Well, I’d pretty much written off the following: CO, IA, and VA. I actually gave NH to McCain. If the above happens, it looks to me like McCain would lose 277-261 in electoral votes. (That’s assuming he doesn’t win PA). Am I missing something? Maybe I’ve written off VA and CO prematurely?
McCain is not losing Virginia. Let’s look at the numbers in the last two elections.
2000 Bush 52.5% Gore 44.4%
2004 Bush 53.6% Kerry 45.4%
Bush won Virginia by 8.1% and 8.2%. Obama is not going to do better than either Gore or Kerry against McCain. The demographics have not moved that much and for every extra black vote Obama gets in Richmond, he will lose a racist Blue Dog Democrat vote in the mountains.
Again, Virginia is McCain’s by a good 6%. Same for North Carolina by a good 8%.
Colorado is Obama’s only chance. If he wins Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa, he could squeek out a win if McCain doesn’t win more than New Hampshire.
If McCain flips a Rust Belt State or holds Colorado, McCain wins. McCain has the tactical advantage while the press keeps looking at the strategic field. (Think of Washington’s capture of Cornwallis.)
You may have written NM off too early too. I think McCain wins NM. Support among legal Mexican Americans is very low and the Catholic Church has MAJOR problems with Hussein. It is not just abortion either.
“Maybe I’ve written off VA and CO prematurely?”
YES. Especially VA.
We shall see.