[NYC_BULLMOOSE]

Encouraging poll results from the firm that was most accurate in 2004...

* McCain closes gap by 1.1% in the last 3 days * McCain now within 2.8% of Obama * Independent Voters Breaking for McCain

[NYC_BULLMOOSE]

UGH — apologies for bad formating — will fix now!!

[mnehring]

Helping ya out with the formatting.

John McCain vs. Barack Obama
Release Date	McCain	Obama	Undecided	Spread
October 27	44.2%	47.0%	8.8%	+2.8 Obama
October 26	43.3%	46.5%	10.1%	+3.2 Obama
October 25	41.9%	45.8%	12.2%	+3.9 Obama
October 24	42.3%	45.8%	11.9%	+3.5 Obama
October 23	43.7%	44.8%	11.6%	+1.1 Obama
October 22	42.0%	45.7%	12.3%	+3.7 Obama
October 21	40.9%	46.9%	12.1%	+6.0 Obama
October 20	41.4%	46.7%	11.9%	+5.3 Obama
October 19	41.5%	46.6%	11.9%	+5.1 Obama
October 18	39.8%	47.2%	13.0%	+7.3 Obama
October 17	40.6%	45.9%	13.5%	+5.3 Obama
October 16	41.6%	45.2%	13.2%	+3.6 Obama
October 15	41.9%	45.2%	12.9%	+3.3 Obama
October 14	41.9%	44.8%	13.3%	+3.0 Obama
October 13	42.7%	44.8%	12.5%	+2.1 Obama

[babydubya1981]

They just said on FOX a few minutes ago, today it will show a 4 point lead for Obama.

[wk4bush2004]

Awesome! We are soooooo gonna win this!

JOHN & SARAH!!!!!
JOHN & SARAH!!!!!
JOHN & SARAH!!!!!

[TornadoAlley3]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMY5VGYh2Go

[JohnRand]

It is encouraging, however, I’m surprised at the number for 18 - 24 year olds that are going for McCain. Not that I don’t think they should prefer him but that is against everything else I’ve heard about that demographic.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY14.htm

[WalterSkinner]

..if he keeps those IBD poll numbers below 5 points, he wins IMO...

[King of Florida]

This is yesterday’s IBD/TIPP tracking poll and was dissected here, well, yesterday.

[mnehring]

This day in 2004, thanks to Archive.org. (if they are as accurate as they claim, we have work to do, don't think it is breaking our way.)

http://web.archive.org/web/20041028075222/http://www.tipponline.com/

Release Date	Bush	Kerry	Undecided	Spread
October 27	47%	43%	11%	+4 Bush
October 26	47%	42%	10%	+5 Bush
October 25	48%	41%	11%	+7 Bush
October 24	47%	43%	11%	+4 Bush
October 23	47%	44%	10%	+3 Bush
October 22	45%	45%	11%	Tie
October 21	45%	44%	11%	+1 Bush
October 20	45%	45%	11%	Tie
October 19	45%	45%	10%	Tie
October 18	47%	44%	9%	+3 Bush
October 17	47%	43%	10%	+4 Bush
October 16	47%	44%	10%	+3 Bush
October 15	47%	43%	11%	+4 Bush
October 14	46%	42%	12%	+4 Bush
October 13	46%	43%	11%	+3 Bush
October 12	45%	44%	11%	+1 Bush
September 28	45%	46%	9%	+1 Kerry
September 20	46%	43%	11%	+3 Bush
September 13	47%	47%	6%	Tie

[kesg]

I said this in another TIPP poll thread and I’ll say it again. You can almost forget the top line in this poll, except for this: if Obama doesn’t get to 48 in this poll, he’s toast regardless of what McCain’s total is.

[1Old Pro]

McCain wins if he’s within 4

[Savage Beast]

Surely they will come to their senses by Nov 4.

[Cedric]

Why would a guy whose VERY FIRST post was 4 days ago post an old “encouraging” set of poll numbers, only to have others come in a dash the hopes of the faithful with today “bad news”?

[Proudcongal]

This is the posting of this poll today with yesterday’s results. I got excited for nothing. Posters need to do a search before posting old news.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Actually, that is yesterday’s news and it has been posted several times.

[Heff]

Folks...please explain to me how these numbers are relevant when the samples are completely unknown. It states 72% of people with no religious affiliation are voting for BHO, but the only sampled 25 people out of 1000, its meaningless...of they sampled 700 RATS to 300 Republicans, then the outcome is meaningless.

As Rove pointed out, there were 77 polls in 2004, and this year, there is 150+ ....they are push polling to effect the outcome, not to determine it.

[justlurking]

BTW, this was already posted yesterday.

The IBD/TIPP results are released each day about 1:00 Eastern. It is usually posted within 5-10 minutes, usually by multiple people.

I think we need a Polls sidebar during the last month or so before an election. Putting a popular poll in any other sidebar (including breaking news) quickly falls off the list -- and unless you know exactly what to search for, we get lots of duplicates.

[dervish]

The internals of this poll are different than others. The youth vote is for McCain by a wide margin.

[proudpapa]

Two thoughts:

First, Obama could easily win the popular vote and still lose the election. This is because Obama has huge leads in six very large states: California, New York, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey and Massachusetts.

OTOH, McCain has smaller leads in Texas, Florida, Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina.

Second, a certain percentage of people lie to pollsters. Now i don’t imagine very many liberals would lie about wanting to vote for Obama, but i think there are a number of conservatives and even PUMA’s that when polled claim they’re voting for Obama when in fact they’re voting for McCain.

If 2% are lying, and really voting for McCain, that is a 4 point swing. (+2 for McCain, -2 for Obama.) And that my FRiends is why this is very winnable for McCain.