Posted on 11/03/2008 10:31:26 AM PST by rwilliam
24 Hours Till Votes Are Counted, Missouri Is Still Tied, Could Go Either Way: McCain 48%, Obama 48%, in SurveyUSA's final tracking poll of Missouri, released Election Eve. No change since an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago. Research, underwritten by KMOX radio in St. Louis and KCTV-TV in Kansas City, has McCain up by 25 points in the Ozarks, up by 22 points in the boot-heel, and up by 11 points along the Iowa border. Obama leads by 16 points in greater St. Louis and by 10 points in greater Kansas City. The more younger voters who turn-out, the better Obama's chances. The more older voters who turn-out, the better McCain's chances. McCain must win Missouri to be elected President. Obama would like to win Missouri, but has many paths to 270 electoral votes that do not include Missouri's 11. 800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/02/08 yielded 754 registered voters and 674 likely voters.
Democrat - 39%
Republican - 34%
Independent - 25%
For the record, here are the party affiliation numbers for the 2004 election:
Republican - 36%
Democrat - 35%
Independent - 29%
So, this poll is based on a net change of 6% towards the Democrats compared to 2004!
In any event though, the poll includes a 5% gap in party affiliation towards the Democrats.
The poll results were as follows:
McCain - 48%
Obama - 48%
So, based on that, here is how well each candidate is performing OVER their party affiliation percentage:
Obama - 9% greater than Democratic party affiliation percentage
McCain - 14% greater than Republican party affiliation percentage
That’s right! McCain is outpacing the party affiliation percentage by +5% greater than Obama!
If Republicans turn out to vote in great numbers tomorrow, this election will be very, very close. So, each and everyone of us needs to do our part to make that happen!
-Bob
Interesting stuff, I agree that IF we turn out our side has a chance.
how can we be tied in MO and down 6,7 or 8 nationally. Again does not compute. Somebody is wrong. SUSA state polls are very accurate. I learned that the hard way from 2006 when I thought there was no way Dems were ahead in that many seats. They of course ended up being right on most of those races. But one interesting poll was VA where they had Webb leading Allen by 8 in their last poll. Of course it was basically a tie. Their VA poll done yesterday shows Obama 50 to McCain 46. So if this like 2006, they are underestimating our turnout.
I’ve been doing a lot of thinking that if the pollsters are right, and the worst case scenario of having a huge D-R split is true... then, it’s impossible that Independents aren’t going heavily Dem as well. The enthusiasm should bleed over to the Is as well.
But it’s not.
Say goodbye Hussein, Missouri is gone. And you can take that shrill scarecrow McCaskill too...
We need to be concerned about the fact that the polls of early voters indicate a significant lead often for Obama.
They are only somewhat reliable, but still something to look at.
I am concerned O is not going to PA, as that makes it seem they are not concerned about that state. We may need PA.
At the same time, there are many encouraging signs for us as well, which just makes me so glad tomorrow is the end of this madhouse, even if we lose.
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Turn out and vote!
I remain cautiously optimistic. Even this early voting lead poll is not accurate. Fox just showed that of those that have already voted, Obama is ahead only by one point. Someone is really f***ing up these numbers. Last week it was Obama by 9. No one really knows what’s going on out there and it’s up to us to vote and bring everyone we know to vote also and things will turn out well.
I’ve been playing around on the those interactive electoral maps thos morning, and I don’t see any way McCain pulls this out without PA. I hope I’m wrong, but it doesn’t look good to me if McCain loses PA.
The election is where it needs to be: a referendum on the Obamatron. Independents should fall heavily to McCain the question is how much.
We are looking for better than two-thirds. The ideal is somewhere in the 80% ballpark.
Independents will not go for the Obamination. The media and $600 plus million of illegal campaign dollars would have convinced them by now. Only a fraction of those independents will go for the Obamatron IMHO.
That must have the media and Axelrod worried. They may be confident, but there is room here for the upset. And maybe some room to spare.
What are you seeing as flipping to Obama?
Iowa and New Mexico I think, but what else? Obama must take Colorado. He isn’t going to take Florida, Ohio, Virginia or North Carolina. That leaves Colorado. And if he loses any State more than New Hampshire, he can’t win.
I see Obama as the one with a single path to victory, McCain has many roads.
Get your friends to vote tomorrow as well, for McCain/Palin.
The non socialists.
Well Obama has invested heavily in getting the early vote out. He should in fact have a substantial lead based on that investment.
This may be a strong early indicator that things will not fall his way. Should he go down in flames, this will be cited as the historical factor that was important to his defeat.
The media of course will not cite this. It’s the last thing they want to do.
But we should note it. This should be significant.
Good weather forecast for tomorrow. Drive your older friends to the polls. they will get out more with better weather.
The young Obama supporters will be in touch with nature instead of voting.
Go Mac! Go Puma! Go Bradley!
The more younger voters who turn-out, the better Obama's chances. The more older voters who turn-out, the better McCain's chances. McCain must win Missouri to be elected President. Obama would like to win Missouri, but has many paths to 270 electoral votes that do not include Missouri's 11.Nice spin there. :') 39 per cent of those polled said they were Demwits, only 34 per cent said Pubbie, IOW, just another skewed poll.
With regards to SurveyUSA’s VA poll...
Here are the party affiliation numbers for that poll:
Democrat - 38%
Republican - 36%
Independent - 24%
For the record, here are the party affiliation numbers for the 2004 election:
Republican - 39%
Democrat - 35%
Independent - 26%
So, that poll is also based on a net change of 6% towards the Democrats compared to 2004.
However, the poll only includes a 2% gap in party affiliation towards the Democrats.
The poll results were as follows:
Obama - 50%
McCain - 46%
So, based on that, here is how well each candidate is performing OVER their party affiliation percentage:
Obama - 12% greater than Democratic party affiliation percentage
McCain - 10% greater than Republican party affiliation percentage
In VA, Obama is actually outpacing the party affiliation percentage by +2% greater than McCain. I’m afraid that VA is going to be more tough (as many have expected).
In my opinion, this election comes down to PA and VA. If one of the candidates wins both states, they will be President. If those states are split, we’re watching returns well into the night.
-Bob
Well, I’d pretty much written off the following: CO, IA, and VA. I actually gave NH to McCain. If the above happens, it looks to me like McCain would lose 277-261 in electoral votes. (That’s assuming he doesn’t win PA). Am I missing something? Maybe I’ve written off VA and CO prematurely?
Been making calls today at the State GOP center in Columbia MO.
BTW: Historically as in this century, Republicans have voted in higher number than dems in MO.
I am concerned that Acorn’s fake registers are voting absentee.
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