Posted on 10/31/2008 10:04:10 AM PDT by tatown
Obama-51%, McCain-43% (Traditional LV)
Obama-52%, McCain-43% (Expanded LV)
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
STOP with the polls I am polled out already.. Lets just vote and win this.
Speak for yourself. I don't get a sense that Bozo is ahead at all, I think, judging by all the things I see, that McCain/Palin is ahead and will win handily on tues.
I compared this to the previous Gallop poll and it shows that McCain actually gained another 1% of Conservatives, 1% moderate Republican, 2% liberal Dem, and 2% Conservative Dem voters.
Yep they will cover with “we ran the wrong model”...”Never expected the Repubs to come out in these numbers”...”Bradley effect”...”Bogus ACORN registration...
They will have endless excuses. At the same time you have a significant number of Sheeple whom only care about having the ability to say “I voted for the winner” and that is what these pollsters are trying to do...skim a few percent for Bambi.
I can attest to your tagline after seeing Sarah Palin in person last evening. She is stunning!
She kinda reminds me of the 1940’s movie star Loretta Young, who also happened to be a very successful prolife-profamily working mother.
Remember, we have been living on polls for months. But the last time actual votes were cast Hilldawg was kicking Obama’s ass and he barely closed the deal. In actual primaries where people get to close the curtain he was weak.
LOL
Wow! Someone had a massive one-day polling!
Gonna look bad when that day drops out....... ;-)
Commercial. That said, that was a big jump, and worrisome.
I also am concerned that seniors appear to be moving to O, at least according to some polls.
Likely this is still going to be a McCain win, but with polls moving to a bigger O win, that is really hard to say Obama won’t win.
TAB
Battleground: O-49%, M-45% (O +1)
Read Alinsky. If Obamaites have not infiltrated the polls with an eye toward deflating the opposition (Prime Alinsky as practiced by Rahm Emanuel), then they are very poor disciples of Alinsky. How hard do you think it is to get a $10/hr job at one of these places and make a few slight adjustments? especially if there are a few of like-minded moles, making their almost-imperceptible adjustments as well?
Of course, it’s dishonest. But as Alinsky makes very clear, Winning trumps Honesty seven days a week.
I’m not concerned about this. As with all Gallup daily tracking poll numbers, you don’t know whether there is real movement or merely that more Democrats or fewer Republicans were willing to talk to Gallup pollsters yesterday.
Note that the total number of undecideds actually increased by a point. And even this number is understated because Gallup counts “leaners” as supporting the candidate they lean to rather than as undecideds.
By my calculation of the weekly internals, Gallup samples are typically 41D, 32R, and 26I (these are the actual numbers from the most recent weekly samples). 41D is at least two points too high, and 32R is 3-5 points too low. At the 37D, 37R, 26I distribution of 2004, today’s result would be closer to this (rough estimates):
Obama 47
McCain 47
Undecided 6 (more when leaners not included)
Which, again, indicates an eventual McCain win of around 49-50 to 47-48. Actually, McCain would do slightly better than this because slightly more Democrats vote Republican in Presidential elections than vice-versa.
The 41D, 32R, and 26I breakdown you reference, is that in their RV poll?
Rush said today that these pollsters are having as high as an eighty percent (!) refuse to answer rate. That means these polls are INVALID. (How many of those eighty percent are Mccain/Palin supporters? I’d best well over half.)
A lot of people watched that infomercial, probably many undecideds. It was sugary and made to appeal exactly to the type of low-information voters who are still undecided at this point. With the kind of audience a huge buy like that would reach I think it is not realistic to expect no movement at all. But, that type of movement is usually shallow and fades quickly. By Monday the race will probably be back to the 3%, perhaps even 2%, the polls were headed towards before yesterday.
Yes. Gallup does not publish this information for their likely voter samples. However, if you compare their registered voter samples to their two likely voter samples, they are almost identical. That in itself should be a red flag that there is something wrong with the samples. Of course, what's wrong with them is that they contain too many Democrats and not enough Republicans based upon actual exit poll data from recent elections.
What today's sample tells you, in essence, is this: if Dems have a 41-32 turnout advantage on election day, we expect Obama to win by around eight points. Well, duh! I don't need Gallup to tell me that. It's important to remember that Gallup, unlike most pollsters, makes no attempt to predict what party ID will be on election day in either one of its LV models.
What today's sample tells ME is that if turnout is more along the lines of 37-37 (2004), McCain will win. If it is like 1996 or 2000 (39-35), it will be razor close and could come down to the EC vote. If turnout is in between these two numbers, McCain will win the popular vote in a close race that may or may not come down to the EC.
Well, I guess we’ll just have to prove Gallup wrong.
I pray we do.
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