FoxNews/Battleground Polls (M +1 in NC, FL; tie in MO, OH; M down 4 in CO, VA)

foxynews ^ | 11/3/08 | foxynews

[Ravi]

FOX News/Rasmussen Reports battleground polling this week shows some improvements for John McCain

[unspun]

McCain will get a big hidden bump from:

1. Union voters
2. PUMA’s
3. Undecides and changed minds

[Chicos_Bail_Bonds]

Uhm, there are more Democrats then Republicans. Oversampling them isn’t wrong, in fact it’s what they should do. The question is, by how much should the oversample them.

If it’s by 5 points, then that’s ok. If it’s by 10 points, then its not. But this country isn’t split Republicans and Democrats....there are more Democrats so they should be oversampled.

[Michigan CD]

VA and CO could clinch it for Obama. But the answer is simply that Obama may have a large margin in liberal bastens of California, New York, Illinois, etc. in the battle ground states it is tightening. I’m afraid there will be riots if Obama wins the popular vote but McCain eakes out an electoral college win by running the table on OH, FL, NC, IN, VA, CO, MO

[topher]

Folks, I am toast. I have been fasting (bread and water mostly) for a couple of days.

Please pray for our Admin Moderators, as well as Jim Rob & wife, as well John.

They are really doing a great job. I really think Freepers are kicking the behinds all the country.

But I am definitely proud and biased about Freeper Land.

[La Enchiladita]

A poll on CBS this morning had McCain down by 10 points in VA. I thought we could win that one with all the military.

I don’t think we take CO, but who knows? Sarah will go there today....

[La Enchiladita]

I spend hours in the campaign office every day, talk to people out there and can feel the surge.

[cmt21]

Well, if Mark Warner’s adds are any indication, he’s concerned about being associated with the Democrats. His ads say something along the lines of him “being able to work with both parties to reach common ground.” He’s still playing the role of a moderate.

[La Enchiladita]

We take Nevada.

[Repeal 16-17]

Uhm, there are more Democrats then Republicans. Oversampling them isn’t wrong, in fact it’s what they should do. The question is, by how much should the oversample them.

There are more Democrats, because of:

Young People (18-25) - Only 10-15% of these people usually vote. This is true even with increases of them registering to vote.

Operation Chaos - During the nomination process, after it was clear McCain would be the Republican nominee, Rush Limbaugh encouraged Republicans to reregister as Democrats so they could vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries. This caused the DNC nomination process to be dragged out.

While there are technically more Democrats than Republicans, this difference is really simply an illusion.

[La Enchiladita]

Forget about Fox. Wallace and Rove will skew numbers vs. McCain.

[randita]

But this country isn’t split Republicans and Democrats....there are more Democrats so they should be oversampled.

Nice try, but you are wrong. In 2004, 37% of the final vote was Democrats and 37% was Republicans. Despite the Democrat's edge in registration, Republicans equaled their number in turnout. Why shouldn't that happen again this year?

[La Enchiladita]

And that is why the media are “predicting” we lose VA. They want to call as many states as early as possible for the The Zip.

[Coffee_drinker]

That is huge. As I said before, no doubt in my mind, Virginia will go to the Hero.

'''VOTE FOR ONE:'''

A National Hero
or
A Proven Zero

CD

[pgkdan]

LOL! Unfortunately the Almighty rarely takes my advice. But I really believe that McCain will take care of business tomorrow and we’ll be very happy with the results.

[Norman Bates]

The McCain List.

Here are the final Rasmussen battlegrounds. McCain is slightly ahead or tied in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Missouri. And he is down 4% in Virginia and Colorado.

First, let's assume undecideds break strongly for McCain which, given Obama's overexposure, is a reasonable assumption. According to an analysis I worked out last night, these are the core states and McCain really has to win all of them: Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana. We have an excellent chance of winning them all, and this new Rasmussen data (along with Mason-Dixon) gives credence to this.

Next, McCain needs to win at least one of these two: Virginia and Pennsylvania. Rasmussen has us down 4% in both and Mason-Dixon has us down 3% in VA and 4% in PA. In M-D, Obama is polling under 50% which is a good sign. If McCain is able to grab undecideds and there is an element of the Bradley Effect at play, McCain has an excellent chance with taking at least one of these two states. If McCain takes both he wins the Presidency right there. If he takes one he moves on to the final round.

Depending on whether McCain takes Virginia or Pennsylvania, he then needs to take 1-3 of this last tier of states: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. If McCain takes only Pennsylvania (but not Virginia), any one of those 5 states will put him over the top. If McCain captures only Virginia (but not Pennsylvania), he needs to capture 2-3 of this third tier of states - any combination that will get him 10 or more EVs will capture McCain the Presidency. In other words, Colorado and any other state (IA, NV, NM, NH), or Iowa and any other state, or Nevada and New Mexico combined.

Obviously, grabbing PA would allow McCain the option of trading off one of the core states (OH, FL, MO, NC, IN). But I just don't see McCain winning PA without the core states.

This is my best and most reasonable analysis that I can offer. I think our chances for victory tomorrow are very good - much better than the pundits are giving us! Keep up your spirits and VOTE!!

LET'S WIN THIS!!

[longtermmemmory]

THIS IS THE LINK WHERE THE MSM will get the data for the early and absentee ballot data.

THIS IS THE LINK TO THE FL STATE ELECTIONS PAGE.
https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/fvrscountyballotreports/fvrsefilings.aspx
The reporters are going to spin this.
THIS IS WHERE WE CAN TRUMP THE MSM.

THIS is the page with the actual numbers
https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/fvrscountyballotreports/FVRSAvailableFiles.aspx

unfortunatly I have to go mobile and can not create a new post or crunch numbers.
IF ANYONE WANTS TO DO IT THEN PLEASE FEEL FREE TO HELP RUN THE MSM DATA BLOCKADE.

from the website” *According to the county early voting reports, 2,610,308 Floridians have voted early in Florida as of 5:00 a.m.Monday, November 3, 2008.”

[WestCoastGal]

Thanks

Bookmarking and praying for tomorrow.

[Momaw Nadon]

Norman,

Before the Election, I just want you to know that I am proud to be a fellow FReeper of yours.

May God Bless You and May God Bless The United States of America.

Regards,

Momaw Nadon

[longtermmemmory]

I think all the media wants to skew reports BECAUSE of what happened in 2000 with FL’s two time zones.

IT is all about DEPRESSING the turnout.

[Norman Bates]

Same here, Momaw Nadon! God bless you and thank you.