IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Twenty-Two. Obama 47.5%, McCain 43.0%, Undecided 9.5%

Investor's Business Daily ^ | 2008-11-03 | IBD/TIPP

[justlurking]

After a McCain rally on Sunday that more than halved his lead, Obama is back to where he was headed into the weekend. Independents made the difference, swinging back to Obama and giving him an 11-point advantage with this key group. Final results available on IBDeditorials.com at midnight Monday.

[ApplegateRanch]

Isn’t that Al Gore’s climate graph?

[TonyInOhio]

Are you trying to motivate everyone, or do you really think McCain has a good shot at winning?

I'm not LS, but we've swapped enough information that I feel confident in saying: LS thinks McCain has a good shot at winning. In fact, I'd go so far to say that LS believes McCain will win. I share his confidence.

[NYC Republican]

Excellent point, re: “likely voters”. Thanks

[backspace]

"They are not “Independents”. Call them what they are: Reeds in the wind. They’ll vote for whoever was the last candidate they thought they heard promise them something."

Amen to that! "Any way the wind blows" These types scare me.

[Raycpa]

He needs 75% of the undecideds.

[spacejunkie]

so you’re saying you won!! :))

[NYC Republican]

Thanks again. NY/CT is awful (politically)... You wouldn’t believe how many Zero stickers there are.

[kevkrom]

Their independents are all over the place. McCain up 47-45 yesterday and down 47-36 today? Sounds like a pair of outliers...

Anyway, using their sample, I get:

• "Conservative" (35/38/27, 33%): McCain 50.2, Obama 49.8
• "Middle" (36/38/26, 25%): McCain 51.3, Obama 48.7
• "Aggressive" (38/38/24, 20%): McCain 52.6, Obama 47.4

Adjusting Independents to Obama 46-41 (split the difference of the last two, round down):

• "Conservative" (35/38/27, 33%): McCain 50.7, Obama 49.3
• "Middle" (36/38/26, 25%): McCain 51.7, Obama 48.3
• "Aggressive" (38/38/24, 20%): McCain 52.9, Obama 47.1

I'm holding with my prediction of McCain/Palin 50, Obama/Biden 47, others 3; McCain/Palin gets 300+ EV

[johncocktoasten]

McCain Campaign’s Pollster Bill McInturff said their internals have been running right at an 8% undecided number. They have asked the voters to rate their intensity to vote on a scale of one to ten. Ten being definitely voting. Out of the undecideds, 61% said it was a 10 that they were going to vote. Over 90% of the undecideds are white middle aged working class voters.

Obama identified these folks as “Bitter Clingers”

I would note that the campaigns internal polls had them tied or within a point in all the battle ground states. So assuming that 5% of the undecided vote, and 90% are McCain votes, McCain picks up a net 4%. Enough to win every red state plus PA and NH.

Tomorrow night is going to be a seminal moment in American Political history. McCain is going to win, when no poll within 30 days of the election gave him a tie or the lead. The drive by media will be decimated. The shockwaves will shake the political left in the country, shattering its foundation and leading to its demise. We are going to get to witness something that Americans 200 years from now will talk about. And it will be FreeRepublic, and other bastions of truth and freedom who will have been responsible for this victory. This will be an election won by us for our nation.

Get out and vote. Make calls to friends and family. Then tune in and watch as our votes and those of our fellow Americans keep the flame of freedom burning for our children and grandchildren.

[avacado]

If the 2008 turnout mirrors the 2004 turnout with 37% Dems, 37% Reps, 26% Inds, then today's IBD/TIPP poll gives the following result:

Obama  45.89%
McCain 45.62%

TURNOUT WINS ELECTIONS, NOT POLLS!!!

[HerrTrigger]

Or you are just seeing Obama overperforming in polling generally state to state, which he has quite the habit of doing.

[big_pale]

10% undecided is good on paper, but a good many of those may be soft Dems who don’t like Obama, but can’t pull the lever for McCain.

It’s up to us to find an undecided person and spread the anti-Obama, pro-McCain news!

This is how elections are won. THIS is what GOTV is all about.

Find an undecided, and spread the word!

[bailmeout]

Good internals for McCain.

He's winning GOP voters by +84 while BHO is only winning Dems by +77.

The indies are a concern, with BHO +11%. 17% are still undecided. Those undecided Indies represent a big opportunity for Mac.

Bottom line, BHO can't win if GOP turnout increases vs. 2004.

[rwfromkansas]

Good find on the early voting poll....pretty comforting numbers there.

[Proudcongal]

GWU/Battleground is the one that doesn’t poll on weekends.

[rwfromkansas]

The other issue is that other polls show Obama leading in early voting......there is no official release of early numbers yet. Everything is just polls, so they could be wrong.

[kesg]

Happily, here is my next to last TIPP report.

Top line: 47.5-43, with 9.5% undecided. Okay, Obama is barely out of the burnt toast range (47% and below), but is still in the dreaded toast range (below 48%).

With the usual re-weighing of the numbers at the 2004 party ID distribution, I get this:

Obama 45.9 (ouch....maybe I spoke too soon)
McCain 45.6
Und 8.5

Obama’s support among Democrats is down to 85-8 (Kerry was 89-11 four years ago), while McCain is at 90-6 with Republicans (compared to 93-6 for Bush.

City slicker adjustment — this is where I redo the numbers to counter TIPP’s tendency to sample too many urban voters and not enough suburban and rural voters, but I revert back to TIPP’s original party ID:

Obama 47.7 (hmm....Halloween effect still a problem)
McCain 42.7 (yep...Halloween effect still a problem).

What do I mean by the Halloween effect? I mean this: parents with children are a GOP friendly demographic. On Halloween, many of them were out trick or treating while TIPP was trying to contact them — something TIPP itself acknowledged over the weekend. You can also see this in McCain’s share of the suburban vote, which mysteriously dropped a few points beginning with Saturday’s polling.

As a doublecheck, here is the vote by the parent/non-parent demographic, reweighted to 2004 exit poll data. This is just a rough estimate, but it tends to reconfirm the Halloween effect:

Obama 46.9 (lower number with more parents in the sample)
McCain 43.4 (higher number with more parents in the sample)
Und 9.7

Again, the one other thing that I want to mention is the Catholic vote, where McCain leads 47-40. This is a very important demographic — Catholics hold the balance of power in states such as NM, OH, PA, NH, and WI.

I think TIPP is releasing its last poll tonight around Midnight. I will probably be up doing my last TIPP report tonight as well.

I still like very much where this is going.

[LS]

But here's the deal. He can't just be "leading" in early polls. Everyone KNEW he would lead---these are the inner cities, overwhelmingly black participation, supposedly the "yout" voters. He has to lead BIG, and I mean BIG. I'd say, 15-20% range.

On Tuesday, the suburbs vote. After that, they count the absentees (note: none of the exit polling of "early voters" can capture absentees, yet in Lee County which I examined last night, absentees outnumbered "early voters" by 3 or 4 to 1). These are disproportionately R areas, and in some cases (Warren County OH, for example) darn near solid R.

I could still see a number that would concern me, but as of right now, I think McCain won the election and won it by perhaps 52-48%.

[justlurking]

I think TIPP is releasing its last poll tonight around Midnight. I will probably be up doing my last TIPP report tonight as well.

TIPP's last poll at midnight is not new data.

They will be using this last set of data, and allocating the undecided votes according to a formula they have not published in the past.

[LS]

Are you still looking at a stupid poll? We have early voting NUMBERS for God's sake. FOX says today Obama leads now, in early voting, by only 48-47.

HUH??? After supposedly every "yout" and African-American in the U.S. has voted, after literally people were herded to the polls, without ANY of the suburbs voting, without ANY of the absentees (also "early votes," but not included in an exit poll), and Obama has a one point lead and STILL can't get above 48?

It's Obama who shouldn't be feelin' too good. This portends a 52% McCain win, and if this holds up, MN, IA, WI, NH as well as PA.