I got some Micro Polling from Pennsylvania.....

[Bushite]

These were conducted Oct. 23,24,25

Bucks County: O: 49 M: 43 2004 Results: K: 51 B: 48

Allegheny: O: 52 M: 42 2004 Results: K: 57 B: 42

Erie: O: 50 M: 43 2004 Results: K: 54 B: 45

York: M: 57 O: 39 2004 Results: B: 63 K: 35

Montgomery: O: 51 M: 39 2004 Results: K: 55 B: 44

[Russ]

What is B and K??

[TitansAFC]

1.) From where did you get the numbers?
2.) Party ID breakdown is?

[LS]

Not good. M trailing Bush everywhere.

[ccmay]

So what’s it mean? Looks to me like Obama is underperforming in blue counties and overperforming in red counties.

[wastedpotential]

Well, if the undecideds break to McCain, he could make up the 2% from 2004 he needs pretty easily. However, if they break evenly, he is pretty much screwed.

[Cosmo]

uhh.......”Burger” and “King”

[Thane_Banquo]

Zero trailing Kerry everywhere but York as well. Undecideds tend to break against the black candidate historically.

[ccmay]

Not good. M trailing Bush everywhere

That's because the 2004 results encompass the undecideds. These poll numbers do not include them.

-ccm

[Norman Bates]

Bush and Kerry.

[ccmay]

Not good. M trailing Bush everywhere

That's because the 2004 results encompass the undecideds. These poll numbers do not include them.

-ccm

[RobRoy]

Not so fast. Notice O trails K most everywhere as well. There seem to be more “undecideds” this time. That is very good, IMO.

[Bushite]

Bush..and Kerry.

[RIRed]

Only in Bucks, and that’s only 3 points off. Everywhere else is similar to 2004, meaning its close. If the #s are real that is. Where do they come from?

[LS]

There’s room here. But it’s a tight, tight window.

[snarkytart]

Eh. These numbers look like we’ll lose PA by the same margins as 2004. :(

[NonZeroSum]

You’re missing the point. Obama isn’t doing as well as Kerry did against Bush, except in York County. This is bad news for Obama, because it’s largely blue counties.

[Perdogg]

ping

[Norman Bates]

If true, these are very good numbers. Obama is trailing Kerry except in York. When you factor in undecideds and the Bradley Effect, I think McCain ultimately outperforms Bush.

[Reagan69]

O is also trailing K everywhere. Which means there are a lot of undecideds.

What county is Phil in?

The percent breakdown is O= 48%, Mac almost 45%.

I think that is GREAT news !!! Not the 11+ points we’ve been hearing and it explains why both campaigns are all over PA.

Source?