[rwfromkansas]

The other issue is that other polls show Obama leading in early voting......there is no official release of early numbers yet. Everything is just polls, so they could be wrong.

[LS]

But here's the deal. He can't just be "leading" in early polls. Everyone KNEW he would lead---these are the inner cities, overwhelmingly black participation, supposedly the "yout" voters. He has to lead BIG, and I mean BIG. I'd say, 15-20% range.

On Tuesday, the suburbs vote. After that, they count the absentees (note: none of the exit polling of "early voters" can capture absentees, yet in Lee County which I examined last night, absentees outnumbered "early voters" by 3 or 4 to 1). These are disproportionately R areas, and in some cases (Warren County OH, for example) darn near solid R.

I could still see a number that would concern me, but as of right now, I think McCain won the election and won it by perhaps 52-48%.