Posted on 11/03/2008 6:23:36 AM PST by Vigilanteman
Pennsylvania is shaping up to be what Florida was in 2000 and Ohio was in 2008. On the morning drive in, I was tuned into our nationally sydicated talk show which broadcasts from Pittsburgh, PA.
He was reading from GOP internal polls. McCain has actually moved into the lead in Pennsylvania (but still within the margin of error) and was only 1% behind in Michigan. Keep working and don't give up!
(Excerpt) Read more at warroom.com ...
GO MAC!
Okay, I remember your post now. :-)
LOL!!! I went back and found the link — couldn’t believe how many pages I had to go through to find my comments with the Cheers!
If turnout in the rest of the state is high enouigh Wayne County is irrelevant. John Engler won MI twice w/o winning Wayne County and Detroit had a much larger population in 1991 whe he ran the first time.
Get off the negative crap...McCain will win tomorrow, all the momentum is moving our way!
This was Quinn reading stuff the GOP had given him? it wasn’t their caller who claims to be a GOP strategist and claimed we’re up in NJ?
Cars
Yesterday evening I pinged you to my election prediction from two weeks ago. Could have added IA and MI to McCain’s win column, but left well enough alone. :-)
That’s okay. We’re all a bit frazzled. I’m just trying to live in the real world. It doesn’t look good. They have worked for a very long time now to dumb down enough people and to make enough people dependent that they could pull this off and it looks like they finally have enough to do it. The sad thing is that I think a really good, vibrant GOP candidate could have easily beaten Obama because he is a very weak candidate, even with the press totally on his side.
Quinn was reading it on his radio show this morning. Sorry, I can’t post a link because it was on the radio.
It has been two weeks — where has the time gone? Have a good feeling about tomorrow. I will go find the ping so I can keep it handy for Wednesday! :)
I need to send Lovie Smith a Thank You card for endoring Obama! He was a huge help with the calls. I am almost through my list and will finish up later this afternoon.
I’m more optimistic than you are.
McCain faced a battlefield as unfriendly as any in recent history.
Yet, he may just pull this thing off!
Again, I sincerely apologize for incorrectly assigning the most dreaded all labels to you. Fog of war? No, middle aged eye sight!
See post #14. This person got more of the details than I did. I’m one of those weird guys who pays more attention to my driving than to the cell phone or the radio. That’s why my insurance is $45 per month.
Obama actually said it would cause big increases. I suspect that really doesn’t worry him since the Dems will be able to pin the blame on big oil and big coal and the idiots that vote for them will swallow that lie whole.
Here’s his quote:
“Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket. Even regardless of what I say about whether coal is good or bad. Because I’m capping greenhouse gases, coal power plants, you know, natural gas, you name it — whatever the plants were, whatever the industry was, uh, they would have to retrofit their operations. That will cost money. They will pass that money on to consumers.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2123500/posts
LET ME TELL YOU HOW POLLS WORK.
Pollsters need to know two things. They want to know what percentage of Registered Democrats, Republicans, and Independents will be voting. And then they want to know who those that are voting will be voting for.
What they do is use the voting history of registered Voters coupled with what they call their enthusiasm rating to determine what percentage of each group will vote.
Once they know the percentage of each group that will vote they just use that rate times the number of voters registered in that group and that gives them the total number of voters in that group.
If for example there are 4.0 million Democrats Registered in Ohio and of those Democrats surveyed it was determined that 70 percent were actually going to vote then the total Democrat vote would be 2.8 million Democrats. If there were 3.5 million Republicans registered and their turn out rate was determined to be 70 percent then the total number of Republicans voting would be 2.45 million Democrats.
if there were 3 million independents and their turn out was 70 percent then we would have 2.1 million independents voting
Thus 2.1 plus 2.45 plus 2.8 equals 7.35 million voters. And 2.8 million Democrats are 38 percent of the voters. And how the Democrats told the pollsters they are voting becomes 38 percent of total vote.
But what if ACORN has registered 400 thousand fake names and none of those 400 thousands fakes are going to actually vote. Then the polls for that state will show Obama with more than 300 thousand votes he will not get.
The polls are wrong because ACORN registered fake voters. They registered 250 thousand of them in Ohio in 2004. None of them voted. Bush had thousands of lawyers to stop them if they tried. But believe it or not, none tried. But it did screw with the polls in 2004.
Kerry refused to concede Ohio in 2004 because he KNEW he should have gotten 250,000 more votes than he did. You may remember his campaign talking to the media about the missing 250 thousand votes in Ohio on election night.
The morning after the election Kerry called all 88 Ohio county boards of elections. They told him his 250 thousand new Democrat voters that had been registered in 2004, had in fact, not voted. It was then that he at long last conceded to Bush.
To throw the polls off all one has to do is pay ACORN to register lots of fake names as Democrat voters.
The idea is to make Obama look like a sure winner. And they believe that independent voters want to vote for the winner. And if that is the case an Obama 12 point lead in the final polls will turn out to be a 3 or 4 point lead in the final vote.
But if they had not screwed with the registered voter numbers then Obama might lose by 1 or 3 points.
There is a problem with the enthusiasm questions being used to determine who will vote. Never in our past have more than a handful of voters voted against a candidate. Always the vast majority of voters have voted for their candidate. This may be the first election in our history where a large number of voters voted against a candidate.
There are lots of voters who are not voting FOR MCCAIN.. THEY are voting McCain to keep OBAMA from being our next president.
Missing that factor may also result in the history and enthusiasm factors the pollsters use to determine turn out being very wrong. The turn out for McCain may be a lot higher than polls predict.
We will soon know. The large variation in polls is likley due to how many of the ACORN registered voters the pollsters are counting.
Bttt
I think one of two things is going to happen tomorrow night: We will get creamed or Obama will get creamed. Not Carter in 1980 creaming, but a creaming nonetheless.
The fact remains that either the pollsters are oversampling for a good reason or they aren’t. I think that the answer is stupidity or skullduggery, and if Obama’s lead really is all oversampling, we will win this thing by a healthy margin.
I think some people have swallowed the revisionist Freeper history of all pollsters being wrong in 2004. A quick glance at the last 2004 polls show that 90% of the pollsters were predicting a Bush win. Today, 0% are predicting a McCain win.
Link to 2004 results:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
My predictions for the Popular Vote:
McCuda: 50.0%
Osama bin Biden: 48.9%
All others: 1.1%
My predictions for the Electoral Vote:
McCuda: 287
Osama bin Biden: 249
EV prediction includes 1 EV from ME, plus PA for McCuda. Osama bin Biden includes CO, NM, MN, NH and IA.
Winning PA makes all good...fingers are crossed!
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