Posted on 11/06/2008 7:54:41 AM PST by TitansAFC
Nevada — two words.
Steve Wynn.
He’s a billionaire and was on TV within the past few months saying people like him had to start stepping up.
Sorry, dude. Huckster did to the AR GOP far worse than what Owens did to the CO GOP. Thanks to him, it may be a decade or more before we ever win a statewide office. The federal delegation shrank from 50% to 16.6% on his watch. He crippled the legislative numbers, which also shrank. He championed illegals, hiked taxes more than Clinton and RETAINED Clinton-Tucker Democrat government hacks (so many, in fact, that the incoming Dem Governor hardly fired anyone). All in all, Huckster was a DISASTER as Governor.
I couldn’t agree with you more about Huckabee as governor (although he was a champion for home-schooling). But as a senator, he wouldn’t be a RINO. As long as he doesn’t have to meet a payroll and can be kept from proposing any legislation, he would be fine.
Problem here is that assuming he ran and won as Senator, he would become de facto head of the state GOP, and he already demonstrated that he wanted only yes-men and non threats to his “authority” (stunts like running his wife for Sec of State). He would make sure only VERY weak GOP candidates for all the other offices would be allowed to run, and then they’d all predictably lose. The only reason we had the other successes in the ‘90s with Tim Hutchinson for Senate and the late Win Paul Rockefeller for Lt Governor was because the former had national backing that went over Huckster’s head and the latter had deep pockets to run independently.
I don’t want to see him as Senator, because that would be the enormous cost to his getting elected. I’d rather cultivate a farm team of GOP candidates for the future, the team that he SHOULD’VE been creating in the ‘90s and wasn’t. It’s astonishing that Mississippi and Louisiana jumped far ahead of Arkansas in GOP numbers, since both were even less GOP than AR was not long ago, but now we dominate those states while AR has a GOP weaker than any other Southern state, the weakest since 1966 (and even then, we had THREE prominent Republicans elected, Congressman Hammerschmidt, Gov. Rockefeller & Lt Gov Footsie Britt), and now have only 1 single Republican, Congressman John Boozman holding the ultra-GOP district that has been that way since 1966.
Yes, you’re right about his high-handed management of the party into oblivion. That is truly Huckabee’s legacy to Arkansas Republicans.
I think now is the time to organize. My county, traditionally Democrat, went narrowly for McCain-Palin this year (at least it appears so far) yet went for Kerry in 2004. I’m going to compare vote totals from national/state/local races to see what kind of disconnect between the Democrats and the Arkansas voters can be nurtured.
Local organization will take awhile, but I want to start now so we’ll be ready when Zero the Magnificent starts stumbling and buyer remorse sets in.
What’s sad about the squandered legacy under Huckster is that the GOP had a premier opportunity with term limits implemented in the ‘90s to make substantial gains in the legislature, and most importantly in the rural areas. As it is, the Republicans are almost exclusively confined to the Little Rock area (4 counties in a line from east to west, from Garland’s Hot Springs through to Lonoke) and the NW corner and Ozarks along the MO and OK border. It’s almost impossible to find any elected Republicans outside those two areas (there were a few that made some breakthroughs, but the numbers shrunk down to just 25% of the House after hitting the 30% mark in 2000).
Upon just reviewing the AR Sec of State website, I see we gained 3 seats in the House (29th, 42nd, 49th) to go up to 28, which you’d be interested to know that’s the first time we had a positive gain in the legislature since 2000, but still below the highest number we held from 2001-05. The 3 gains we made, however, were still basically in those same areas I cited above. The 29th & 42nd in the L.R. suburbs, but the 49th in White County is now the easternmost county to have a GOP Rep. There still are zero in the southern 3rd of the state and in the East/NE. I believe we had one member from the Texarkana area in the late ‘90s/early ‘00s and another up in Poinsett or Craighead, IIRC, at the same time. We even had a Black Republican member from Fort Smith, Dr. Kevin Penix, but he retired just after a single term in 2004.
More appalling, though, is the fact the GOP didn’t even bother to field candidates in a jaw-dropping 61 seats ! Even the Green Party managed to elect a member in the 39th district (North Little Rock) which I think is a Black district, and the winner is White.
I see in the Senate we gained zilch, still stuck at the same 8 seats (out of 35) we’ve had since 2000, the last year we made any gains, and means we have even less a percentage of Republican Senators than House members. And we didn’t bother contesting 12 of 18 seats.
As you’re well aware, we didn’t even contest Pryor’s Senate seat, which we held 6 years ago, and didn’t bother with the other 3 House seats (for which we could win ALL of them, since they all voted GOP for President, or at least did in 2004). The Green Party contested more Congressional races than we did (3 out of 4), including the Senate (and no doubt, some disgruntled Republicans probably cast protest votes for the Green candidates).
In any event, I wish you good luck in getting involved with local GOP politics. The whole state party needs a gigantic kick in the butt. How Missouri to the north and Louisiana in the South could now have Republican majorities in one or both bodies of their legislatures while Arkansas gets left behind to numbers disproportionate to the actual number of voting Republicans is shameful. Over here in TN, we just finally took the House after 4 decades of Democrat gerrymandering (of course, deposing our tyrannical Dem Speaker is the next challenge in January).
They are MANUFACTURING VOTES right before our eyes.
This is my take.
AL- Richard Shelby can have another term if he wants it, but he may retire.
AK- Lisa Murkowski won’t be seriuosly opposed. If Democrats couldn’t pick up seats this year, they won’t defeat her.
AZ- John McCain will retire. Possible ‘Rats include Governor Janet Napolitano and Congressman Harry Mitchell. There are many possible Republicans.
AR- Blanche Lambert is favored, but secure. She underpolled against a second-tier opponent in 2004.
CA- A race between Boxer and The Terminator would be great political theater, to say the least. Of course, Arnold Schwarzenegger has serious credibility problems with conservatives. But even he’s preferable to the ultra-partisan, ultra-politically correct incumbent.
CO- Ken Salazar is favored, but not secure. Too soon to speculate on the field.
CT- Chris Dodd has been damaged with publicity about the Countrywide scandal. How damaged is unclear at this time. RINO Governor Jodi Rell would have a good chance against anyone the ‘Rats run, if she can be persuaded to run.
FL- What a mess. Mel Martinez barely won in 2004 and has low approval ratings. His Open Borders immigration policy doesn’t help. He may retire rather than face a tough race and perhaps a tough primary.
GA- Johnny Isakson thought about running for Governor, but passed. He’s probably safe.
HA- Dan Inouye is likely to retire, when he’ll be 86. Governor Linda Lingle will run if he retires, and be a strong candidate. Possible ‘Rats include Congressman Neil Aboercrombie and retired General Eric Shinseki.
ID- Mike Crapo is safe.
IL- Who will replace Barack Obama in the Senate? Will Republicans seriuosly contest the race? Too soon to say.
IN- Will Evan Bayh be seriously opposed? Governor Mitch Daniels is said to have Senate ambitions.
IA- Charles Grassley can have another Senate term if he wants it. But does he want it? He’s getting up there in years. All bets are off until he decides.
KS- Sam Brownback will not seek another term. Kathleen Selebius is a possible candidate, and Republicans are hoping Congressman Jerry Moran runs. A key race.
KY- Republicans are hoping that the erratic Jim Bunning retires. Congressman Ben Chandler is a possible candidate for Democrats.
LA- David Vitter may step down. A number of Republicans are looking at the race. Democrats are eyeing the race closely, but have no obvious choice yet.
ME- Olympia Snowe is safe.
MD- Barbara Mikulski may retire. A number of Democrats will run if she does. Republicans are hoping that ex-Governor Robert Erlich makes a bid, but he may seek to regain his old office.
MO- Will Chris Bond retire? He may. Possible Republicans include ex-state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and ex-Senator Jim Talent. Democrats have many potential candidates, but none stand out yet.
NV- Harry Reid was almost as big a winner as Barack Obama. He engineered the defeat of the most mentioned potential rival (Jon Porter) and delivered a big margin for Obama. But his approval are not good.
NH- Will Democrats try to unseat Judd Gregg? Only John Lynch could do it.
NY- Chuck Schumer was damaged by his role in the Wall Street failures, but fatally so. The only Republican who would have a chance would be Rudy Giuliani. But if Giuliani runs for anything, it will be Govenror.
NC- Defeating Elizebeth Dole has emboldened NC Democrats. Richard Burr will be seriously challenged, though his opponent is unclear.
ND- Byron Dorgan is expected to retire. A race between John Hoeven and Earl Pomeroy is what’s currently extected.
OH- Will George Voinovich run? He irks conservatives, but Republicans in Ohio are in bad shape right now.
OK-Tom Coburn is secure.
OR- Ron Wyden is secure.
PA- Arlen Sepcter says he’ll run yet again, but most are not convinced that he’ll stick it out. A key race, but who will run is unclear in both parties.
SC- Jim DeMint is probably secure.
SD- John Thune is probably secure.
UT- Robert Bennett may retire. Until he decides, all bets are off.
VT- Pat Leahy is secure (ugh).
WA- Patty Murray is a lightweight and even her fellow liberals privately admit it. She could face a serious opponent, but it’s not a given. Would Dino Rossi consider it or is he burned out on campaigning?
WI- Herb Kohl is secure if he runs again.
I’m hoping that if Boozman doesn’t run (he probably won’t), than a charismatic state legislator or local officeholder runs and makes a good impresssion. That would be the beginning of a farm team.
John Elway was smart not to run in 2008. This year was a Democratic tsunami. However, Elway will be in great shape and should win the Senate easily in 2010 if he wants it.
“IL- Who will replace [Zero] in the Senate? Will Republicans seriuosly contest the race? Too soon to say.”
Mark Kirk and, yes, Mike Ditka (again) is being floated. This will be a major pickup opportunity for us when Zero’s star fades.
The One wants Blago to appoint another black in his Senate. It will be Jesse Jr. and Oberweis may run for the seat.
The Kos Kids are touting Heath Schuler to challenge Burr.
Janet Nappy may not run for the Senate. Nappy might be Attorney General or be appointed to the Federal bench.
With the RATS in absolute power, he is going to have a more visibile face. If the economy keeps tanking, Reid may be in trouble even from a 2nd tier challenger. Many of our guys lost to 2nd or even 3rd tier challengers.
Elway has a major opportunity in ‘10 when Zero’s star fades. He ought to be groomed immediately so that he comes off as a serious candidate.
Chissy butt “Tingle” Matthews has said he is interested in Specter’s PA seat. That said, as mush as Spec is a RINO, since he is the best opportunity on keeping the seat I support his run for reelection.
"AL- Richard Shelby can have another term if he wants it, but he may retire."
The talk is Shelby retires to run for the open Governorship in 2010. Gov. Riley might then decide to make a return to DC.
"AK- Lisa Murkowski won’t be seriuosly opposed. If Democrats couldn’t pick up seats this year, they won’t defeat her."
She has a bigger problem with a primary challenge. Alaska is like a reverse Dem state, they will elect a convicted felon Republican before ANY Democrat...
"AZ- John McCain will retire. Possible ‘Rats include Governor Janet Napolitano and Congressman Harry Mitchell. There are many possible Republicans."
Who knows ? Maybe McCain may stick around, but he showed vulnerability with his lackluster performance there and the state managed to go majority Democrat (5-3) with its House delegation for the first time in 44 years. Butch Nappy might have her eye on DC, indeed, and I'm not sure whom is the best candidate to run.
"AR- Blanche Lambert is favored, but secure. She underpolled against a second-tier opponent in 2004."
We were discussing Huckster as a challenger, but it would not come without a substantial downside, especially in that he choked the state GOP worse than a teenage boy with his unit. Only Boozman is a high-enough profile candidate, but he doesn't stand out much. We have no farm team in AR, so perhaps looking to someone in the private sector to run ?
"CA- A race between Boxer and The Terminator would be great political theater, to say the least. Of course, Arnold Schwarzenegger has serious credibility problems with conservatives. But even he’s preferable to the ultra-partisan, ultra-politically correct incumbent."
Ah-nold is one of the worst RINO Governors in the country who not only has zero credibility, but has moved on to about the temperature of outer space. CA remains a serious problem for any Republican running statewide. The place has lurched hard-left since the '90s.
"CO- Ken Salazar is favored, but not secure. Too soon to speculate on the field."
The guy who just lost on Tuesday deserves a shot, but he needs to start raising money -- now.
"CT- Chris Dodd has been damaged with publicity about the Countrywide scandal. How damaged is unclear at this time. RINO Governor Jodi Rell would have a good chance against anyone the ‘Rats run, if she can be persuaded to run."
Rell is an idiot and completely useless. On her watch, the CT GOP has flatlined to Massachusetts proportions. I seriously doubt she could dislodge her bowels, let alone Dodd. The Dems only keep her around because she serves their purposes.
"FL- What a mess. Mel Martinez barely won in 2004 and has low approval ratings. His Open Borders immigration policy doesn’t help. He may retire rather than face a tough race and perhaps a tough primary."
If he runs again as the general election nominee, he WILL lose. Though distasteful to some, I say run Jeb Bush.
"GA- Johnny Isakson thought about running for Governor, but passed. He’s probably safe."
Chambliss was supposed to be safe, too... He'd better consider looking out on his right flank.
"HA- Dan Inouye is likely to retire, when he’ll be 86. Governor Linda Lingle will run if he retires, and be a strong candidate. Possible ‘Rats include Congressman Neil Aboercrombie and retired General Eric Shinseki."
Inouye and Akaka will be carried out feet-first. Lingle may give it a shot, but it's very hard for GOP candidates there running for federal offices.
"ID- Mike Crapo is safe"
So it seems. Depends upon whether he likes serving in the minority.
"IL- Who will replace Barack Obama in the Senate? Will Republicans seriuosly contest the race? Too soon to say."
Pressure is on Blago to appoint Je$$e Jack$on, Jr. Mike Ditka could try to make up for his mistake in not running in '04 and rescue the GOP. It would be nice.
"IN- Will Evan Bayh be seriously opposed? Governor Mitch Daniels is said to have Senate ambitions."
Daniels is more a DC person, anyhow. Let him try.
"IA- Charles Grassley can have another Senate term if he wants it. But does he want it? He’s getting up there in years. All bets are off until he decides."
I'd prefer he stayed put. IA's GOP farm team has shrunk dramatically, although if Steve King was guaranteed to win...
"KS- Sam Brownback will not seek another term. Kathleen Selebius is a possible candidate, and Republicans are hoping Congressman Jerry Moran runs. A key race."
Gilligan-Sebelius would be the strongest candidate to run in awhile, but '10 could be a bad year for Dems. Moran has hemmed and hawed over the years on what to do. They tried to get him to run for Governor in '02 when he could've stopped Katie and he didn't. He may decide to run for Governor in '10 and not the Senate, in which case that may leave Rep-elect Lynn Jenkins or Todd Tiahrt to have a go.
"KY- Republicans are hoping that the erratic Jim Bunning retires. Congressman Ben Chandler is a possible candidate for Democrats."
One seat I'm quite worried about it. If Bunning runs again, he'll likely lose. But I'm not sure which Republican could run the best race. I'd have liked Anne Northup, but her losing a 3rd race in a row isn't good for her. Perhaps one of the two statewide Republicans, Richie Farmer or Trey Greyson.
"LA- David Vitter may step down. A number of Republicans are looking at the race. Democrats are eyeing the race closely, but have no obvious choice yet."
Diapers to doughnuts, it may have to be Boustany as a replacement.
"ME- Olympia Snowe is safe."
Possibly, though I'd expect her House successor, current Gov. Baldacci to take a run.
"MD- Barbara Mikulski may retire. A number of Democrats will run if she does. Republicans are hoping that ex-Governor Robert Erlich makes a bid, but he may seek to regain his old office."
Ehrlich may be better off running for his old job. Sickening to realize in January we'll have only the ancient Roscoe Bartlett as the lone Republican from MD out of 10 federal members (although Andy Harris may come back in '10 and should). Mike Steele could try again, but that may be a masochistic exercise.
"MO- Will Chris Bond retire? He may. Possible Republicans include ex-state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and ex-Senator Jim Talent. Democrats have many potential candidates, but none stand out yet."
Bond may retire, indeed. I'm a little iffy on Talent, especially that he's 2 to 1 on losses for statewide office. Steelman may be better. I think the Dems may run one of the Carnahan progeny, either Russ the Congressman or sister Robin, the Sec of State. Aside from Bond, only Peter Kinder, the Lt Governor, will remain the only statewide Republican after January.
"NV- Harry Reid was almost as big a winner as Barack Obama. He engineered the defeat of the most mentioned potential rival (Jon Porter) and delivered a big margin for Obama. But his approval are not good."
He may have gotten Porter (whom I presume may try again against the moonbat Dina Titus), but there's still Dean Heller, and Heller has won statewide... three times.
"NH- Will Democrats try to unseat Judd Gregg? Only John Lynch could do it."
Gregg will now be the lone NH Republican and he has got a massive target painted on his back. He might even retire. Lynch would take the seat absent an ugly scene, although Hodes might try for it. I still can't believe we couldn't knock off Che Porter...
"NY- Chuck Schumer was damaged by his role in the Wall Street failures, but fatally so. The only Republican who would have a chance would be Rudy Giuliani. But if Giuliani runs for anything, it will be Govenror."
Have Pataki run (har, har). Schumer could rape a nun on live tv and they'd reelect him. He's despicable. Rudy won't run against him, he's probably going to take on the blind moonbat in Albany.
"NC- Defeating Elizebeth Dole has emboldened NC Democrats. Richard Burr will be seriously challenged, though his opponent is unclear."
Burr is in the cursed seat, as no member has been reelected to it since 1968. Of course, Dole just cursed the Helms seat with her shocking incompetence. Burr has also not particularly distinguished himself, either. The Dems put up a second tier nobody and won, so Burr may have a real problem facing a Congressmember (or Mike Easley).
"ND- Byron Dorgan is expected to retire. A race between John Hoeven and Earl Pomeroy is what’s currently extected."
Dorgan retire ? I'd be amazed. Pomeroy has never racked up large margins. Hoeven should be able to beat him, presuming he decides to run. He may not.
"OH- Will George Voinovich run? He irks conservatives, but Republicans in Ohio are in bad shape right now."
I think he needs to go and be replaced by younger blood. It'd be nice if we could get Ken Blackwell (who also has a seat in Cincy he could run for with Steve Chabot's unfortunate loss, which he previously ran for and narrowly lost in 1990). The Dems may run one of their newbie statewide officers.
"OK-Tom Coburn is secure."
I actually expect Coburn may retire after a single term. He showed poor judgment on the bailout and I think he truly hates being in DC. In which case, I'd like to see Mary Fallin, who has won statewide on her own take a shot. The Boren kid may take a run for the rodents, although Brad Henry may, too.
"OR- Ron Wyden is secure."
Embarrassing. Gordon Smith, now free from DC, ought to go back to Salem where he served as State Senate President in the '90s and run for Governor. A new GOP Governor hasn't been elected there since 1978 and Kulongoski is term-limited in 2010.
"PA- Arlen Sepcter says he’ll run yet again, but most are not convinced that he’ll stick it out. A key race, but who will run is unclear in both parties."
Presuming he doesn't die between now and then. I think Rendell may run for it, but the GOP has a lack of strong candidates (unless Tom Ridge or Mark Schweiker want to make a comeback). I expect Attorney-General Tom Corbett, our only other statewide Republican, who just got reelected on Tuesday, to run for Governor (of course, part of me would like to see Lou Barletta run for it, who is better suited to an executive position).
"SC- Jim DeMint is probably secure."
Yup. The big question is who will run for Governor in 2010. Some expect Ambassador to Canada David Wilkins to make a go. Lt Gov. Andre Bauer would be toxic for the GOP as his auto antics almost cost us his seat.
"SD- John Thune is probably secure."
Not if Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin challenges him. She's more popular than he is, and he, like Dick Burr in NC, hasn't particularly distinguished himself.
"UT- Robert Bennett may retire. Until he decides, all bets are off."
Bennett's dad, who was also a Senator, lived well into his 90s, so he may stick around. If he does step down, I'd like to see Rep-elect Jason Chaffetz have a go. The Dems don't have much of a shot, but Rep. Jim Matheson may try. The Dems last won a Senate seat in UT in 1970.
"VT- Pat Leahy is secure (ugh)."
Of course, Gov. Jim Douglas might make him sweat a little if he boldly tried to take him on.
"WA- Patty Murray is a lightweight and even her fellow liberals privately admit it. She could face a serious opponent, but it’s not a given. Would Dino Rossi consider it or is he burned out on campaigning?"
Rossi got screwed twice. If he wants to try, he's about our highest-profile Republican in the state. The other statewide Republicans have ranged from unimpressive to outright backstabbing RINO weasels.
"WI- Herb Kohl is secure if he runs again."
He's not up until 2012. It's Russ Feingold that is up in 2010. I thought Paul Ryan could challenge him. Gotta take out Diamond Jim Doyle, too.
Let me add, too, that if the incoming regime plucks some Senators, there may be some more special elections in 2010. There may also be some deaths, too. The Hawaiian twins are both 84 (85 early next year). Robert Byrd is nearly 91. The corpse in NJ is 85 in January. Tim Johnson in SD with his precarious health is another. That doesn't even take into consideration 20 of ours sitting in states with (whom after January will have) Dem Governors (AZ, who although instructed by law to appoint an "R" could appoint a Democrat phony; IA; KS; KY; ME; MO; NH; NC; OH; OK; PA; TN & WY -- although the latter worked out fine for us).
Post #56. Please, I hope the IL GOP is not stupid enough to allow Oberdouche anywhere near an office again. He lost a heavily Republican House district twice to a nobody, last Tuesday in a landslide.
I might remind you that even if the False Messiah becomes as unpopular as Bubba in ‘94, we STILL knocked off only 2 sitting Dem incumbents in the Senate that year. We usually only make our gains through their retirements while they pluck ours off at will (absent retirements in ‘94, we may have failed to capture that body).
Possibly so, but not necessarily a guarantee. They all might've pulled off close reelections, all of which would've only moved us up to the mid to high 40s. I still can't believe OH Democrats were stupid enough to run Joel Hyatt, a little snot-nose with no election experience. Although perhaps not the best choice, ex-Gov. Dick Celeste might've made it a closer race. Ditto Bruce Babbitt in AZ to replace DeConcini, although with his ties to the Clinton cabinet, that probably would've doomed him.
"But Mitchell's seat wouldn't have budged with him running again."
Quite so, ditto that of OK's David Boren, who stepped down before his term expired.
"If Vitter steps down, our SecState Jay Dardenne could run for the seat. He probably should have run against Landrieu instead of Kennedy."
I'm more than a little pissed at the undermining of Kennedy. Here the party took the time to get this guy to switch parties and cultivate him to run, and then they yank the rug out from under him and all these RINO piggies feeding at the trough go running to Sen. Brownroots to cover her. Her election in the first place was a fraud and it should've been at the top of the party agenda to bounce her ass back to New Orleans. I swear it's almost as if this party REALLY doesn't even want to win office. I really think the biggest enemy of the Republican party isn't the media, isn't the Democrats, it's the Republican party itself.
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