This is my take.
AL- Richard Shelby can have another term if he wants it, but he may retire.
AK- Lisa Murkowski won’t be seriuosly opposed. If Democrats couldn’t pick up seats this year, they won’t defeat her.
AZ- John McCain will retire. Possible ‘Rats include Governor Janet Napolitano and Congressman Harry Mitchell. There are many possible Republicans.
AR- Blanche Lambert is favored, but secure. She underpolled against a second-tier opponent in 2004.
CA- A race between Boxer and The Terminator would be great political theater, to say the least. Of course, Arnold Schwarzenegger has serious credibility problems with conservatives. But even he’s preferable to the ultra-partisan, ultra-politically correct incumbent.
CO- Ken Salazar is favored, but not secure. Too soon to speculate on the field.
CT- Chris Dodd has been damaged with publicity about the Countrywide scandal. How damaged is unclear at this time. RINO Governor Jodi Rell would have a good chance against anyone the ‘Rats run, if she can be persuaded to run.
FL- What a mess. Mel Martinez barely won in 2004 and has low approval ratings. His Open Borders immigration policy doesn’t help. He may retire rather than face a tough race and perhaps a tough primary.
GA- Johnny Isakson thought about running for Governor, but passed. He’s probably safe.
HA- Dan Inouye is likely to retire, when he’ll be 86. Governor Linda Lingle will run if he retires, and be a strong candidate. Possible ‘Rats include Congressman Neil Aboercrombie and retired General Eric Shinseki.
ID- Mike Crapo is safe.
IL- Who will replace Barack Obama in the Senate? Will Republicans seriuosly contest the race? Too soon to say.
IN- Will Evan Bayh be seriously opposed? Governor Mitch Daniels is said to have Senate ambitions.
IA- Charles Grassley can have another Senate term if he wants it. But does he want it? He’s getting up there in years. All bets are off until he decides.
KS- Sam Brownback will not seek another term. Kathleen Selebius is a possible candidate, and Republicans are hoping Congressman Jerry Moran runs. A key race.
KY- Republicans are hoping that the erratic Jim Bunning retires. Congressman Ben Chandler is a possible candidate for Democrats.
LA- David Vitter may step down. A number of Republicans are looking at the race. Democrats are eyeing the race closely, but have no obvious choice yet.
ME- Olympia Snowe is safe.
MD- Barbara Mikulski may retire. A number of Democrats will run if she does. Republicans are hoping that ex-Governor Robert Erlich makes a bid, but he may seek to regain his old office.
MO- Will Chris Bond retire? He may. Possible Republicans include ex-state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and ex-Senator Jim Talent. Democrats have many potential candidates, but none stand out yet.
NV- Harry Reid was almost as big a winner as Barack Obama. He engineered the defeat of the most mentioned potential rival (Jon Porter) and delivered a big margin for Obama. But his approval are not good.
NH- Will Democrats try to unseat Judd Gregg? Only John Lynch could do it.
NY- Chuck Schumer was damaged by his role in the Wall Street failures, but fatally so. The only Republican who would have a chance would be Rudy Giuliani. But if Giuliani runs for anything, it will be Govenror.
NC- Defeating Elizebeth Dole has emboldened NC Democrats. Richard Burr will be seriously challenged, though his opponent is unclear.
ND- Byron Dorgan is expected to retire. A race between John Hoeven and Earl Pomeroy is what’s currently extected.
OH- Will George Voinovich run? He irks conservatives, but Republicans in Ohio are in bad shape right now.
OK-Tom Coburn is secure.
OR- Ron Wyden is secure.
PA- Arlen Sepcter says he’ll run yet again, but most are not convinced that he’ll stick it out. A key race, but who will run is unclear in both parties.
SC- Jim DeMint is probably secure.
SD- John Thune is probably secure.
UT- Robert Bennett may retire. Until he decides, all bets are off.
VT- Pat Leahy is secure (ugh).
WA- Patty Murray is a lightweight and even her fellow liberals privately admit it. She could face a serious opponent, but it’s not a given. Would Dino Rossi consider it or is he burned out on campaigning?
WI- Herb Kohl is secure if he runs again.
“IL- Who will replace [Zero] in the Senate? Will Republicans seriuosly contest the race? Too soon to say.”
Mark Kirk and, yes, Mike Ditka (again) is being floated. This will be a major pickup opportunity for us when Zero’s star fades.
The One wants Blago to appoint another black in his Senate. It will be Jesse Jr. and Oberweis may run for the seat.
The Kos Kids are touting Heath Schuler to challenge Burr.
Janet Nappy may not run for the Senate. Nappy might be Attorney General or be appointed to the Federal bench.
With the RATS in absolute power, he is going to have a more visibile face. If the economy keeps tanking, Reid may be in trouble even from a 2nd tier challenger. Many of our guys lost to 2nd or even 3rd tier challengers.
Chissy butt “Tingle” Matthews has said he is interested in Specter’s PA seat. That said, as mush as Spec is a RINO, since he is the best opportunity on keeping the seat I support his run for reelection.
"AL- Richard Shelby can have another term if he wants it, but he may retire."
The talk is Shelby retires to run for the open Governorship in 2010. Gov. Riley might then decide to make a return to DC.
"AK- Lisa Murkowski won’t be seriuosly opposed. If Democrats couldn’t pick up seats this year, they won’t defeat her."
She has a bigger problem with a primary challenge. Alaska is like a reverse Dem state, they will elect a convicted felon Republican before ANY Democrat...
"AZ- John McCain will retire. Possible ‘Rats include Governor Janet Napolitano and Congressman Harry Mitchell. There are many possible Republicans."
Who knows ? Maybe McCain may stick around, but he showed vulnerability with his lackluster performance there and the state managed to go majority Democrat (5-3) with its House delegation for the first time in 44 years. Butch Nappy might have her eye on DC, indeed, and I'm not sure whom is the best candidate to run.
"AR- Blanche Lambert is favored, but secure. She underpolled against a second-tier opponent in 2004."
We were discussing Huckster as a challenger, but it would not come without a substantial downside, especially in that he choked the state GOP worse than a teenage boy with his unit. Only Boozman is a high-enough profile candidate, but he doesn't stand out much. We have no farm team in AR, so perhaps looking to someone in the private sector to run ?
"CA- A race between Boxer and The Terminator would be great political theater, to say the least. Of course, Arnold Schwarzenegger has serious credibility problems with conservatives. But even he’s preferable to the ultra-partisan, ultra-politically correct incumbent."
Ah-nold is one of the worst RINO Governors in the country who not only has zero credibility, but has moved on to about the temperature of outer space. CA remains a serious problem for any Republican running statewide. The place has lurched hard-left since the '90s.
"CO- Ken Salazar is favored, but not secure. Too soon to speculate on the field."
The guy who just lost on Tuesday deserves a shot, but he needs to start raising money -- now.
"CT- Chris Dodd has been damaged with publicity about the Countrywide scandal. How damaged is unclear at this time. RINO Governor Jodi Rell would have a good chance against anyone the ‘Rats run, if she can be persuaded to run."
Rell is an idiot and completely useless. On her watch, the CT GOP has flatlined to Massachusetts proportions. I seriously doubt she could dislodge her bowels, let alone Dodd. The Dems only keep her around because she serves their purposes.
"FL- What a mess. Mel Martinez barely won in 2004 and has low approval ratings. His Open Borders immigration policy doesn’t help. He may retire rather than face a tough race and perhaps a tough primary."
If he runs again as the general election nominee, he WILL lose. Though distasteful to some, I say run Jeb Bush.
"GA- Johnny Isakson thought about running for Governor, but passed. He’s probably safe."
Chambliss was supposed to be safe, too... He'd better consider looking out on his right flank.
"HA- Dan Inouye is likely to retire, when he’ll be 86. Governor Linda Lingle will run if he retires, and be a strong candidate. Possible ‘Rats include Congressman Neil Aboercrombie and retired General Eric Shinseki."
Inouye and Akaka will be carried out feet-first. Lingle may give it a shot, but it's very hard for GOP candidates there running for federal offices.
"ID- Mike Crapo is safe"
So it seems. Depends upon whether he likes serving in the minority.
"IL- Who will replace Barack Obama in the Senate? Will Republicans seriuosly contest the race? Too soon to say."
Pressure is on Blago to appoint Je$$e Jack$on, Jr. Mike Ditka could try to make up for his mistake in not running in '04 and rescue the GOP. It would be nice.
"IN- Will Evan Bayh be seriously opposed? Governor Mitch Daniels is said to have Senate ambitions."
Daniels is more a DC person, anyhow. Let him try.
"IA- Charles Grassley can have another Senate term if he wants it. But does he want it? He’s getting up there in years. All bets are off until he decides."
I'd prefer he stayed put. IA's GOP farm team has shrunk dramatically, although if Steve King was guaranteed to win...
"KS- Sam Brownback will not seek another term. Kathleen Selebius is a possible candidate, and Republicans are hoping Congressman Jerry Moran runs. A key race."
Gilligan-Sebelius would be the strongest candidate to run in awhile, but '10 could be a bad year for Dems. Moran has hemmed and hawed over the years on what to do. They tried to get him to run for Governor in '02 when he could've stopped Katie and he didn't. He may decide to run for Governor in '10 and not the Senate, in which case that may leave Rep-elect Lynn Jenkins or Todd Tiahrt to have a go.
"KY- Republicans are hoping that the erratic Jim Bunning retires. Congressman Ben Chandler is a possible candidate for Democrats."
One seat I'm quite worried about it. If Bunning runs again, he'll likely lose. But I'm not sure which Republican could run the best race. I'd have liked Anne Northup, but her losing a 3rd race in a row isn't good for her. Perhaps one of the two statewide Republicans, Richie Farmer or Trey Greyson.
"LA- David Vitter may step down. A number of Republicans are looking at the race. Democrats are eyeing the race closely, but have no obvious choice yet."
Diapers to doughnuts, it may have to be Boustany as a replacement.
"ME- Olympia Snowe is safe."
Possibly, though I'd expect her House successor, current Gov. Baldacci to take a run.
"MD- Barbara Mikulski may retire. A number of Democrats will run if she does. Republicans are hoping that ex-Governor Robert Erlich makes a bid, but he may seek to regain his old office."
Ehrlich may be better off running for his old job. Sickening to realize in January we'll have only the ancient Roscoe Bartlett as the lone Republican from MD out of 10 federal members (although Andy Harris may come back in '10 and should). Mike Steele could try again, but that may be a masochistic exercise.
"MO- Will Chris Bond retire? He may. Possible Republicans include ex-state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and ex-Senator Jim Talent. Democrats have many potential candidates, but none stand out yet."
Bond may retire, indeed. I'm a little iffy on Talent, especially that he's 2 to 1 on losses for statewide office. Steelman may be better. I think the Dems may run one of the Carnahan progeny, either Russ the Congressman or sister Robin, the Sec of State. Aside from Bond, only Peter Kinder, the Lt Governor, will remain the only statewide Republican after January.
"NV- Harry Reid was almost as big a winner as Barack Obama. He engineered the defeat of the most mentioned potential rival (Jon Porter) and delivered a big margin for Obama. But his approval are not good."
He may have gotten Porter (whom I presume may try again against the moonbat Dina Titus), but there's still Dean Heller, and Heller has won statewide... three times.
"NH- Will Democrats try to unseat Judd Gregg? Only John Lynch could do it."
Gregg will now be the lone NH Republican and he has got a massive target painted on his back. He might even retire. Lynch would take the seat absent an ugly scene, although Hodes might try for it. I still can't believe we couldn't knock off Che Porter...
"NY- Chuck Schumer was damaged by his role in the Wall Street failures, but fatally so. The only Republican who would have a chance would be Rudy Giuliani. But if Giuliani runs for anything, it will be Govenror."
Have Pataki run (har, har). Schumer could rape a nun on live tv and they'd reelect him. He's despicable. Rudy won't run against him, he's probably going to take on the blind moonbat in Albany.
"NC- Defeating Elizebeth Dole has emboldened NC Democrats. Richard Burr will be seriously challenged, though his opponent is unclear."
Burr is in the cursed seat, as no member has been reelected to it since 1968. Of course, Dole just cursed the Helms seat with her shocking incompetence. Burr has also not particularly distinguished himself, either. The Dems put up a second tier nobody and won, so Burr may have a real problem facing a Congressmember (or Mike Easley).
"ND- Byron Dorgan is expected to retire. A race between John Hoeven and Earl Pomeroy is what’s currently extected."
Dorgan retire ? I'd be amazed. Pomeroy has never racked up large margins. Hoeven should be able to beat him, presuming he decides to run. He may not.
"OH- Will George Voinovich run? He irks conservatives, but Republicans in Ohio are in bad shape right now."
I think he needs to go and be replaced by younger blood. It'd be nice if we could get Ken Blackwell (who also has a seat in Cincy he could run for with Steve Chabot's unfortunate loss, which he previously ran for and narrowly lost in 1990). The Dems may run one of their newbie statewide officers.
"OK-Tom Coburn is secure."
I actually expect Coburn may retire after a single term. He showed poor judgment on the bailout and I think he truly hates being in DC. In which case, I'd like to see Mary Fallin, who has won statewide on her own take a shot. The Boren kid may take a run for the rodents, although Brad Henry may, too.
"OR- Ron Wyden is secure."
Embarrassing. Gordon Smith, now free from DC, ought to go back to Salem where he served as State Senate President in the '90s and run for Governor. A new GOP Governor hasn't been elected there since 1978 and Kulongoski is term-limited in 2010.
"PA- Arlen Sepcter says he’ll run yet again, but most are not convinced that he’ll stick it out. A key race, but who will run is unclear in both parties."
Presuming he doesn't die between now and then. I think Rendell may run for it, but the GOP has a lack of strong candidates (unless Tom Ridge or Mark Schweiker want to make a comeback). I expect Attorney-General Tom Corbett, our only other statewide Republican, who just got reelected on Tuesday, to run for Governor (of course, part of me would like to see Lou Barletta run for it, who is better suited to an executive position).
"SC- Jim DeMint is probably secure."
Yup. The big question is who will run for Governor in 2010. Some expect Ambassador to Canada David Wilkins to make a go. Lt Gov. Andre Bauer would be toxic for the GOP as his auto antics almost cost us his seat.
"SD- John Thune is probably secure."
Not if Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin challenges him. She's more popular than he is, and he, like Dick Burr in NC, hasn't particularly distinguished himself.
"UT- Robert Bennett may retire. Until he decides, all bets are off."
Bennett's dad, who was also a Senator, lived well into his 90s, so he may stick around. If he does step down, I'd like to see Rep-elect Jason Chaffetz have a go. The Dems don't have much of a shot, but Rep. Jim Matheson may try. The Dems last won a Senate seat in UT in 1970.
"VT- Pat Leahy is secure (ugh)."
Of course, Gov. Jim Douglas might make him sweat a little if he boldly tried to take him on.
"WA- Patty Murray is a lightweight and even her fellow liberals privately admit it. She could face a serious opponent, but it’s not a given. Would Dino Rossi consider it or is he burned out on campaigning?"
Rossi got screwed twice. If he wants to try, he's about our highest-profile Republican in the state. The other statewide Republicans have ranged from unimpressive to outright backstabbing RINO weasels.
"WI- Herb Kohl is secure if he runs again."
He's not up until 2012. It's Russ Feingold that is up in 2010. I thought Paul Ryan could challenge him. Gotta take out Diamond Jim Doyle, too.
Let me add, too, that if the incoming regime plucks some Senators, there may be some more special elections in 2010. There may also be some deaths, too. The Hawaiian twins are both 84 (85 early next year). Robert Byrd is nearly 91. The corpse in NJ is 85 in January. Tim Johnson in SD with his precarious health is another. That doesn't even take into consideration 20 of ours sitting in states with (whom after January will have) Dem Governors (AZ, who although instructed by law to appoint an "R" could appoint a Democrat phony; IA; KS; KY; ME; MO; NH; NC; OH; OK; PA; TN & WY -- although the latter worked out fine for us).