Posted on 12/28/2008 6:02:56 AM PST by Kaslin
Pennsylvania voters were the center of the presidential political universe this year during both the Democratic primary and the general election.
Their concerns and culture allowed Hillary Clinton to get her groove back in the spring and, in the fall, became the battleground where John McCain made his last stand.
Now two key Pennsylvania races -- for a U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Arlen Specter, for an open seat for governor now held by Democrat Ed Rendell -- are up for grabs in 2010, although the jockeying already has begun.
Eight years ago, Pennsylvania had two Republican U.S. senators, Specter and Rick Santorum, with Republican Tom Ridge as governor. Its congressional delegation and state Legislature were also solidly GOP.
Since then, the governorship, one Senate seat and a majority of the congressional delegation have shifted to Democrats. The only thing left in GOP hands is the state Senate.
“Being out of power can be good for political parties,” says Rob Maranto, a former Villanova political scientist. “It forces you to work harder to figure out what you really need to focus on, as opposed to what is superfluous, and it forces you to find new and more capable leaders.”
In the U.S. Senate battle, Specter still feels the sting of his tough 2004 primary challenge from U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey. Specter won -- but by less than 2 percentage points. Toomey, now president of The Club for Growth, remains noncommittal about a rematch.
Chris Matthews, the anchor of MSNBC’s “Hardball” program, tops the list of potential Democrat challengers; word is that he plans to decide in the early days of the new year. Rep. Patrick Murphy, a Bucks County “Blue Dog” is considering a run; state Rep. Josh Shapiro, a rising Democrat star and Philadelphia-area reformer, also is rumored to be considering it.
“For the Dems, a lot hinges on Chris Matthews, who has name recognition but is a nonstop talker,” says Maranto. His guess is that the party’s favorite may end up being Josh Shapiro, if he can find a way to out-fund-raise Matthews: “In any event, if Specter is beaten in the Republican primary -- an outcome that is at least 50/50 -- this is likely to become a Democratic seat.”
Thanks to the state’s two-term limit, Rendell will leave an open governor’s seat.
Pennsylvanians have a long history of switching parties every eight years, which in theory gives Republicans an edge.
On the GOP side, state attorney general Tom Corbett tops the list to succeed Rendell, followed by former U.S. attorney Pat Meehan and Rep. Jim Gerlach. No sign so far of a return by former Steeler and 2006 Republican gubernatorial nominee Lynn Swann.
The top Democrats are Allegheny County executive Dan Onorato, state auditor general Jack Wagner and Kathleen McGinty, former head of the state environmental protection department.
Pennsylvania’s 2010 races will come at a key time for President Obama; they will mark his first midterm election, the first real electoral test of his political tentacles.
If Obama is successful, then he could solidify Pennsylvania’s blueness. If he is on shaky ground, then all shades of red and purple could predominate.
“I think Pennsylvania remains a competitive state that leans blue but which cannot be taken for granted,” says former University of Pittsburgh political scientist Bert Rockman.
In the run-up to the November election, everyone around the country learned that Pittsburgh and Philadelphia served as Democratic bookends to the state's conservative Republican center and northern tier. Yet if you look closely at 2008's results, the more accurate portrayal now is of Democratic Philadelphia and her collar counties in the east with virtually everything else to the west being the Republican heartland.
In 2008, Clinton and McCain both staked everything on Pennsylvania. Obama stumbled badly there in the spring but by the fall won it handily -- which might make political-thinkers believe the state is now firmly blue.
Maranto disagrees: “GOP prospects are pretty good. Pennsylvania voters are generally leery of giving all the keys to the kingdom to either party; with Rendell having the governorship for eight years and the Democrats in control in Washington, it makes it easy for a Republican to run as someone assuring the separation of powers, or else run as the outsider.
“Either way,” he says, “it should make the Republicans highly competitive in Pennsylvania -- and lots of other states.”
(Again, and again!)
Floriduh still matters too.
The way things are going, I think conservatives are about to dig themselves even deeper.
PA has gone the socialist route of NY and NJ among others. In 2010, PA’s seniors will be two years older, more boomer retirees who continue to look for government handouts. If Murtha can insult his voters and win and Obama can ridicule the gunclingers in PA and win, sorry for the doom and gloom but this state is doomed.
I’m in Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh).
I will not vote for Specter.
I see Specter’s seat turning over to the Democrats. There is so much on the line that the liberals will ensure overstuffed ballot boxes in Philadelphia for whomever the Dem candidate is.
Toomey will not challenge Specter. I think he likes throwing bombs from the sidelines too much. I hope I am wrong, but I don’t think Toomey will pull the trigger.
I see a Republican like Tom Corbett winning the governor’s seat. While I think the last 8 years of Rendell have been disastrous for Pennsylvania, his approval numbers are still incredibly high (in the 60s). That leaves an opening for Democrat as Rendell’s chosen successor......
This state (PA) has turned more blue. We have more senior citizens than any other state (except FL) who want their prescription drugs, medical care and casinos. They don’t give a hoot about anything else. We also have more ex-union members than any other state (except MI) who still think gov’t is the answer and not the problem.
The only thing holding PA slightly red over the last few years has been a decent base of devout Christians, a solid, but declining, gun culture and old-fashioned values.
After what happened this past election in Pennsylvania, I have lost all respect for the majority of its voters.
I pray I am wrong and these once great States return to sanity... but murtha proves that my prayers may be in vain.
LLS
I would call that one and a quarter, specter only counted for about a fourth.
As a Pennsylvanian, I agree with your analysis for the most part.
I think Corbett has a good shot mainly because he’s known and the Democrat contenders are not. Unless Democrats field a black candidate, the folks in Phila. and Pitts. will not be that fired up to vote on an off year.
I’m not so sure Toomey won’t give it another shot. He barely lost last time and Specter had the whole D.C. establishment, including Bush, pushing for him.
I won’t vote for Specter in the primary, period, but will stifle my gag reflex and vote for him in the general if it’s a close race and if, by Specter losing, Democrats would reach 60 in the U.S. Senate.
My fondest dream in 2010 is to see Reid be “Daschled”, regardless of what takes place in PA.
If Specter loses, I will celebrate. He has done nothing but spit in the eye of conservatives. He is one RINO deluxe I would be glad to be rid of.
Ditto that.
You should have come over to the State Forums on FR during that election. There were several calling Santorum a liberal and unreliable.
It was bizzaro-world, for sure, but an indication of how fickle many are who call themselves conservatives.
Patrick Murphy is a “Blue Dog”? He is a far-left liberal with a voting record indistinguishable from Barney Frank.
I know some truly wonderful people in PA but after Murtha, politically, PA is lost. Well, ditto for all our states that keep reelecting these retards, it’s amazing. All this after they’ve committed treason undermining morale in our troops, militating for defeat yet they are reelected when they should’ve been tarred and feathered at least tried and convicted.
The republican party had a real chance to replace the ultimate Rino—Specter—a couple of years ago when his primary challenger was a true conservative. Both Bush and Santorum campaigned for the RINO sellout, he won the primary and it cost Santorum his job. The “lesser of two evils” White House occupant of the past 8 years has done tremendous damage to the party and to those foolish enough to follow him.
It’s early, but still relevent.
PA has gone the socialist route of NY and NJ among others. In 2010, PA’s seniors will be two years older, more boomer retirees who continue to look for government handouts. If Murtha can insult his voters and win and Obama can ridicule the gunclingers in PA and win, sorry for the doom and gloom but this state is doomed.
Unfortunatly, I would have to agree.
I wouldn’t post the obituary for Pennsylvania, just yet.
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