What is B and K??
1.) From where did you get the numbers?
2.) Party ID breakdown is?
Not good. M trailing Bush everywhere.
So what’s it mean? Looks to me like Obama is underperforming in blue counties and overperforming in red counties.
Well, if the undecideds break to McCain, he could make up the 2% from 2004 he needs pretty easily. However, if they break evenly, he is pretty much screwed.
Eh. These numbers look like we’ll lose PA by the same margins as 2004. :(
Chatted with a pollologist to make hide or hair of those numbers, and apparently it all comes down to Obamao’s margins in Philly, if it is below 400k and 80% of the vote, McCain can win PA, if Philly goes 80% for Obamao, it is a tough tough job to win PA.
Basically, McCain has to keep it reasonably close in Philly, and he has to up the margins that Bush got in the rural areas.
So if the polls are correct, Obama is doing about the same as Kerry did in 2004, maybe slightly better. It’s going to hinge on McCain doing better in Philly than Republicans usually do, or Obama doing worse in terms of turnout.
okay..I added them up to be simple.
Kerry got 253
Bush got 242
So far
Obama is getting 241
McCain is getting 234
For McCain that’s -7 from Bush’s numbers.
For Obama that’s -12 from Kerry’s numbers.
I’m probably all wrong here..LOL
Someone double check me!
26 posts and we haven’t yet established where these polling #’s come from?
Who are you and where did you get these numbers?
where do these numbers come from?
Interesting figures.
Allegheny looks good, to be expected.
I’d assume Luzerne and Lackawanna would look good.
The rest of South West would look good.
South Central (York, as well as Lancaster, Cumberland, Dauphin) might be a problem. Obama did pretty well there in the primary, and Ron Paul did pretty well there.
Someone tell me, are these numbers discouraging or encouraging?
Bucks County numbers surprise me.
BO is campaigning in the rain in PA. That’s all I know and all I need to know=BO is running scared!
Living in Erie, I don’t buy that poll. I think McCain will take Erie county and I daresay he may even take Allegheny county.
If undecideds continue to break for McCain, he could pull it off yet.
Blue County: O underperformance
Bucks: -2
Allegheny: -5
Erie: -4
Montgomery: -4
This is fantastic news, if you crunch the numbers.
In agggregate - for these counties in 2004 - Kerry won 56.4% of the vote to Bush’s 43.6%.
If these poll numbers are accurate (big “if”) and if the undecideds split evenly, that implies Obama at 53.5% and McCain at 46.5% in aggregate for these counties.
That’s a swing from a 12.8% D advantage to a 7% D advantage, or a 5.8% net swing.
Kerry only won PA by 2.5% in 2004. If McCain is outperforming Bush at these levels statewide, he wins. Easily.