Posted on 11/11/2008 5:38:27 AM PST by Keyes2000mt
Just "one and done" for Barack Obama's presidency? Recall an ominous passage in his otherwise joyous election-night speech: "The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even in one term." Maybe the tone was suggested by one of Obama's economic advisers like Jason Furman or Austan Goolsbee. It's the battered economy, after all, that will be President Obama's greatest domestic policy challenge. As such, it will also be his greatest political challenge, too -- but one where failure may already be baked into the cake.
That's right, the "O" in "Obama" may stand for "One Term." For starters, there's a strong chance that when voters head to the polls on Nov. 2, 2010, they likely will still think the economy is awful. Not much debate about that. (Good chance the Democrats' two-election winning streak comes to an end.) And while voters may be somewhat patient for two years, patient for four years? Really unlikely. If history is any guide at all, voters may still be terribly cranky about the economy when they cast their ballots on Nov. 6, 2012 and thus likely choose the 45th president of the United States -- be it Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal or some other Republican without "Bush" for a last name. Once again a "change" election for an impatient America. The same bad economy that doomed John McCain in 2008 will have sunk Obama, as well.
Here's the political and economic math: Let's assume the current downturn turns out to be as painful as the 1990-91 recession. It's an apt comparison. As Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Gary Stern said earlier this year," The situation we confront today is reminiscent, in several salient ways, of the headwinds environment that prevailed in the aftermath of the 1990-91 recession."
Among those "headwinds" Stern referred to: an imploding real estate bubble, a construction bust, a banking crisis, and a credit crunch. Sound familiar? The nation's gross domestic product fell 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990 and 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 1991. But even after the economy started expanding again, the unemployment rate kept rising until it hit 7.8 percent in June of 1992 vs. a low of 5.2 percent in June 1990. Recall that in January of 1992, President Bush, running for reelection, told New Hampshire voters that the economy was in "free fall" even though the economy was later shown to have grown at a robust 4.2 percent during the first quarter of that year.
See, it takes a while for people to really perceive that an economy has turned around, especially if unemployment is high. Bill Clinton won the 1992 election on the economy ("it's the economy, stupid") even though GDP had been growing for six full quarters. According to Gallup, 88 percent of Americans thought the economy was "fair" or "poor" in October 1992 with some 60 percent saying the economy was "getting worse." Two years later, it was the Democrats turn to feel the brunt of widespread economic anxiety as the Republicans captured both the House and the Senate. Even though the economy had then been growing for 14 straight quarters and the unemployment rate was down to 5.8 percent, 72 percent of Americans still thought the economy was "fair" or "poor" and 66 percent though the nation was headed in the wrong direction.
That's right 3 1/2 years after the 1990-91 recession ended, the economy was still weighing negatively on voters and hurting the incumbent political party. Is it so hard to imagine, then, that three or four years from now voters will also be unhappy about the state of the economy and blame the party in power, the Obamacrats?
And then there's this: The 2008-09 recession may actually be far nastier than its 1990-91 twin. Every day, Wall Street forecasts worsen. Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs, expects a jobless rate of 8 1/2 percent by the end of 2009 and drifting a bit higher in 2010 for the biggest cumulative rise in unemployment since the Great Depression. And over at JP Morgan Chase, economists are predicting the economy will shrink 4.0 percent this quarter and 2.0 percent during the first three months of 2009. And on top of all that, you have the $7 trillion of lost national net worth. (Think higher investment and business taxes will help?)
No wonder Obama's political advisers just told the New York Times that they're already fretting about the 2010 midterms. They may also want to worry about 2012. Team Obama shouldn't expect this election euphoria to last four years if the economy struggles and struggles. (Wait until oil prices and interest rates start rising again.)
Obama's election is often compared to that of Ronald Reagan's in 1980. Both gentlemen were voted in to fix an ailing economy. But the 1982 recession took a huge chunk out of the Gipper's popularity. He had just a 35 percent job approval rating at the start of 1983, just two months after Republicans lost 27 seats in the House in the midterm elections. But Reagan's presidency was saved by an amazing economic rebound. The economy surged at a 4.5 percent pace in 1983 and at a mind-blowing 7.2 percent clip in 1984 as unemployment dropped from a high of 10.8 percent in December 1982 to 7.2 percent in November 1984. The Long Boom was underway.
Reagan worked his magic with tax cuts. Obama is trying to do the same with government spending. But stimulus packages are only supposed to keep the recession from getting worse or morphing into a mini-depression. I don't think anyone expects that $500 billion in hot money to return America to prosperity. Only time (and the private sector) can do that, especially with a downturn caused by a credit crisisa and deflating asset bubble. And four years may not be enough time for the Obama presidency to traverse that long road or complete that steep climb.
Yes the media was 99% in tank for him and selected him (and McCain for that matter) but he won fair and square. Pelosi ran a 4 year brillant GWB strategy while Republicans had their leader force divisive democrat bills on them to split them. She kept party unity and the Moonbats/Sheenans in place to gain this power. We can still lose in 2010 if we don't fix our house and be strategic. This loss was too predictable after 2006. PLEASE LETS MAKE NEXT YEAR ANOTHER 1993!
The lamestream media. As as Southerner, even Clinton was looked down on as some sort of hick by the Eastern media establishment, as was Carter. Obama doesn't have that against him, he has his race as the ultimate shield for whatever mistakes he makes.
The ultra-libs have been waiting since November 22nd, 1963 to have one of their own back in the White House, they're not going to let this chance slip by again. That's why you see all this mushy-gushy "Camelot" crap being sold again. Reporters in their 50's and 60's used to hear stories when then were in their 20's from old editors who loved the days of the JFK administration, when they were able to protect him from everything, from the Bay of Pigs fiasco, to his sexual trysts.
Yep, Obama can either go backwards or forwards at this point on. If I were his advisors I would quickly use the current momentum of media worship whoredom to have him annointed as King of the World in Yerushalaim through an act of Congress.
We need to dare this stupid festivity and show it all off. It’s got to get up before it will go crash down.
That is my concern as well. The potential for damage is uncalculable.
We could see a repeat of 1994 and 1996. In 2010, you’ll have Republicans that flock to the polls (provided we have better leadership). Turnout will be lower for Democrats because the Political Idol won’t be running.
However, in 2012, Obama’s charisma and charm could win out.
He’s disgusted by his own base. He does not care. He’s gay, all to himself and a narcissist with his mouth open for teleprompters and others’ noises just to look good. He is empty as a Karaoke singer with a rude voice.
It’s a castle of cards, a ponzi scheme. He is going to have to bring in excited supporters in even greater numbers from abroad, or fly himself to kingship of the world to them (but they know him already and won’t apreciate), or completely go bankrupt on the scheme and retire in shame, without clothes.
Our heavy hitters for 2012 might as well wait for 2016 to take back the White House. We need a young gun like Palan or Jindal to run against Biden then in a strong position, not weakened from a loss in 2012. We need to work like crazy to narrow the Rats majorities in congress in 2010 if not take it back.
Obama actually believes that he can do the exact OPPOSITE of what has been shown to work and achieve the same results. If the 'Rats are actually so stupid to try tax increases and more government spending as a solution to an ailing economy, then they will make it sicker instead of better. And IF the GOP can deliver a CLEAR CONSERVATIVE message between now and 2010, then they stand a good chance of taking the House and Senate back.
We’re gonna give the president elect the same respect as the president before him. he he!
One term??? Don’t be surprised if he’s impeached...
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With the dims in charge of both houses of congress? He could be caught in bed with a dead girl AND a live boy and be proven a serial killer and they wouldn’t impeach him! You win the prize for absurdity of the day.
“He will get a complete pass.
EVERYTHING will be blamed on Bush”
And when that stops working, plan B kicks in:
Blame everything on white racists....
- John
True. If anyone had said on 9/11 that I will keep you safe from any terrorist attack as long as I am the President and until you vote for a change, we would have said this man is crazy or he’s living in dreamland. The oddsmakers in Vegas would have laid some serious odds against that pledge.
Yet, for the first time since the Iranian hostage situation, a President of the US had the guts to go after the murdering radicals. Perhaps few will give the man the credit due, but; he has done that, and; he told us all straight up that defeating terror caused by Islamist extremists would be a long war.
What part of long did people not get? Complacency, government dependendence, apathy, selfishness, and; yes, even the desire for more government handouts from our nation’s treasury has been the change that voters wanted. Unbelievable.
I'm still holding on to the hope he never takes the oath
This would help Obama get a second term. I do think Obama likes campaigning more than actually working, which is what he will have to do now.
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Many who knew Slick Willie well say that the only thing he understood was campaigning and that once elected he had no idea what to do next. Obama is worse, far worse than Bill Clinton at his lowest. He will make us all dream wistfully of the “Good Old Days” when we were griping about Willie. Those who have condemned G.W. Bush so mercilessly will consider suicide when they realize what has replaced the man who kept us safe for seven years.
That's one term if there are still elections in four years. What with his National Security Force for "internal security" with resources equal to the military and Obama's gun control agenda I have strong fears that we may have seen our last free election. Future elections will be like elections in the former USSR. Heil Obama.
it depends. If republicans take control of congress thus put a leash on the executive branch, then obama will win a 2nd term, but if democrats control all 3 branches up til 2012, then republicans has a good chance of winning
I think then people will wise up.
When I see the hundreds of thousands of screaming, jumping, crying, idolizing young people (in many cities) completely indoctrinated by our education system , I wonder if the majority of American voters will EVER wise up.
I sincerely hope that I'm wrong.
A) An attack, of great magnitude, on our soil.
B) Massive unemployment.
C) Or, you go to the grocery store & there isn't anything on the shelves.
Once any of those things hit hard enough, we, the people, will take matters into our own hands.
The thought that we will clean up government by the voting process is no longer feasible. Republicans & Democrats are, and have been, heading us all on the road to serfdom. We have been following them, most willingly, like lambs to the slaughter.
Brother, can you spare a dime?
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