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CBS/NYT, Newsweek Bring Up Rear As Least Accurate Polls
NewsBusters ^ | Mark Finkelstein

Posted on 11/06/2008 3:12:32 AM PST by governsleastgovernsbest

Via Drudge. According to a study performed by a Fordham University scholar, the least accurate of the 20 presidential polls were those performed by CBS/New York Times and, in dead last, Newsweek.

In its final poll, CBS/Times forecast an 11-point Obama margin, 52-41. Newsweek was even more "optimistic", foreseeing a 12-point Obama win, 53-41.

(Excerpt) Read more at newsbusters.org ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; bho2008; cbs; newsweek; newyorktimes; polling

1 posted on 11/06/2008 3:12:32 AM PST by governsleastgovernsbest
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To: Behind Liberal Lines; Miss Marple; an amused spectator; netmilsmom; Diogenesis; MEG33; PGalt; ...

Worst of the pollsters ping to Today show list.


2 posted on 11/06/2008 3:13:13 AM PST by governsleastgovernsbest (Keeping track of the MSM so you don't have to!)
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To: governsleastgovernsbest

They’ll do much better when they aren’t confused by having more than one candidate.


3 posted on 11/06/2008 3:17:27 AM PST by Fresh Wind (Hey, Obama! Where's my check?)
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To: Fresh Wind

“We predict President-for-life Obama will sweep to re-election with a resounding 99.99% of the vote. There’s always going to be some malcontent in Utah.”


4 posted on 11/06/2008 3:19:23 AM PST by governsleastgovernsbest (Keeping track of the MSM so you don't have to!)
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
Interesting.

But the bottom line for me is that in the 2006 mid-term elections, the pollsters said the Democrats would make gain. Many on Free Republic said, "No way! What do the pollsters know?? They're always wrong!" But when the dust settled, the Democrats had made gains and had control.

In 2008, the pollsters said Obama would get the White House. Many on Free Republic said, "No way! What do the pollsters know?? They're always wrong! We're closing the gap!" But when the dust settled, Obama had the White House.

In the 2010 mid-term elections, I'll listen to the pollsters and not the experts on FR.

5 posted on 11/06/2008 3:20:45 AM PST by ClearCase_guy
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
One ofthebenefits of this election is that the "main stream media" has now and for all time destroyed their credibility.

No one will ever believe a word they say.

Every time they proclaim their "fairness" they will only hear derisive laughter.

6 posted on 11/06/2008 3:33:55 AM PST by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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To: ClearCase_guy

I agree. While there will always be outlier polls tainted by bias, by and large I tend to believe the polls. As the author of the study stated:

“On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.”


7 posted on 11/06/2008 3:36:17 AM PST by governsleastgovernsbest (Keeping track of the MSM so you don't have to!)
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To: ClearCase_guy

2006 was the first time in a long time that the polls were remotely accurate. So, was that the exception to the rule, or the indication that the pollsters now have this art-form down to a science?


8 posted on 11/06/2008 3:40:06 AM PST by Bernard (If you always tell the truth, you never have to remember exactly what you said.)
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To: governsleastgovernsbest

These two are always the worse.. They had Clinton winning by 17-20 over Dole.


9 posted on 11/06/2008 3:42:11 AM PST by Onerom99
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To: ClearCase_guy
In the 2010 mid-term elections, I'll listen to the pollsters and not the experts on FR.

When you have moderate/rino losers running the pollster tend to be closely in sync. If republicans don't learn from this crushing defeat we will continually get what we deserve.

10 posted on 11/06/2008 3:43:09 AM PST by sirchtruth (Vote Conservative Repuplican!!)
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To: governsleastgovernsbest

Three of the highest profile organizations combine to produce the two worst polls. Hmmm.


11 posted on 11/06/2008 3:45:01 AM PST by Right Wing Assault ("..this administration is planning a 'Right Wing Assault' on values and ideals.." - John Kerry)
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
UNfortunately, that 538 website got it pretty right:

Right now, Barack Obama has 63.7 million popular votes to John McCain's 56.3 million, whereas third party candidates have roughly a collective 1.6 million. That works out to 52.4 percent of the vote for Obama and 46.3 percent for McCain ... conspicuously close to our pre-election estimates of 52.3 percent for Obama and 46.2 percent for McCain.

They did pretty well picking the states, too, it looks like. Only missed on Indiana, if it goes to 0.

12 posted on 11/06/2008 4:04:32 AM PST by Dick Holmes
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
This is probably true, but people, WE HAVEN'T COUNTED THE VOTES yet so we don't know where the final numbers are.

In OH, we have hundreds of thousands of paper ballots to count, not to mention absentees that came in late, but under the deadline.

In Montgomery Co., for example, there were 60,000 remaining votes to be counted (out of about 320,000). So Obama either won this county by 67% or (as is now likely) 2-5%. That will make a big difference in (for Ohio at least) who is the most "accurate."

13 posted on 11/06/2008 4:15:55 AM PST by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
In its final poll...

Part of an study should be the polls from one month out. If an organization moved the split by 10 points over a short period, that's no good.

14 posted on 11/06/2008 4:18:16 AM PST by TankerKC (I'm waiting for my government ration of hope.)
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To: LS

Sorry OH did not work out. Looks like that private polling that gave Repubs hope was no more accurate (or even less so) than the public polls. Or turnout for the Dems was just underestimated. You think OH is gone for good? I sure hope not. All things considered I suppose McCain did pretty well taking 48%, if that’s the way it ends up.


15 posted on 11/06/2008 4:35:14 AM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: ClearCase_guy

Well, some folks may have said that but Ann Coulter had it right. Paraphrasing, she said that they are usually either pretty close or way off. But when they are off they are ALWAYS off in favor of the dim candidate, never in the favor of the Repug. I have made the same observation and that is the filter through which I look at polls.


16 posted on 11/06/2008 5:04:00 AM PST by Lee'sGhost (Johnny Rico picked the wrong girl!)
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To: ClearCase_guy

Some polls were clearly outrageous. Also during the Democrat primaries, so called reputable pollsters blew it big time, claiming Obama leads in primary states where Hillary won handily.

So it was right to be skeptical, because there was clearly something at play which the pollsters weren’t seeing.

To their credit, a few pollsters adjusted their weighting and methodology after the primaries and ending up calling it about right.

Whatever they did managed to result in an accurate outcome. But they could have just as easily been wrong again.


17 posted on 11/06/2008 5:23:24 AM PST by randita (2 Chronicles 7:14)
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To: governsleastgovernsbest
RE: your comment about FREEPERs being wrong about the inflated poll numbers for Obama because many final pollsters were right in the end.

You're assuming that the sole purpose of polls is to reflect accurately what the prevailing opinions are at the time of inquiry. Push polls are designed to change the opinions of voters by fabricating momentum for one side or another. I concede that some of the final polls might very well have been within a percentage point of the actual results on November 4th.

But can the same case for polling accuracy be made for the polls taken after the Republican Convention? When Fannie and Freddie tanked and the Dow Jones tumbled?
in other words, inaccurate polls at those points in time could very well have persuaded the undecideds that conventional wisdom was that most people had concluded that Obama was the better choice. This is the reason why sales pitches often tell the consumer in ads that their product is the most used or bought for that market.

The damage having been done and time having run too short for adjustment, the pollsters could have very easily decided to be more accurate near the finish line for professional reputation.

18 posted on 11/06/2008 5:28:35 AM PST by Rob in Arizona (Rob in Arizona)
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To: ClearCase_guy

Well said!!


19 posted on 11/06/2008 5:30:05 AM PST by paul544 (3D-Joy OH Boy!!!)
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To: governsleastgovernsbest

The main point of this is that it is all just random luck if one of them gets it right.

The most accurate of 2004 was #15 this year. So why should we give any credence to any of the pollsters?


20 posted on 11/06/2008 5:31:15 AM PST by Tatze (I'm in a state of taglinelessness!)
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