2010 Senate Race Prospects (Recruit Early, Recruit Smart - With Names)!

Vanity | TitansAFC

[TitansAFC]

It looks as if the count will be 56-44 Democrats in the U.S. Senate in January, with Smith losing in OR and Lieberman now having to caucus with the GOP. Here is the pathway to chipping away at the seven seat we need to retake the Senate in 2010.

We need to recruit these names, recruit early, and recruit HARD:

1.) Colorado (Ken Salazar - D): Republican Former Governor Bill Owens, who didn't run in 2008 for the Senate, may run this time around, as might retired football quarterback, Republican John Elway, who hinted at a future run for office despite choosing not to run in 2008. The moment he wins the GOP nod, you can already start calling him "Senator Elway."

2.) California (Barbara Boxer - D): Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger should seek the seat, as he would be ineligible to run again in the Gubernatorial race due to term limits. He is the only hope of beating Boxer, and very well might.

3.) Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln - D): Former Governor Mike Huckabee, who was a 2008 presidential candidate, should be recruited very, very hard, since he remains a relatively well-liked figure.

4.) Illinois (Obama's old seat - TBD - D): The only man in Illinois who could win this seat has to talk his wife into letting him. Illinois demi-god Mike Ditka, a hardcore, Conservative Republican, would win this seat. We just have to convince Mike and Mrs. Ditka to run.

5.) Indiana (Evan Bayh - D): If Bayh retires, Mike Pence could win this seat. If Bayh does not retire, he is unbeatable in Indiana.

6.) Hawaii (Daniel Inouye - D): May retire - will win re-election if he does not. In the event of a retirement, the GOP should push monstrously hard for popular Governor Linda Lingle to run for Senate.

7.) Nevada (Harry Reid - D): The Senate Majority Leader will seek a fifth term. In 2004, he was reelected with 61% of the vote. That year, Republicans did not put up a formidable challenger. Potential Republican candidates include former Governor Kenny Guinn, Representative Dean Heller, former Representative Jon Porter or 2004 candidate Richard Ziser. Guinn might be the strongest challenger to Reid but will be 74 in 2010, three years Reid's senior. Porter had been viewed as the most likely to run as he had been interested since 2004 and been planning a run, but following his defeat for re-election to his House seat in 2008, he may no longer run.

8.) North Dakota (Byron Dorgan - D): Three term Senator Byron Dorgan may retire. He will be 68 years old in 2010. Dorgan, who represents the conservative state of North Dakota, may be vulnerable if he runs for reelection. Potential Republican candidates are Governor John Hoeven, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, and his brother, State Senate Majority Leader Bob Stenehjem. All have very high approval ratings, including Dorgan. John Hoeven would win easily, and should be pushed HARD to run.

And how to win the Presidency in 2012:

Whoever wins the nod needs to nominate Florida Senator Mel Martinez for V.P. Popular, Latino, Swing State. You heard it here first.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Yeah, the RINO-endorsements of Landrieu were particularly horrible this time, from the Jeff Parish sheriff to the parish president of St. Tammany. Kennedy himself wasn't the perfect candidate, unfortunately his 04 run as a Dem did come back to haunt him when Mary painted him as "confused."

A rather ludicrous charge given that quite a number of current GOP officials/candidates, et al, were running as Dems in recent years when running as a Republican was an impossible task in the state.

"I'm afraid Kennedy holding Mary to 52%-46% was actually well ahead of what he might have done, he wasn't close in most polls, but he was riding the McCain wave and probably picked up a lot of votes."

At first, I thought Zimmer in NJ would go higher, but he ended up at about 43%.

"(As it was, Kennedy did win the Alexandria area, which Landrieu won last time if I remember right)"

If you're referring exclusively to Rapides Parish, Landrieu has never carried it in her 3 runs (47% in '96; 46% in '02; 45% last Tuesday). These were the maps for the races (remember I don't use the newsspeak, Red is Democrat here):

1996.

2002.

2008.

"I think Kennedy just didn't have a powerful enough message other than, "I'm the conservative, she's the big-spending liberal."

Of course, if the rodents can win on the vacuous and meaningless mantra of "change", that is a helluva lot more specific and substantive...

"But hey, we still gave it a go down here (plus we got the Baker seat back!)."

Presuming it's not swapped for the McCrery seat... And why can't we sack Melonball ? Why did Tauzin try that boneheaded deal of trying to install his unqualified kid ? Ugh.

"Unlike say, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and Iowa, where the GOP just conceded them all. Meanwhile, the Dems are winning states like Oregon and North Carolina with virtual nobodies..."

I'd have put the guy in charge of Senate recruitment this cycle in front of a firing squad for dereliction of duty. What a f*cking embarrassment.

[JohnnyZ]

AK - Little Lisa won't get a strong primary challenge. She's done a lot of fence-mending, and the GOP has enough work to do replacing Stevens and maybe Young.

KY - I would really like Geoff Lucas to run. Richie Farmer ran on his sports 'career'. Maybe Grayson, but he should stay in state govt for now.

ME - Snowe is safe. Collins just destroyed Allen in a Democrat year by calling him a party line liberal (which he is). Baldacci's popularity really suffered during his governorship.

GA - Isakson will stay put.

NC - Burr will be fine. Saved by the Democrat majority.

OK - I could see Tom Cole running.

Republicans got in extra hot water after taking control of the Senate and controlling the trifecta. If you're in the majority and not planning on accomplishing anything useful, it's often better just to have divided govt so you're not stuck with the blame for your incompetence, and Republicans have been paying for it for two elections now, until the shoe is firmly on the other foot. I'm not sure how many gains Republicans will make in 2010, but losses will be scarce.

[JohnnyZ]

KY - I would really like Geoff DAVIS to run (those Davis-Lucas races confuzzled me!) Richie Farmer ran on his sports 'career'. Maybe Grayson, but he should stay in state govt for now.

[Norman Bates]

Dodd is not running for re-election. Hoeven seems to relish his spot as the longest serving governor. It will get even longer. But we need to take back these senate seats in “blue” states.

How many former governors do we have out there than can run for some of these seats? You mentioned J.Bush, Pataki, and Ehrlich (I agree Ehrlich needs to unseat O’Malley). Owens, Huckabee. There are many.

If Zero’s star fades our opportunity in 2010 will be vast. The possibility of taking out a Schumer, or taking back Zero’s seat, cannot be passed up. We need to groom Ditka and Elway as well.

[Impy]

“As it is, the Republicans are almost exclusively confined to the Little Rock area (4 counties in a line from east to west, from Garland’s Hot Springs through to Lonoke) and the NW corner and Ozarks along the MO and OK border. It’s almost impossible to find any elected Republicans outside those two areas (there were a few that made some breakthroughs, but the numbers shrunk down to just 25% of the House after hitting the 30% mark in 2000).”

Wow Pathetic, thanks HUcK.

It’s time for this to change. In Arkansas and West Virginia.

[Impy]

LOL I was gonna start a thread like this myself.....

I don’t think Joe Liberalman will indeed support the GOP.

+7 or 8 won’t happen even with a 94 type landslide. Can’t even guarantee a net gain in the senate. This next cycle is not target rich like the ‘12 and ‘14 ones will be, GOP holds the majority of them already. Opens rat seats are paramount since we suck at beating incumbents (this needs to change).

My early take

ALABAMA-Safe open or not

ALASKA-Safe, we love you Alaska, no rats EVER! I get the idea Lisa is trying to buddy up to Palin. If Stevens and Young can’t lose a primary she won’t.

ARIZONA-

Unless she lands a cabinet post I expect the Popular!?! Lesbian Governor to run. Of course as we know popular GOP Governors never seem to run....if not her, maybe AG Goddard although I expect him to run fro Governor as rat AGs always do.

I think McPain will call it quits but if not....still a tossup with janet imo, he’s wearing out his welcome, underperformed in AZ against Obama. The other rats probably wouldn’t risk their current jobs to battle McCain.

Flake and Shadegg (maybe house leadership would be better for him) are top choices. I know little about the statewide officeholding Republicans.

I call midterm hold if Janet doesn’t run.

ARKANSAS

Lincoln likely can’t lose unless she gets some hard left stink on her from Reid/Obama.

I HATE Huckabee, I’d support him for this office though but he is NOT gonna run.

A respectable showing, win or not would be nice. No BYE like Pryor got.

California

I hate Arnold “Tax hikes don’t make you socialist” Swatrezcantspellit

Smooth talker, liberal record.

For a legislative seat I’d back him and I give him a shot against Boxer. Otherwise the seat is SAFE D. Does he even really want the job?

Colorado

Rat trends and fraud give Salazar a good-sized edge.

Bill Owens? Retread? Highly unlikely anyway.

Schaffer, I really like the guy.

Titans mentions JOHN ELWAY, sounds like a dream but that would be a fantastic recruitment. We see know the power of celebrity.

Connecticut

GOP base voted Lieber rather and the party could find a real candidate for a winnable 3-way race.

RINO Rell could win (not certain imo) no other Repub is likely to.

Florida

I didn’t know Martinez was in such bad shape.

Tossup/free for all if open. Jeb Would win, but would be run?

Castor in second bid/Alex Sink/Wexler possible rats.

How about veteran state office holder Charlie Bronson for a Jeb-less open seat?

Georgia-

I don’t recall what Chambliss screwed up. I think Isakson is safe. One of the black rats in state office could possibly make a go at it though. John Oxendine is likely the next Governor.

Hawaii

I think the rat will die office and not retire.

Lingle has a shot at an open seat.

Idaho-

Safe as long as Sali isn’t the nominee for some reason :/

Illinois

The Jackson name is fairly toxic, so it’s him or we get Ditka we have a shot, otherwise, not likely, :( the party will be focusing on a desperate bid to win the Governorship.

Indiana

Birch Evans III is safe, open seat leans R.

IA

Chuck is safe, open seat is a probably a tilt D situation. Steve King is great. Latham and 1 of the 2 statewide Repubs are other possible nominees.

Kansas

Th rat guv is strong candidate, but I don’t think she’d win. Dennis Moore another potential rat.

Kentucky

I don’t think the rats can win an open seat. Retire old man.

Louisiana

Boustany/Kennedy/Alexander

I think only Mitch could win it for the rats but brother and sister in senate? Eww.

Maryland

Likely safe D.

Steele should move into CD-1 and run for the house if he doesn’t run for Governor.

Missou

Tossup if open (sigh), Bond not likely to lose. I like Steelman and would give Talent another shot if polling is favorable. Carnaspawn likely opposition indeed.

Nevada

If Reid wasn’t challenged in ‘04 why would they in ‘10 after the state has gone rattastic? Ensign is practically best buds with Larry Mead now.

NH

Gregg verus Lynch is a tossup imo, Lynch in an open seat, but a ribbon on it for him. :/

NY

Safe D

Rudy for Gov or Mayor.

NC

Burr will be challenged, but I predict he’ll break the curse. Dole didn’t lose due to her (R).

ND

Open seat goes R. Finally. (but no cakewalk)

Dorgan is safe if he runs. Please quit.

Ohio

RINO scum will win if he runs.

Open seat would be a tossup.

Oklahoma

Republicahoma is safe imo. I don’t think Boren would leave his safe (:() house seat. Henry could make a go, but I don’t think he’ll win baring a 1934-style midterm.

Oregon

Party is incompetent here. Poor Smith is out. Safe D. Longest consecutive rat held Governorship will likely be the priority for what’s left of the OR GOP.

Penn

If Arlen Runs expect a strong challenge and a close race.

Fast Ed would be favored for an open seat but said he’s not running for office again. Plenty of rat possibles.

AG Corbett will run for Governor instead. Schweiker should have ran for governor in 02.

Maybe Barletta for senate? Gerlach?

SD

Herseth (not guilty, maybe the only one) could win if she runs. I don’t expect her to.

Utah-

Safe

Matheson won’t risk it and wouldn’t win.

Vermont

Safe D

I don’t expect Douglas to run or crack 45% if he does.

Washington

Third statewide run for Rossi? AG McKenna? We need to target this one.

Wisconsin

Feingold can be beat. Paul Ryan please.

Maine? This is a 2012 race.

Rino Snowe is safe, I think she’s the more popular of the 2 twins. Baldacci is no threat imo his reelection was underwhelming. Only a “we need this seat to secure our rat senate control” argument could dislodge Snowe (and even that is not likely)

[Impy]

Wait, a greenie won a state house seat? Ha.

[Spiff]

Flake and Shadegg (maybe house leadership would be better for him) are top choices. I know little about the statewide officeholding Republicans.

Flake is just about the most pro-amnesty for illegal aliens Republican in the House of Representatives. Steer clear.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"NC - Burr will be fine. Saved by the Democrat majority."

Yeah, but Dole was supposed to be fine, too. And I can't believe NC elected a half-witted twit as Governor (Easley and Hunt notwithstanding). BTW, how many of the Constitutional officers did we win there ? Did Merritt, Troxler & Berry hold on ?

"OK - I could see Tom Cole running."

Tom Cole can eat dirt. His embarrassing leadership of the NRCC/party recruitment for the House was one of the worst in the past 50 years.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Dodd is not running for re-election."

I'll believe it when I see it... The guy is a Watergate baby, he wouldn't know what to do with himself outside of the Senate.

"How many former governors do we have out there than can run for some of these seats? You mentioned J.Bush, Pataki, and Ehrlich (I agree Ehrlich needs to unseat O’Malley). Owens, Huckabee. There are many."

A number of them, but there are drawbacks with some of them (age concerns and/or plain suitability). Some don't like Jeb Bush, but frankly he fulfilled most of what I consider the goals and obligations of a sitting Governor (namely maintaining or growing your party on your watch and passing it off to a party successor -- for all that he got a big "A." His successor is another story, though. Crist willfully and deliberately cost the ticket Florida with stunts like felons voting. That is so beyond f*cked I don't know what to say). Pataki I just don't think could win a Senate seat and he was only fair to mediocre as Governor.

Ehrlich was in a tough spot in a VERY difficult state for us. After all, he was the first GOP Governor since Agnew (and even Agnew only won a plurality in 1966 in a 3-way race and was more liberal than the Democrat nominee, a Wallaceite). I appreciate that he didn't cut and run when it looked tough in '06, and that scored him big points with me. Dying with your boots on politically speaking is behavior that SHOULD be rewarded. Whichever office he chooses to run for, he should be backed. Owens of CO and Huckster are simply non-starters. Owens quite literally turned a solid Republican state into a rodent one and he was a terrible Governor (a decade ago he was talked up as Presidential material). I can review the Governors (former or otherwise) by state if you wish...

"If Zero’s star fades our opportunity in 2010 will be vast. The possibility of taking out a Schumer, or taking back Zero’s seat, cannot be passed up. We need to groom Ditka and Elway as well."

Quite so. But if our party keeps acting stupid as it has in the past two cycles, that opportunity may be passed up once again...

[Impy]

Oh, very disappointing.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yup. A VERY Caucasian Greenie who oddly had no on-the-ballot Democrat opposition (nor Republican) in a BLACK North Little Rock district. I think Maine is the only other state currently with a Greenie in the legislature.

[Norman Bates]

As a Senator Owens and Huck wouldn’t be responsible for growing the state party. Look, we need a GOP butt in the seat. It’s as simple as that!

[fieldmarshaldj]

"I don’t think Joe Liberalman will indeed support the GOP."

He really doesn't have anywhere else to go. He won't win the Dem nomination EVER again in CT. Republicans elected him. He just needs to get it over with and move rightward.

"ARIZONA-"

Yes, Goddard will go for Governor. His dad was a one-term wonder who won in 1964 (Goldwater was able to carry Paul Fannin into his seat, but not Dick Kleindienst), but lost in '66 (2-year terms back then) in the anti-LBJ backlash.

"Flake and Shadegg"

Flake is pro-shamnesty, as another FReeper told you and Shadegg went for the bailout. I can't support either now.

"California"

No, Ah-nold said he wasn't going to run against Boxer. Besides, he's going to be too busy helping the RODENT win his office in 2010.

"Colorado"

Elway was mentioned, but I have trouble handicapping sports figures (since I know about as much about sports as too many Americans know about political history -- zilch). They're wild cards. Tancredo is running for Governor, but I can't support him. Slick Willard will no doubt "hep" him out so that he can then repay him again to support the RINO Anti-Christ for President in 2012. I'd rather keep the Dem, since at least he's honest about his party affiliation.

"Florida"

Bronson ? I don't know. Outgoing House Speaker (and fellow Cubano) Marco Rubio may take a run.

"Georgia-"

Chambliss screwed up on BOTH shamnesty and the bailout. He may very well break precedent and lose the runoff because a lot of GA Republicans are enraged with his NON-Conservative votes.

"Illinois"

If the IL GOP runs Ray LaTHUG for Governor, they deserve to lose. The False Messiah should kiss his foot for helping get him the Senate seat and the Presidency-cum-Dictatorship. But it's all in Blago's hands now. He could choose somebody from "outside the box" (hell, even himself).

"Kansas"

I think the Gov had a better shot had McCain won. You're right that Moore may try for it (and he'll try to bequeath his House seat to former KC Mayor Carol Marinovich).

"Kentucky"

Oh, the rodents very well can win. You're forgetting who Ben Chandler is. His grandfather served as both Governor and Senator. Chandler almost was elected Governor against Fletcher and got Fletcher's House seat as a consolation prize. He's already won statewide twice as Attorney General. Chandler will be tough to beat.

"Louisiana"

Mitch won't run for the Senate, that's too much even for Louisiana folks. As Galactic Overlord told me, Jay Dardenne, the GOP Sec of State may opt to go for Vitter's seat.

"Maryland"

Steele running for the House ? I don't know about that. Problem is that he made a serious error in judgment backing the backstabbing traitor Gilchrest over Harris (Ehrlich backed Harris). I think it's Harris's honor to seek a rematch against fluke winner Kravotil (or whatever his name is). That seat shouldn't have been lost. Y'know, I think the GOP ought to sue Gilchrest for the money they've given to support him over the years for his treachery.

"Missouri"

Talent is too risky given his two losses. He simply shouldn't have lost in 2006.

"Nevada"

Gibbons could've beaten Reid in '04 and deliberately chose not to, so we had no serious candidate. This time there is no excuse. Reid is a menace.

"North Carolina"

Burr might break the curse, but he'd better hustle. Dole's loss was a bad sign and so was the Governorship.

"Oklahoma"

That'll be Boren's best shot. His dad was Governor and Senator (and grandfather was a Congressman). I'd like to see us get that House seat back.

"Oregon"

Actually, Washington has the longest Dem hold. Vic Atiyeh was elected in '78 and reelected in '82 and left office in 1987. John Spellman won in 1980 in WA and was beaten by Booth Gardner in '84 despite the Reagan landslide (his RINO inclinations spelled doom for him). Of course, technically the Virgin Islands has gone even longer, their last Republican won in 1970 and left in '75 (although a crypto-R Indy won in '94).

"Pennsylvania"

Forgot the sleazy Chris Matthews is pondering a run for the Senate. Hell, if the talentless Franken can do it...

"South Dakota"

Steph may be waiting, as is the Gov, for Johnson to buy it and run for the special. It was shameful we didn't aggressively target the seat this year.

"Washington"

McKenna ? He's an ultra-RINO who aided the theft by the rodents of the Governorship.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Norm, I just wrote up a whole piece yesterday on the damage Huckster inflicted in Arkansas. Owens was almost equally as bad (in fact, in some ways worse — he took a SOLID Republican state and turned it to the rodents and handed the Governorship to a liberal scumbag on a silver platter). In fact, had Owens run for President, I’d have targeted him as relentlessly as I did Slick Willard.

As the sole Republicans of the “troika” of offices (2 Senators and Governor) were they to win, they’d be back in as de facto heads of the parties. That simply cannot be allowed to happen. You don’t reward willfully incompetent and destructive RINOs. It’s as simple as that.

[Clintonfatigued]

As for Arkansas, if Boozman doesn’t run, the GOP would be well advised to look at state Senators Ruth Whittaker and Sharon Trusty.

[Impy]

I assume there was some ballot controversy with the rat. I’m shocked any judge would allow a black dem to kept off the ballot.

[Impy]

He really doesn't have anywhere else to go. He won't win the Dem nomination EVER again in CT. Republicans elected him. He just needs to get it over with and move rightward.

He better if he does come over, we don't need a new RINO Emperor.

No, Ah-nold said he wasn't going to run against Boxer. Besides, he's going to be too busy helping the RODENT win his office in 2010.

If terrible RINO Steve Poizner or Tom Campbell is the GOP nominee I'm sure Swartzy would support them. :/

Outgoing House Speaker (and fellow Cubano) Marco Rubio may take a run.

Good. Great to see the Cubans stuck with the GOP this year rather than elect Castroites.

You're right that Moore may try for it (and he'll try to bequeath his House seat to former KC Mayor Carol Marinovich).

I'm calling Moore the rat's version of Anne Northup. We need to beat him to take back the house.

But it's all in Blago's hands now. He could choose somebody from "outside the box" (hell, even himself).

Good move for him to appoint himself. Latest rat who wants his current job, Daley's brother.

Chandler will be tough to beat.

If the climate is favorable I think he'd lose. If it's not....we could suffer another net loss.

Steele running for the House ? I don't know about that.

I was thinking he needs a job if he's to remain a relevant player in GOP politics. Besides appearing on Fox I don't know what he's been up too.

That'll be Boren's best shot. His dad was Governor and Senator (and grandfather was a Congressman). I'd like to see us get that House seat back.

Mouse Boren should be targeted to switch.

Forgot the sleazy Chris Matthews is pondering a run for the Senate. Hell, if the talentless Franken can do it...

The regular rats in PA won't give him the nomination like they did in Minnesota. And no one likes Tweety as the DUmmies call him.

Steph may be waiting, as is the Gov, for Johnson to buy it and run for the special. It was shameful we didn't aggressively target the seat this year.

Indeedy. Doesn't look like he'll die now.

McKenna ? He's an ultra-RINO who aided the theft by the rodents of the Governorship.

Well that explains his easy reelection. Pr*ck!

[Impy]

Oh and you don’t need to know anything about sports, all you need to know is that successful sports figures are loved by the local populace and the have name recognition.

That’s why despite his age we needed Coach Osborne to run against Ben Nelson. And it was a testament to surprising good judgment that he lost the gubernatorial primary to the new incumbent who had done nothing to warrant losing the job and was better on the key issue of tuition for illegals.

[RightMike]

Brownback is running for Governor and Moran has already announced for the Senate.