Congratulations, President . . . McCain

self | 11/1/08 | LS

[LS]

These are words that are, actually, somewhat difficult for me to say. John McCain wasn't my favorite candidate in the primaries. For the better part of eight years, he's been on the wrong side of many crucial issues. So I am not making this prediction based on any love of my former Arizona senator. (And forgive me for a slightly windy post, but I want to provide evidence for my congratulatory note.)

A week ago ("Don't Look Now . . . But There Won't Be an Obama Swag-Bag"), I warned that the numbers in the early voting were not sufficient for the Messiah to win---not in Colorado, not in Florida, and at the time, barely enough to carry California. Since then, the numbers in CO have improved for Obama, but in my view not nearly enough. The numbers in Florida remain daunting for him, and California still is stunningly close in terms of Democrat/Republican splits. Based on that, and some other factors, I predicted there would be no Obama victory, and no Obama "Swag-Bag." (Did anyone see the Obama voter who said the Messiah would pay off her mortgage and pay for her gas!?)

The developments in the past week have, if anything, strengthened my conviction that McCain will be inaugurated next January.

High numbers of undecideds remain in the major national polls. According to Dick Morris, "An undecided has already decided not to vote for Obama." While his claim that undecideds---based on a FOX poll---would go for McCain at a clip of 7:1 is, I think, exaggerated, our own Freeper kesg has made a similar argument. It's all about what he calls the 'death line' of 48% for Obama. In only a couple of polls, with drastic manipulations involving oversampling of Democrats, has Obama crossed that line.

Even National Review's anonymous sage "Obi Wan" doesn't seem to fully appreciate the significance of Obama's inability to "close the deal" at that number.

Then there is the completely un-discussed (save for conservative sites) phenomenon of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos." This was real, it registered thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of temporary Democrat voters who are "coming home." Then there are the disaffected Hillary voters---call them PUMAs, if you will---but they do constitute some percentage of the Democrat electorate that the media has been entirely unwilling to acknowledge. Sources tell me that while MI will still land firmly in Obama's column, his lead there has been cut by shocking levels due almost entirely to a scorched earth policy by the PUMAs and the 527s.

Taken together, however, these two groups of "Democrats" (one faux, one real but angry) are tiny compared to the number of white Democrats who think their party has been hijacked by a terrorist. Again, to the drive-by media, such people don't exist. To admit they were real---let alone in numbers---would destroy the entire mythos of the "surge in voter registrations." I'll say more of this in a moment, but for now, I predict---out on a limb here---that Obama will barely come close to Kerry's 2004 Democrat support number.

What does all this mean for the states? With indies breaking at a far higher rate for McCain than Obama, and with large segments of the Democrats voting Republican, you are likely to see both a very high level of Republican support for McCain (probably in the 90s), combined with a significant level of Dem support and late breaking independents. That breaks down to:

*CO will be Republican by about 2 points.

*NV will be a 2 point or better final for McCain.

*MO will be a 4 or 5 point McCain win.

*NM will end up a 2-point McCain loss.

*We will bring in OH at 2 or 3 points---better than Bush did in 04.

*FL will be a double digit McCain lead. GA and NC won't be that close.

*Here's the clincher: the southern part of VA, combined with the west, will give McCain a 1- to 2-point win in the Old Dominion.

*I won't predict NH, IA, or PA. These are very, very close. If I had to guess, I'd say McCain wins NH, loses PA by razor thin margins---but there's that darned "Bradley Effect," and it is real, and it may well bring PA along.

There are other dynamics at work that could, in fact, blow this open a tad for McCain (i.e., bring in IA, PA, NM, and even WI). First, GOPTrust is running $7 million---that's right, $7 million---in devastatingly effective Jeremiah Wright ads this weekend. McCain's support with the oldsters has been somewhat soft due to claims he'll "cut" Social Security, but these ads will scare the bejeezus out of them, and with good reason.

Second, Zogby's overnight not only had it a 1-point McCain lead, but noted that a very good Obama night was dropping off the rolling three-night average. Now, I know, it's the Zogs special sauce. Isn't IDB or Battleground supposed to be better? Well, it actually depends. I think Zogs has been so volatile because his poll has been extremely sensitive to rapid changes. The others have not been as, well, "emotional." Hence, they've stabilized (Battleground at under 4, IBD Tipp at 4 to 5). However, the McCain team said their polling showed that Obama lost ground with the infomercial. The polls didn't pick it up Friday because of the Halloween effect---families (otherwise known as Republican voters) were out with their kids. I think Zogs picked up that post-infomercial shift. Hello, Dickie Morris.

Battleground's "Battleground State" poll, in a little-reported item, noted that all the battleground states were within a point. It then did not define what these states were (hence, I think FL is excluded) but did include NM and IA. New Mexico? I thought Obama had this locked up in 2006!

Finally, the clincher in all this, as it has always been, is the white Democrat vote. And it was "early voting"---contrary to all conventional wisdom---where Obama lost the election. The drive-bys are obsessed with black turnout early (some indicators STILL don't convince me that it will equal Algore's 2000 level turnout, but I could be wrong on this, and it still won't matter).

The critical element of the "early" black vote that all pundits have missed is reflected in the Morris "7:1" comment. In normal elections, cameras go to polling places and show lines. High turnout, low turnout, but the crowds are almost always mixed. This year, "early" voting, combined with the emphasis on Obama's race (and he has run the most racist campaign since Bull Conner), the images have overwhelmingly been of . . . crowds of black voters.

By itself, this would disturb no one, until Obama begins to talk about "spreading the wealth around," and anyone making over (pick a number) $200,000 will see a "patriotic" tax increase and (feel a chill yet?) saying this will be a "transformational" election.

When the camera shots of the lines of black voters is combined with the rhetoric about "he's going to pay my mortgage and pay for my gas," working-class whites (indeed, everyone) starts to get a little antsy. No doubt, more than a few Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Missouri voters suddenly conjured up the Reconstruction images of "Birth of a Nation." "Do people on welfare really think after November 4 they will be moving into my house?" they ask. The House's hearings on nationalizing 401(k)s has percolated into the electorate, including the oldsters.

If I am proven right on November 5, and John McCain is elected president, it will be due to the incredibly stupid, wasteful ad spending by Obama for four months that was forgotten in the last 72 hours; it will be due the early voting that reinforced in the minds of the middle-class and white voters of all economic backgrounds that when Obama says he wants to "spread the wealth around," he really is coming for MY house.

And above all---let's give credit where credit is due---it will be because of a relentless performance by Sarah Palin, a brilliantly choreographed campaign by McCain's managers, and to the gritty, plodding but oh-so-successful turtle from Arizona.

[Perdogg]

group was pinged!

[Senator Goldwater]

the McCain team said their polling showed that Obama lost ground with the infomercial.

---

That’s my sense of it.

The last time Obamarama went grandioise with the fairy dust and styrofoam, his numbers tanked.

Couldn’t time it any better than this. Obama-fatigue is real.

[tj21807]

Make sure it happens! One final push to save the U.S.A.!

The challenge:

Between NOW and election day, convince at least two Obama/Undecided voters to vote for McCain. Further, convince these two people (or two others) to take up the same challenge. (Like a chain letter)

So you have converted people in the past? Good, but we need more!

Many Obama supporters are mindlessly supporting him, with no real reason, this means it is VERY easy to get them to switch over. Even if you fail, other Obama/undecideds may be in the room and hear valid arguments and question their faith in the One.

Do your part...your country depends on it!

[Thickman]

One report showed that Dems had increased early voting by 50,000 in relation to GOP from 2004. If that is the case, then Obama still has 50,000 votes to make-up that went to W. That also does not consider that Barry may be getting early votes in from PUMA’s and redneck dems that won’t vote for him. He has a big hill to climb in the Rocky Mountain State.

[LS]

McCain will win AZ by double digits in a laugher.

[AmericaUnited]

A few thoughts related to the infomercial:

The infomercial was conceived a month ago during the heart of the Bail Out market crash and panic. It seemed to make sense back then, when everyone was in a state of shock. A half hour of “I feel your pain” and “Here's precise steps I will take to ease it” would have been strong. BUT... things changed. A whole month later, the stock market had just rallied up over 900 points, for the second best up day in history, and people were starting to see things stabilize. Gasoline was dipping under $2. Also, McCain and Sarah Palin made great strides, with Joe the Plumber's help, of ripping back the kitchen table economic issues from Obama. Plus the infomercial had too much “It's all about me and my special powers, I'm your savior” tone. That turns off most Americans, especially when some junior who's never done anything, claims all of that.

[My Favorite Headache]

I PRAY that you are right.

[Miss Didi]

Praying hard!

RUSH:...I'm telling you, things are tightening up out there. My gut tells me this can be won. This is about turnout. This is about voting. This is about everybody showing up to vote. I am getting e-mails from people who are literally scared of what an Obama presidency will mean to this country. I have never seen this kind of fear among people. I mean what I got in reaction to President Clinton's candidacy in 1992 was nothing compared to the overall fear that I am seeing from people in the e-mail and when I talk to them personally about the election of Barack Obama. (cont.)

El Rushbo's Gut Starts to Speak!



It's Doable: Just Turn Out and Vote
This will be a turnout election. So turn out and vote!

[TalBlack]

“I predict-—out on a limb here-—that Obama will barely come close to Kerry’s 2004 Democrat support number.

Hell, I’ve ALWAYS thought this and I never felt out on a limb about it.

[nwrep]

Great analysis.

In only a couple of polls, with drastic manipulations involving oversampling of Democrats, has Obama crossed that line.

Gallup shows him at 51-52%, but we do not know what the sampling (D-R) is, or do we?

Also, how do you explain the state polls that show McCain behind in almost all the states he has to win? Thanks.

[fortheDeclaration]

A well thought and written analysis.

I think the support for Obama is very thin among the rank and file Democrats.

Also, many other minorities will see Obama as a threat to their own interests.

Being part of the 'identity politics' of the Democrats, they will see a Black man's ascension to power as a threat to their own race's influence in the Party.

[Miss Didi]

Stand up and fight! Fabulous video...send along to family & friends:

We the People - McCain "Fight with Me"

[bitterohiogunclinger]

Many of us have had issues with McCain. When I read about events that are developing around the world while all of our attention is being focused on the “terror that is Obama”, I am fervently praying for a McCain victory. I'm also praying for Hillary's supporters, with the fervent hope that they will help drive the hard core leftist scum out of the drivers seats in the house and senate.

[fortheDeclaration]

that Obama will barely come close to Kerry’s 2004 Democrat support number.

I agree.

He had to make up the loss of 20% of his base with a huge turnout of the youth vote which hasn't happened.

[Faith]

Amen, Hallelujah!

Come on FReepers! We can do this with God's help. Watch this before you say your prayers. Then pray, pray, pray for America!!!! Click here and be reminded of why you love America.

[biss5577]

I pray you’re right. After watching a bit of Hardball and seeing the poll numbers at the bottom of the screen, it’s really deflating. Each and every poll he is down at least 8 points.

[shield]

And he did that infomercial was on October 29th. Made me wonder why he picked this date...did he think Soros would tank Wall Street? Then the Messiah on TV would reassure Americans...HA HA...

[GLDNGUN]

You were doing so well right up unto the end...”a brilliantly choreographed campaign by McCain’s managers”. If McCain’s people (and McCain himself) had actually done that, McCain would be up by 10 points in the polls. Having said that, McCain did 1 thing that is likely to more than make up for all his gaffes and that of his handlers. Of course, that 1 thing was picking Sarah Palin. When all the dust is settled, the pundits that ridiculed her will have to admit that Palin was the difference and what ultimately won the election for McCain.

[LS]

Well, last poll I saw, McCain was ahead in MO, NC, ahead or tied in OH, FL, NV, and slightly behind in CO. Once again, though, each of these polls has been based on stunningly huge Democrat oversamples. In almost every case, you can match the margin of Obama's lead to the Dem oversample.

Second, when public polls were showing McCain down in OH, our internals had him up, and up almost outside the MOE. I hear similar things about all the other "battleground" states except VA. I've not been able to get intel on VA. I hear we are up in CO, up in NV, up good in MO, up beyond good in FL, up in NC and GA. I hear we are very close in NH, IA, and PA.

[randita]

Great analysis and I tend to agree.

Another overlooked phenomenon this cycle is the huge (I’ve read 75-80%) refusal rate to polls. After two election cycles in which the DBM bandied polls about in a clear attempt to create news and manipulate voters by blatant bias against GOP candidates, people don’t trust them, are sick of them and take their anger out on any and all pollsters. Doesn’t matter if the pollster is affiliated with a DBM outlet or not. A majority of people hate them all and refuse to take part (myself included).

The largest refusal rate is said to be in rural areas where staunch conservatives reside. In order to get the required % of GOP responders, pollsters end up polling urban or suburban Republicans, who are historically more liberal than their rural counterparts. Obama would get a larger % of the vote among these urban/suburban GOP voters. Likely voter status, in this case, is not important.

So not only are pollsters overestimating the Democrat electorate as you’ve described, I believe they are not accurately tabulating the true % of GOP voters who will vote for McCain.

Weekend polls seem notoriously bad for the GOP because urban/suburban voters are not home and rural GOP voters won’t respond.