magnetic reversal of the poles...hundreds of thousands of years of bombardment by comets and asteroids and meteors, worldwide floods, tidal waves, worldwide fires, erosion, cosmic rays, recurring ice ages...And we think some plastic bags, and some aluminum cans are going to make a difference? The planet...the planet...the planet isn’t going anywhere. WE ARE!
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'No s**t, Sherlock' ping.
:’)
Every time somebody lays out the “global warming” crap, instantly I start humming this song in my head.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkbdP7sq0w8
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