..my EV map--for now...
Posted on 11/01/2008 4:44:51 PM PDT by LS
These are words that are, actually, somewhat difficult for me to say. John McCain wasn't my favorite candidate in the primaries. For the better part of eight years, he's been on the wrong side of many crucial issues. So I am not making this prediction based on any love of my former Arizona senator. (And forgive me for a slightly windy post, but I want to provide evidence for my congratulatory note.)
A week ago ("Don't Look Now . . . But There Won't Be an Obama Swag-Bag"), I warned that the numbers in the early voting were not sufficient for the Messiah to win---not in Colorado, not in Florida, and at the time, barely enough to carry California. Since then, the numbers in CO have improved for Obama, but in my view not nearly enough. The numbers in Florida remain daunting for him, and California still is stunningly close in terms of Democrat/Republican splits. Based on that, and some other factors, I predicted there would be no Obama victory, and no Obama "Swag-Bag." (Did anyone see the Obama voter who said the Messiah would pay off her mortgage and pay for her gas!?)
The developments in the past week have, if anything, strengthened my conviction that McCain will be inaugurated next January.
High numbers of undecideds remain in the major national polls. According to Dick Morris, "An undecided has already decided not to vote for Obama." While his claim that undecideds---based on a FOX poll---would go for McCain at a clip of 7:1 is, I think, exaggerated, our own Freeper kesg has made a similar argument. It's all about what he calls the 'death line' of 48% for Obama. In only a couple of polls, with drastic manipulations involving oversampling of Democrats, has Obama crossed that line.
Even National Review's anonymous sage "Obi Wan" doesn't seem to fully appreciate the significance of Obama's inability to "close the deal" at that number.
Then there is the completely un-discussed (save for conservative sites) phenomenon of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos." This was real, it registered thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of temporary Democrat voters who are "coming home." Then there are the disaffected Hillary voters---call them PUMAs, if you will---but they do constitute some percentage of the Democrat electorate that the media has been entirely unwilling to acknowledge. Sources tell me that while MI will still land firmly in Obama's column, his lead there has been cut by shocking levels due almost entirely to a scorched earth policy by the PUMAs and the 527s.
Taken together, however, these two groups of "Democrats" (one faux, one real but angry) are tiny compared to the number of white Democrats who think their party has been hijacked by a terrorist. Again, to the drive-by media, such people don't exist. To admit they were real---let alone in numbers---would destroy the entire mythos of the "surge in voter registrations." I'll say more of this in a moment, but for now, I predict---out on a limb here---that Obama will barely come close to Kerry's 2004 Democrat support number.
What does all this mean for the states? With indies breaking at a far higher rate for McCain than Obama, and with large segments of the Democrats voting Republican, you are likely to see both a very high level of Republican support for McCain (probably in the 90s), combined with a significant level of Dem support and late breaking independents. That breaks down to:
*CO will be Republican by about 2 points.
*NV will be a 2 point or better final for McCain.
*MO will be a 4 or 5 point McCain win.
*NM will end up a 2-point McCain loss.
*We will bring in OH at 2 or 3 points---better than Bush did in 04.
*FL will be a double digit McCain lead. GA and NC won't be that close.
*Here's the clincher: the southern part of VA, combined with the west, will give McCain a 1- to 2-point win in the Old Dominion.
*I won't predict NH, IA, or PA. These are very, very close. If I had to guess, I'd say McCain wins NH, loses PA by razor thin margins---but there's that darned "Bradley Effect," and it is real, and it may well bring PA along.
There are other dynamics at work that could, in fact, blow this open a tad for McCain (i.e., bring in IA, PA, NM, and even WI). First, GOPTrust is running $7 million---that's right, $7 million---in devastatingly effective Jeremiah Wright ads this weekend. McCain's support with the oldsters has been somewhat soft due to claims he'll "cut" Social Security, but these ads will scare the bejeezus out of them, and with good reason.
Second, Zogby's overnight not only had it a 1-point McCain lead, but noted that a very good Obama night was dropping off the rolling three-night average. Now, I know, it's the Zogs special sauce. Isn't IDB or Battleground supposed to be better? Well, it actually depends. I think Zogs has been so volatile because his poll has been extremely sensitive to rapid changes. The others have not been as, well, "emotional." Hence, they've stabilized (Battleground at under 4, IBD Tipp at 4 to 5). However, the McCain team said their polling showed that Obama lost ground with the infomercial. The polls didn't pick it up Friday because of the Halloween effect---families (otherwise known as Republican voters) were out with their kids. I think Zogs picked up that post-infomercial shift. Hello, Dickie Morris.
Battleground's "Battleground State" poll, in a little-reported item, noted that all the battleground states were within a point. It then did not define what these states were (hence, I think FL is excluded) but did include NM and IA. New Mexico? I thought Obama had this locked up in 2006!
Finally, the clincher in all this, as it has always been, is the white Democrat vote. And it was "early voting"---contrary to all conventional wisdom---where Obama lost the election. The drive-bys are obsessed with black turnout early (some indicators STILL don't convince me that it will equal Algore's 2000 level turnout, but I could be wrong on this, and it still won't matter).
The critical element of the "early" black vote that all pundits have missed is reflected in the Morris "7:1" comment. In normal elections, cameras go to polling places and show lines. High turnout, low turnout, but the crowds are almost always mixed. This year, "early" voting, combined with the emphasis on Obama's race (and he has run the most racist campaign since Bull Conner), the images have overwhelmingly been of . . . crowds of black voters.
By itself, this would disturb no one, until Obama begins to talk about "spreading the wealth around," and anyone making over (pick a number) $200,000 will see a "patriotic" tax increase and (feel a chill yet?) saying this will be a "transformational" election.
When the camera shots of the lines of black voters is combined with the rhetoric about "he's going to pay my mortgage and pay for my gas," working-class whites (indeed, everyone) starts to get a little antsy. No doubt, more than a few Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Missouri voters suddenly conjured up the Reconstruction images of "Birth of a Nation." "Do people on welfare really think after November 4 they will be moving into my house?" they ask. The House's hearings on nationalizing 401(k)s has percolated into the electorate, including the oldsters.
If I am proven right on November 5, and John McCain is elected president, it will be due to the incredibly stupid, wasteful ad spending by Obama for four months that was forgotten in the last 72 hours; it will be due the early voting that reinforced in the minds of the middle-class and white voters of all economic backgrounds that when Obama says he wants to "spread the wealth around," he really is coming for MY house.
And above all---let's give credit where credit is due---it will be because of a relentless performance by Sarah Palin, a brilliantly choreographed campaign by McCain's managers, and to the gritty, plodding but oh-so-successful turtle from Arizona.
In 2004, I called every competitive senate race except one, and I correctly called Wayne Allard's win in CO despite polls showing him trailing by 5.
In 2006 I was wrong on all the senate races. I had no inside polling, and was told if the Rs turned out, DeWine would win and Blackwell would make it close in OH. Well, the Rs in OH turned out and we found from down ballot voting that they didn't vote for DeWine or Blackwell. GUNS hurt DeWine a lot. There was an NRA-type mailer that went out at the last minute and turned a 1-point race into a loss. Blackwell was hammered by both Taft and the "Bradley Effect." Final polls had him at -6 to -10 . . . he lost by 25!
If I’m wrong, me being full of macaca will be the least of my, or your, worries.
If I’m wrong, none of us may have a job unless we want to take the tatoo on our forehead.
Half of winning is believing... and I BELIEVE we will win! I have been involved in competitions where your very life is on the line... those that win ALWAYS believe that they will win. Losers know they will lose before they step up to the plate... Like I said... I believe!!!
LLS
Which gallup? They have three... RV, LV and extended LV. They vary greatly in their numbers. They can cook your eggs any way that you want them served.
LLS
LLS
LLS
LLS
Glad you record in the last 2 pres. races was correct. Gives me confidence. But it is hard with all the doom and gloom. I wonder how many potential McCain voters are only following the “news” media and might not vote because they think it is a waste of time.
Dewine was behind only by 1 in ‘06? He ended up losing 44-56. You mean the NRA mailing hurt him? So pro gun people ended up going for Brown despite his overall far left record? Pretty sad.
Not true in Mississippi... and I have seen the real data.
LLS
All through the campaign (and I was working Blackwell, not DeWine) I kept hearing about guns, which was odd because DeWine had this great ACU record and guns had not seemed to be an issue. But he had a rep as anti-gun here and the mailer finished him.
LLS
Btw, what do you make of the poll reported by AP (?) yesterday showing 0bama ahead 59-40 among early voters? I hope that one is wrong too or we are in big trouble. It said a similar poll 4 years ago showed Bush winning 60-40. I absolutely do not recall any such news. All we heard last time was that early voting was supposed to favor the Dems. Maybe our friend Chet99 can dig up that poll from ‘04, if it actually exists. Hard to believe the race would be considered that close if Bush went into election day with a big lead.
..my EV map--for now...
Here in Dayton, we have an early walk-in vote advantage for the Dems (recognizing that ALL DEMS WILL NOT VOTE OBAMA) of . . .
sit down
12,000 (D) to 1,000 (R) to something like 6,000 (I).
Now, there are 58,000 more absentee/early votes out there, the large portion of them Rs.
I asked our chairman if these numbers bothered him and he said, "Not really. We have precincts here that literally are 400 to 2. I know. I walk them. All this means is that the blacks voted early---and they won't be voting on election day." In other words, you're going to see a dynamic we've never seen before in most states where the numbers still coming in are going to be from overwhelmingly R areas! It will be the reverse of MI, where you have all the R areas come in and everyone waits to be swamped by Wayne county.
Cool map. Even without PA, that’s a win. And I’d sacrifice a month’s pay to watch the MSNBC heads explode if they have to put that map up.
According to Ann Coulter, it's about 16%.
Good point!
Re: western VA. I recall reading somewhere that it’s hopeless (words to that effect) for Obama.
Although I live in PA, I am pretty familiar with western VA as we camp there often. It is a primarily rural, NASCAR rules, church on every corner, family oriented, hunting/fishing centered, friendly down to earth folks type of place. With the exception of Blacksburg (VA Tech) and Roanoke city, these people would see through Obama in the blink of an eye. They would love Palin.
There’s no doubt they’ll go big for McCain, but will it offset NoVA-hope so.
Can you help me find a thread sometime in the last 24 hours about early voting in FL showing a big McCain lead, but it mentioned Lee County. I can’t find what their voting patterns are, and my searches aren’t working.
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