Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Encouraging poll results from IBD/TIPP -- the firm that was most accurate in 2004 Election...
IBD / TIPP ^ | 10/27/2008 | IBD / TIPP

Posted on 10/28/2008 7:34:50 AM PDT by NYC_BULLMOOSE

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 61-8081-100101-120121-136 last
To: RGPII; mnehrling

Very cool! I’m going to have to try this sucker out!!! Anything that adds to my Internet arsenal is a must in my book :o)

Thanks—GGG


121 posted on 10/28/2008 9:57:21 AM PDT by GodGunsGuts
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 112 | View Replies]

To: WalterSkinner

PUMA,BRADLEY and Jewish. The was a poll posted last evening (Sorry can’t find) McCain had a 30 point gain in one day. Think it has to do with understanding “socialism” and the significance of the TV station being punished for asking difficult questions.

The Cuban American in FL also would understand these concepts. FL will go for McCain.


122 posted on 10/28/2008 9:58:12 AM PDT by hoosiermama (Acorn, Africa,Alinsky, Ayers,....BroadwayBank,Bastard child,Birthcert......now to the "C"s ;-))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 64 | View Replies]

To: NYC_BULLMOOSE

Thank you!


123 posted on 10/28/2008 9:59:02 AM PDT by mckenzie7 ( ANNA THE RETIREE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Corin Stormhands

While in college, I was truly, truly committed to voting for the great Hubert H. Humphrey.
However, in early November, I was abducted by a roaming band of scalawags who forced me to attend a 3 day kegger which unfortunately encompassed election day.


124 posted on 10/28/2008 10:00:32 AM PDT by Cedric
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 109 | View Replies]

To: theophilusscribe

Visual review says Undecideds are breaking 3:1 for Sarah.

If the remaining 8% break that way, McCain picks up 6%, Obamarx picks up 2%, McCain wins.

Huh...

Here’s hoping McCain will not find a way to screw this up.


125 posted on 10/28/2008 10:29:42 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Bushonomics: Privatize Gains, Socialize Losses......."PAULSON'S THEFT")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: NYC_BULLMOOSE

Two thoughts:

First, Obama could easily win the popular vote and still lose the election. This is because Obama has huge leads in six very large states: California, New York, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey and Massachusetts.

OTOH, McCain has smaller leads in Texas, Florida, Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina.

Second, a certain percentage of people lie to pollsters. Now i don’t imagine very many liberals would lie about wanting to vote for Obama, but i think there are a number of conservatives and even PUMA’s that when polled claim they’re voting for Obama when in fact they’re voting for McCain.

If 2% are lying, and really voting for McCain, that is a 4 point swing. (+2 for McCain, -2 for Obama.) And that my FRiends is why this is very winnable for McCain.


126 posted on 10/28/2008 10:45:17 AM PDT by proudpapa (McCain - Palin'08)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mnehrling

Large number of undecideds ...


127 posted on 10/28/2008 11:11:29 AM PDT by af_vet_1981 (Waiting for Samson and Voting for Sarah)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: LS
It tracks very, very tightly with the DOW.

...and who is manipulating the dow? Soros perhaps? Osama?

What ever happened to all the companies that were being manipulated and government forces were looking into??

128 posted on 10/28/2008 11:38:18 AM PDT by hoosiermama (Acorn, Africa,Alinsky, Ayers,....BroadwayBank,Bastard child,Birthcert......now to the "C"s ;-))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 117 | View Replies]

To: MaestroLC

Yep, and that will be the deciding outcome in this election, the undecideds control about 85% of the fate of the electorate .

The other half of that equation is Republican Base turnout.

Taxes, Taxes, Taxes....


129 posted on 10/28/2008 11:39:57 AM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: netmilsmom

“Voting for...”

That is just ruthless netmilsmom!!

LOL!


130 posted on 10/28/2008 11:42:17 AM PDT by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 114 | View Replies]

To: padre35

*blush*


131 posted on 10/28/2008 11:51:38 AM PDT by netmilsmom ( Obama And Osama both have friends who bombed the Pentagon)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 130 | View Replies]

To: Fishtalk; Perdogg; GOP_Lady; LS; perfect_rovian_storm; Chet 99; impeachedrapist; Norman Bates; ...
If you look at post 19 and the breakout for Bush in 2004, HE only made 48% one time. All the other times he only got up to 47%. So why must Obama reach 48% to win?

That's what political history tells you. It is very difficult for a Democratic candidate to get to 50% in a Presidential elections. Since 1964, it has happened only once, in 1976, and that just barely. But they get to 48% quite regularly. Kerry got to 48, Gore got to 48, Clinton got to 49.2 in 1996. But never higher than that. So, that 48% number is a floor -- if Obama isn't polling even that high in the TIPP poll (which doesn't push undecided voters to "lean" to a candidate), he's in trouble. That's not to say that he is out of the woods even if he does reach 48% -- I'm getting to that later.

Now, compare GOP history. Since 1972, Republican candidates have often exceeded 50% (even in 1992-1996 if you count Perot as a right of center candidate, which he was), and they never did worse than 48 (Ford in 1976, Bush in 2000 -- again counting Perot as a right of center candidate).

This is why I said Obama wasn't out of the woods even if he gets to 48. Because McCain is also going to get to 48, and the history (including the most recent history we have, the 2004 election, a high turnout election) tells you that the remaining voters will break more Republican than Democratic. Even BIll Clinton, arguably the most popular Democratic President since JFK, never got past the 49.2 point barrier. Dole and Perot combined for 49.1 points -- a virtual tie. This in an election year like this one, where the media treated the Democratic candidate's victory as a foregone conclusion. If Bill Clinton couldn't get much past 49% even with an approval rating much higher than that, well, by now you should see the problem. And he was an incumbent President running for re-election, with the same adoring media that Obama has now, running against a much weaker Republican ticket that was down double-digits in virtually every published poll.

One additional reason why even 48 may not be enough: Obama is going to win by huge margins in places like California, New York, and Illinois. These wins are going to inflate his national numbers, but not help him win remaining states he needs to get to 270 EVs.

Just for fun, I figured out what the 2004 result would have been if you had excluded these states from the national totals. Here is what I came up with:

Bush: 53.2

Kerry: 46.8

And it gets worse. Most of the remaining big states are non-competitive blue states such as Michigan, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. Not only that, but he should win Illinois by about 6 points more than Kerry did (based on recent polling). By contrast, the only big non-competitive red state is Texas, and even Texas won't vote for McCain by the same 23 point margin of four years ago. A much more likely number is about 10 points, which is the margin that most statewide GOP candidates typically win by here in Texas.

Those who do not know their history are likely to be surprised and shocked by it. Or something like that. Speaking for myself, I'm bracing for the coming riots and screams of "racism, racism!" :)

132 posted on 10/28/2008 12:13:19 PM PDT by kesg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 54 | View Replies]

To: kesg
Hey now! Michigan is still competitive, darnit!!! :-)

You can add DC to your inflated list. Regardless of the candidate, it's an instant 200,000 (give or take) vote advantage for the Democrat.

133 posted on 10/28/2008 12:16:33 PM PDT by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 132 | View Replies]

To: JohnRand

I early voted this a.m. near my work. The place was full of white retirement age voters. Dozens if not a hundred or more. What about that demo, anyone know?


134 posted on 10/28/2008 12:30:02 PM PDT by Let's Roll (Stop paying ACORN to destroy America! Cut off their government funding!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: impeachedrapist

DC is too small. I was focusing only on the big fish.

On MI, I hear ya but I think that dumb state simply has too many Red Wing fans who vote to flip this year. But hey, I don’t think it is entirely impossible for McCain to pull a big upset in MI.


135 posted on 10/28/2008 12:55:12 PM PDT by kesg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 133 | View Replies]

To: justlurking

Thank you!


136 posted on 10/28/2008 5:35:35 PM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 84 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 61-8081-100101-120121-136 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson