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Now we know Gallup's "likely voter" model: 39%D, 31%I, 29%R. Kinda explains a lot.

Posted on 11/03/2008 4:41:29 PM PST by WestFlorida

Unbelievable that they call themselves a reputable polling firm, some even refer to them as "the gold standard." There is NO WAY there will be more I's than R's and NO WAY we are outvoted by 10%. Rediculous.

Link: http://www.gallup.com


TOPICS: Front Page News; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; gallup; mccain; obama
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To: GerardKempf

I was watching. Looked like she admitted defeat to me. Turned the channel. CNN still thinks there is an election tomorrow.


21 posted on 11/03/2008 5:28:17 PM PST by VA40
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To: GerardKempf

I was watching. Looked like she admitted defeat to me. Turned the channel. CNN still thinks there is an election tomorrow.


22 posted on 11/03/2008 5:28:20 PM PST by VA40
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To: VA40

Hiccup. Excuse me.


23 posted on 11/03/2008 5:29:22 PM PST by VA40
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To: Friendofgeorge

This is psychological warfare. They’re telling the Dems we’re beat. Stay home. Republicans vote whether they’re winning big or losing.


24 posted on 11/03/2008 5:31:18 PM PST by DRey
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To: WestFlorida

“Now we know Gallup’s “likely voter” model: 39%D, 31%I, 29%R. Kinda explains a lot”

Well, the 8-10% derived from voter fraud has to come from somewhere. Gallop either knows what is going on (Obama can’t win an honest election IMO) or he will be a laughing stock Wednesday morning.


25 posted on 11/03/2008 5:33:00 PM PST by Peter Horry (Mount Up Everybody and Ride to the Sound of the Guns .. Pat Buchanan)
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To: DRey

Most pollsters don’t think we check the internals of a poll.

Nice try Gallup

Garbage...prove them wrong


26 posted on 11/03/2008 5:33:19 PM PST by CycloneGOP
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To: WestFlorida

FWIW, the EXIT POLLS for 2004 showed turnout for Dems and Republicans even at 38%.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html

VOTE BY PARTY ID TOTAL Democrat Republican
Democrat.....................(38%)..........90%...........9%
Republican...................(38%)..........7%...........93%
Independent.................(25%).........49%..........46%


27 posted on 11/03/2008 5:38:18 PM PST by Smedley (It's a sad day for American capitalism when a man can't fly a midget on a kite over Central Park)
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To: WestFlorida

So let’s get this straight. With that type of party id McCain was at one point behind by only 2 (last week). HA! I wonder what the real number would have looked like with a reasonable party id


28 posted on 11/03/2008 5:39:04 PM PST by wiseprince
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To: GerardKempf

On Oreilly, I am sure it will be posted by another. I just lost respect for Laura


29 posted on 11/03/2008 5:41:20 PM PST by Friendofgeorge (TINA FEY WISHES SHE LOOKED LIKE SARAH PALIN. FEY IS HOMELY, SARAH IS KNOCKOUT DROP DEAD GORGEOUS)
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To: Friendofgeorge
She basically says its all over but take heart because Obama shares some conservative principals???

If she actually said that, she's delusional.

30 posted on 11/03/2008 5:41:33 PM PST by GiveEmDubya (Piper Palin 2044)
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To: WestFlorida

The MSM and the polling companies are in the tank for each other.


31 posted on 11/03/2008 5:43:46 PM PST by Jet Jaguar (Who would the terrorists vote for?)
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To: DemonDeac

Far be it from me to trust any of the MSM, but has anyone thought that all of the Obama bias might be because they know McCain is going to win and need something to talk about between tomorrow and the end of the year? I mean they get payed for their copy (vs news) right? So what would make better copy than days of pouring over how McCain managed such an unprecidented upset?

Just a thought.


32 posted on 11/03/2008 5:46:28 PM PST by reed13 (The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.)
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To: Friendofgeorge

I just got a Laura Ingraham Eblast where she was echoing the same thing she said on Fox.

I not only unsubscribed but emailed her and told her off about writing post mortems of elections before they occur. Considering what is at stake and how it could effect us, for these stupid, idiotic, irresponsible talking head / drive by garbage to demoralize the electorate before election day is treasonist. I am through with her. She is a fifth column traitor.


33 posted on 11/03/2008 5:56:20 PM PST by TMA62 (TMA62)
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To: VA40

She was admitting defeat and O’Reilly is gleefully going along because he’s all po’ed that McCain shunned his show after he’d developed an obvious infatuation with obama.


34 posted on 11/03/2008 5:59:32 PM PST by riri
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To: WestFlorida

Total bias!


35 posted on 11/03/2008 6:02:04 PM PST by Freedom56v2
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To: WestFlorida

hehe...Gallup obviously never listened to Rush!!!...

Operation Chaos GETS THE LAST LAUGH!


36 posted on 11/03/2008 6:03:38 PM PST by Safrguns
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To: Freedom4US

When I was polled, the women’s rights issue question was long and convoluted, and translated to “if you don’t go whole heartedly for abortion, you’re in a burqa, you don’t want that, right?”
So the answer is, “Of course,” which is taken as a “Yeah, Democrats!”


37 posted on 11/03/2008 6:06:46 PM PST by tbw2 (Freeper sci-fi - "Sirat: Through the Fires of Hell" - on amazon.com)
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To: WestFlorida
Anybody notice how Gallup's "Likely Voters (Expanded)" poll is now showing the same result as the "Likely Voters (Traditional) poll". Both have Obama at 53% and McCain at 42%.

Link

Looking at their definitions of the two models;

How on earth can the two different models show the same result? It's like saying, "apples = oranges".

It's as if they got a phone call from the Obama camp saying how dare you have a poll that assumes that Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats.

It's bad enough they morphed their RV poll into a LV (Expanded) poll. Now they morph LV (Expanded) into LV (Tradidtional).

It's as if in order to be politically correct, Gallup now uses the following formula for its three polls....


38 posted on 11/03/2008 6:10:57 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: Friendofgeorge
What's up with Ingraham? Our brave big mouthed Deborah of the Conservative movement.

Its interesting to see how these “heads” fold when times get tough. When McCain wins, I won't be able to listen to her because her credibility will be gone. If you aren't with us in the bad times, we aren't listening to your cr*p in the good times.

39 posted on 11/03/2008 6:16:57 PM PST by April Lexington (I'm voting for McCain in 2008 and Jefferson Davis in 2012)
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To: DRey

Final Poll: Obama 55%, McCain 44%, Other 1%

Gallup: Party Weights 39% Dem, 31% Independent, 29% Republican

Obama pary share: 91% dem, 9% rep, 48% indep

McCain party share: 91% rep, 9% dem, 43% indep

Undecided party share: 9% indep

Obama Support: 91% Democrat(91% x 39% party weight =35.49%), 48% Independent (48% x 31% Independent weight= 14.88%), 9% Republican (9% x 29% party weight=2.61%

35.49% + 14.88% + 2.61% = 52.98%...2.02% short of the 55% Gallup gave Obama. Where did they get the other 2.02%? Must have come from the 9% left of independents.

McCain Support: 91% Republican (91% x 29% party weight =26.39%, 43% Independent (43% x 31% party weight=13.33%, 9% Democrat (9% x 39% party weight=3.51%)

26.39% + 13.33% + 3.51% = 43.23%...0.77% short of the 44% given to McCain in the final poll.

So now let’s allocate the 9% undecideds (according to Gallup) to get to the final result. As we said, Obama needs 2.02% more accounted for while McCain needs 1.16% accounted for. 2.02%/31% (indep party weight)= 6.52% indep.

McCain: 1.16%/31% (indep party weight)= 3.75%

6.52% + 3.75% adds up to 10.27%, more than the 9% we said was unallocated. Gallup must have rounded the final results. We’ll just say Gallup gave Obama 6% to McCain’s 3% of the remaining independents. So they basically gave Obama a 2-1 break of the remaining undecided independents while he only got 48% of the decided vote. It’s much more likely that the undecideds break 2-1 for MCCAIN. That’s outrageous point number 1 we’ll make in this post.

Ok, bear with me now. Final Gallup breakdown is Obama: 91% dem, 9% rep, 54% indep (48+6 undecided allocation)

McCain broke down as follows: 91% rep, 9% dem, 46% indep. (43+3 undecided allocation)

There is a statistical noise of 1% for Barr and Nader, etc. Let’s just assume, for the sake of easy calculations that you can subtract 1% from any final result Obama gets in my model.

Now, let’s reweight to 38% dem, 34% rep, 28% indep just for the sake of argument. You can run your own allocations that you like better. Let’s also give McCain undecideds 2-1, resulting in 51%-49% independent advantage for Obama.

Obama: 91% dem (91% x 38% party weight)= 34.58%, 9% rep (9% x 34% party weight) = 3.06%, 51% ind (51% x 28% party weight) = 14.28%

34.58% + 3.06% +14.28% = 51.92%

McCain: 91% rep (91% x 34% party weight)= 30.94%, 9% dem (9% x 38% party weight) = 3.42%, 49% indep (49% x 28% party weight) = 13.72%

30.94% + 3.42% + 13.72% = 48.08%

So under this model we have Obama 51.92%-48.08%. We have just explained away a 4% increase for McCain and 3% decline for Obama by re-weighting the party IDs and reallocating undecided independents from 2-1 for Obama to 2-1 for McCain (which seems much more likely).

If undecided independents break for McCain 3-1 you get this result: Obama 51.71%-48.29%.

What I would be extremely interested to know is how Gallup allocated ALL undecideds. I was able to extract by calculation the approximate break down of undecided independents, and it shows a 2-1 break for Obama. I find that extremely unlikely. What I cannot calculate from the available information is how ALL undecideds broke. If Gallup gave Obama a 2-1 break of ALL undecideds then that further skews the poll. If that’s the case then you could easily turn that around to a 2-1 break for McCain and then this is at worse a dead heat if not a McCain lead using a more realistic party ID breakdown.

Conclusion and what we already knew anyway, Gallup skewed this poll hugely in Obama’s favor and it has just been debunked as unscientific.


40 posted on 11/03/2008 6:20:38 PM PST by jsdjason
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