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What’s sad about the squandered legacy under Huckster is that the GOP had a premier opportunity with term limits implemented in the ‘90s to make substantial gains in the legislature, and most importantly in the rural areas. As it is, the Republicans are almost exclusively confined to the Little Rock area (4 counties in a line from east to west, from Garland’s Hot Springs through to Lonoke) and the NW corner and Ozarks along the MO and OK border. It’s almost impossible to find any elected Republicans outside those two areas (there were a few that made some breakthroughs, but the numbers shrunk down to just 25% of the House after hitting the 30% mark in 2000).

Upon just reviewing the AR Sec of State website, I see we gained 3 seats in the House (29th, 42nd, 49th) to go up to 28, which you’d be interested to know that’s the first time we had a positive gain in the legislature since 2000, but still below the highest number we held from 2001-05. The 3 gains we made, however, were still basically in those same areas I cited above. The 29th & 42nd in the L.R. suburbs, but the 49th in White County is now the easternmost county to have a GOP Rep. There still are zero in the southern 3rd of the state and in the East/NE. I believe we had one member from the Texarkana area in the late ‘90s/early ‘00s and another up in Poinsett or Craighead, IIRC, at the same time. We even had a Black Republican member from Fort Smith, Dr. Kevin Penix, but he retired just after a single term in 2004.

More appalling, though, is the fact the GOP didn’t even bother to field candidates in a jaw-dropping 61 seats ! Even the Green Party managed to elect a member in the 39th district (North Little Rock) which I think is a Black district, and the winner is White.

I see in the Senate we gained zilch, still stuck at the same 8 seats (out of 35) we’ve had since 2000, the last year we made any gains, and means we have even less a percentage of Republican Senators than House members. And we didn’t bother contesting 12 of 18 seats.

As you’re well aware, we didn’t even contest Pryor’s Senate seat, which we held 6 years ago, and didn’t bother with the other 3 House seats (for which we could win ALL of them, since they all voted GOP for President, or at least did in 2004). The Green Party contested more Congressional races than we did (3 out of 4), including the Senate (and no doubt, some disgruntled Republicans probably cast protest votes for the Green candidates).

In any event, I wish you good luck in getting involved with local GOP politics. The whole state party needs a gigantic kick in the butt. How Missouri to the north and Louisiana in the South could now have Republican majorities in one or both bodies of their legislatures while Arkansas gets left behind to numbers disproportionate to the actual number of voting Republicans is shameful. Over here in TN, we just finally took the House after 4 decades of Democrat gerrymandering (of course, deposing our tyrannical Dem Speaker is the next challenge in January).

This is my take.

AL- Richard Shelby can have another term if he wants it, but he may retire.

AK- Lisa Murkowski won’t be seriuosly opposed. If Democrats couldn’t pick up seats this year, they won’t defeat her.

AZ- John McCain will retire. Possible ‘Rats include Governor Janet Napolitano and Congressman Harry Mitchell. There are many possible Republicans.

AR- Blanche Lambert is favored, but secure. She underpolled against a second-tier opponent in 2004.

CA- A race between Boxer and The Terminator would be great political theater, to say the least. Of course, Arnold Schwarzenegger has serious credibility problems with conservatives. But even he’s preferable to the ultra-partisan, ultra-politically correct incumbent.

CO- Ken Salazar is favored, but not secure. Too soon to speculate on the field.

CT- Chris Dodd has been damaged with publicity about the Countrywide scandal. How damaged is unclear at this time. RINO Governor Jodi Rell would have a good chance against anyone the ‘Rats run, if she can be persuaded to run.

FL- What a mess. Mel Martinez barely won in 2004 and has low approval ratings. His Open Borders immigration policy doesn’t help. He may retire rather than face a tough race and perhaps a tough primary.

GA- Johnny Isakson thought about running for Governor, but passed. He’s probably safe.

HA- Dan Inouye is likely to retire, when he’ll be 86. Governor Linda Lingle will run if he retires, and be a strong candidate. Possible ‘Rats include Congressman Neil Aboercrombie and retired General Eric Shinseki.

ID- Mike Crapo is safe.

IL- Who will replace Barack Obama in the Senate? Will Republicans seriuosly contest the race? Too soon to say.

IN- Will Evan Bayh be seriously opposed? Governor Mitch Daniels is said to have Senate ambitions.

IA- Charles Grassley can have another Senate term if he wants it. But does he want it? He’s getting up there in years. All bets are off until he decides.

KS- Sam Brownback will not seek another term. Kathleen Selebius is a possible candidate, and Republicans are hoping Congressman Jerry Moran runs. A key race.

KY- Republicans are hoping that the erratic Jim Bunning retires. Congressman Ben Chandler is a possible candidate for Democrats.

LA- David Vitter may step down. A number of Republicans are looking at the race. Democrats are eyeing the race closely, but have no obvious choice yet.

ME- Olympia Snowe is safe.

MD- Barbara Mikulski may retire. A number of Democrats will run if she does. Republicans are hoping that ex-Governor Robert Erlich makes a bid, but he may seek to regain his old office.

MO- Will Chris Bond retire? He may. Possible Republicans include ex-state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and ex-Senator Jim Talent. Democrats have many potential candidates, but none stand out yet.

NV- Harry Reid was almost as big a winner as Barack Obama. He engineered the defeat of the most mentioned potential rival (Jon Porter) and delivered a big margin for Obama. But his approval are not good.

NH- Will Democrats try to unseat Judd Gregg? Only John Lynch could do it.

NY- Chuck Schumer was damaged by his role in the Wall Street failures, but fatally so. The only Republican who would have a chance would be Rudy Giuliani. But if Giuliani runs for anything, it will be Govenror.

NC- Defeating Elizebeth Dole has emboldened NC Democrats. Richard Burr will be seriously challenged, though his opponent is unclear.

ND- Byron Dorgan is expected to retire. A race between John Hoeven and Earl Pomeroy is what’s currently extected.

OH- Will George Voinovich run? He irks conservatives, but Republicans in Ohio are in bad shape right now.

OK-Tom Coburn is secure.

OR- Ron Wyden is secure.

PA- Arlen Sepcter says he’ll run yet again, but most are not convinced that he’ll stick it out. A key race, but who will run is unclear in both parties.

SC- Jim DeMint is probably secure.

SD- John Thune is probably secure.

UT- Robert Bennett may retire. Until he decides, all bets are off.

VT- Pat Leahy is secure (ugh).

WA- Patty Murray is a lightweight and even her fellow liberals privately admit it. She could face a serious opponent, but it’s not a given. Would Dino Rossi consider it or is he burned out on campaigning?

WI- Herb Kohl is secure if he runs again.