IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Twenty-Two. Obama 47.5%, McCain 43.0%, Undecided 9.5%

Investor's Business Daily ^ | 2008-11-03 | IBD/TIPP

[justlurking]

After a McCain rally on Sunday that more than halved his lead, Obama is back to where he was headed into the weekend. Independents made the difference, swinging back to Obama and giving him an 11-point advantage with this key group. Final results available on IBDeditorials.com at midnight Monday.

[Ikemeister]

I don’t think most of the undecideds are really undecided. I think they just don’t want to tell the pollster how they are voting.

[Question Liberal Authority]

Obama 47.5%, McCain 43.0%, Undecided 9.5%

So if McCain wins 52-48%, they can say that the undecideds all broke for McCain. If Obama wins 57-43%, they can say the undecideds went for Obama. And even if the margin is 60-40 Obama or 55-45 McCain, they can say their results were inside the margin of error.

I'm starting to sense why this outfit did so well predicting the race in 2004.

[justlurking]

Looks like the 9.5% undecideds is a way for TIPP to CYA

TIPP will allocate the undecideds to Obama and McCain at midnight tonight, if they do as they did in 2004.

[Reagan69]

My crazy fear is that 9.5% undecideds just don’t bother to vote.

PRAY - PRAY - PRAY !!!!

[longtermmemmory]

what were the undecideds in other election years at this stage.

were they this high?

what about the dole year when the polls also had dole down by 10?

DOES ANYONE know the historical answer?

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

pray everyone. pray hard.

[WilliamReading]

Of the 12 polls being taken today for the McCain-Palin vote, this is the most favorable to McCain. 4.5 points is the smallest gap in all the polls.

Could still see McCain lose the popular vote and win on electoral vote.

I think Virginia is an important state . . that could be make or break. Of course, if McCain can win Pennsylvania, he will be President of the United States.

[MooseChic]

In reality, the undecideds are actually decideds for McCain. They just don’t want to tell the pollsters. Plus some democratic union members will switch their votes silently in the comfort of the voting booth. The final tally will be McCain 51% Obama 48% Others 1%

[citizencon]

McCain wins.
The undecided are voters who are not completely sold on Obama.
One is either for the fake messiah or not for the fake messiah.
If one is not for Obama at this point then one isn’t...

[RoseofTexas]

Allocate?? Is that something like a mind reader?

[RoseofTexas]

Allocate?? Is that something like a mind reader?

[LS]

If this number is legit, I don't see any way McCain wins less than 52%, and if he does that, he'd carry MN, IA, NH, and PA, and probably NM.

There's just no way you can drag out that many African Americans and early voter Dems and only come out with a 1-point lead, when the suburbs don't vote until tomorrow.

[RoseofTexas]

Allocate?? Is that something like a mind reader?

[goldstategop]

A popular mandate would give him a comfortable electoral college majority. Otherwise expect to hear the Left scream about another "stolen" election, especially if McCain wins the electoral college but comes in second behind Obama in the popular vote count.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Zero. I should have specified, but in my next sentence, I did say that I hoped the numbers were right. AFIAK, I don’t think we have too many members rooting for Odingbo. :)

[Mitt Romney]

"Well, the RCP Average was off in 2004 and so I would expect it to be off again this year"

Actually you see in that poll that Bush was under 50% and it appears that Kerry got most of the undecided which made the race close. So that 2004 poll was pretty accurate.

Now compare that to this poll which shows Obama at 47.5 (where Bush had 49) and with almost 10% undecided.

Since this election is really a referendum on Obama it is likely that those who are still undecided will break for McCain just as the undecided broke for Kerry in 2004. So if McCain can get 7+ of that 9.5 then he wins.

[BCrago66]

After final results Monday at midnight, I might go to sleep a little happier.

But remember, at this point, it’s the state polls that matters most, not the popular vote. Look at this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

Scroll down and look at states such as Texas and Mississippi - which no one denies McCain will win - and notice that McCain’s numbers are much less than Bush’s in 2000 and 2004. Then look at True Blue states such as New York and Illinois, and you’ll see that Obama’s is racking up much higher numbers than Gore in 2000 or Kerry in 2004. And THEN remember the last Mason-Dixon poll of battleground states, which has McCain ahead or competitive in the states necessary to win the election.

So it’s very possible that McCain will paint enough states pale red to get to 270, while Obama gets enough bright blue states to win a popular vote victory and lose the election.

[Martins kid]

“We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France,
we shall fight on the seas and oceans,
we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be,
we shall fight on the beaches,
we shall fight on the landing grounds,
we shall fight in the fields and in the streets,
we shall fight in the hills;
we shall never surrender....” - Churchill

[justlurking]

I'm starting to sense why this outfit did so well predicting the race in 2004.

TIPP allocated undecideds to Bush and Kerry for their final estimate, based on factors they haven't published.

I expect them to do the same this year. Check back again at midnight tonight.