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The Left's Big Blunder (Why the Polls Inflate Obama's Support)
Zombietime Blog ^ | 10/21/2008 | Zombietime

Posted on 10/21/2008 6:55:07 AM PDT by bailmeout

Two campaigns are being waged right now for the presidency of the United States. No, I'm not talking about the Obama campaign and the McCain campaign. I'm talking about the real-world campaign and the meta-campaign.

The real-world campaign involves speeches and proposals and facts and scandals and political positions and news events. These details, however, are becoming increasingly irrelevant, and have become subsumed by the meta-campaign, which consists of perceptions, polls, reactions, analyses and summations. Until very recently, elections were decided by real-world facts -- but not anymore. Facts and events in and of themselves are no longer important; what's important is how everyone reacts to them. And how do we find out the public's mood concerning this or that incident? Why, the media tells us, that's how.

Or so we've been led to believe ...

(Excerpt) Read more at zombietime.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: antichrist; election; leftwingconspiracy; mccain; obama; polls
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This is a fantastic essay that explains why polls inflate Obama's support and also exposes the campaign to fool the American people into thinking an Obama victory is inevitable.

IMO, barring a major surprise the last two weeks of the campaign, McCain is going to win this thing and the aftermath will be ugly.

1 posted on 10/21/2008 6:55:08 AM PDT by bailmeout
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To: bailmeout

Wow!


2 posted on 10/21/2008 7:01:48 AM PDT by PajamaTruthMafia
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To: bailmeout

Question is, can the MSM be held liable for instigating the coming riots?

Nope.

However...we could point the mob to the MSM buildings and help direct the hate and anger at the apropiate people. Which wouldn’t really be instigating on our part...more like directing traffic.

Maybe Rush should move into Operation Directing Traffic, post election!


3 posted on 10/21/2008 7:01:57 AM PDT by woollyone ("When the tide is low, even a shrimp has its own puddle." - Vance Havner)
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To: bailmeout
McCain is going to win this thing and the aftermath will be ugly.

Yes...and yes.

4 posted on 10/21/2008 7:03:44 AM PDT by Bahbah (Typical white person-Snow white)
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To: bailmeout

buy your ammunition now.


5 posted on 10/21/2008 7:07:12 AM PDT by bestintxas (It's great in Texas)
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To: bailmeout
McCain is going to win this thing and the aftermath will be ugly.

Not near as ugly, for the country, as a McCain loss would be.

6 posted on 10/21/2008 7:11:00 AM PDT by MrB (0bama supporters: What's the attraction? The Marxism or the Infanticide?)
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To: bailmeout
Admittedly a small sample, but I have two Democrat friends who intend to vote Republican for the first time in their lives. While discussing this, I asked if they've told that to their Democrat friends. Both admitted “No”, they had not revealed their position. In fact, neither had admitted it to the other even though both know each other!

The bigger question is how many other Democrats are doing the same thing? To whatever extent this is true on a national scale, the polls are biased towards Obama. Given that some Democrats won't even disclose their feelings to friends, they could be in for a shock in Nov. Because of this bias, we will start hearing the same “Bush-stole-the-election” BS we heard after the last Presidential election. Since the Left has a tendency to burn things when they don't get their own way, if McCain wins, ACORN et al are going to be extremely PO’ed. I'd expect some places to go up in smoke.

I hope I'm wrong...

7 posted on 10/21/2008 7:11:11 AM PDT by econjack (Some people are as dumb as soup.)
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To: bailmeout

If McCain wins, I’ll be making about a half dozen suicide prevention calls. :-)


8 posted on 10/21/2008 7:11:46 AM PDT by Thrownatbirth (.....Iraq Invasion fan since '91.)
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To: bailmeout
The money quote:

I submit that this assumption is a catastrophic blunder. To the extent that there is any conformist behavior being exhibited by McCain supporters and undecided voters, it is much more likely to be normative conformity. In other words, people who are confronted with apparent overwhelming support for Obama may indeed announce that they too support Obama, but do so only in order to avoid ostracism or accusations of racism. Inside, however, they have not changed their minds. On November 4, they will go into that voting booth, and in total privacy and anonymity, they are free to vote for whomever they want, without fear of social condemnation for doing so. And in such a setting, normative conformity disintegrates, because there is no "norm" to conform to when your vote is anonymous.

9 posted on 10/21/2008 7:12:00 AM PDT by PajamaTruthMafia
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To: econjack

Go, Go, Go Go McCain...... Win, win, win one for the GIPPER!


10 posted on 10/21/2008 7:14:10 AM PDT by Republic Rocker
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To: Republic Rocker
We need a historical turnout to defeat the ACORN fraud. Period.

They've been working on this for a long time, and I don't see them trying to blow it.

If Obama steals it, they will make sure all channels of opposition and opinion are shut down, e.g., talk radio, internet. They've already done it the radicalization centers, er, I mean the colleges and universities.

If ACORN has planted their seeds for years and years, we need not just an army of squirrels - we need Americans with chainsaws to buzz through that oak tree. Don't let them steal the franchise!!!

11 posted on 10/21/2008 7:24:23 AM PDT by elk
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To: Bahbah
The aftermath is assuredly going to be ugly whether McCain wins or not.
12 posted on 10/21/2008 7:46:34 AM PDT by PUGACHEV
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To: econjack

I know a few people like that. One acquaintance always refered to Teresa HK as “that poor woman attacked by the right wing nuts”. She ranted and raved about the evil Bush. She hasn’t said a word, not a the first about this election.

I think the msm will scream about racism in America instead of the O being a socialist.


13 posted on 10/21/2008 7:49:50 AM PDT by Jaded ("Eloquence is no substitute for experience" -Joe Lieberman)
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To: econjack

I live in a small community in Oklahoma. This is normally democratic territory. Everyone in my social network with the exception of my mother, thick headed woman, is voting for McCain.


14 posted on 10/21/2008 7:57:42 AM PDT by mickidawn1969
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To: econjack

I know of at least 3 Democrat friends who intend to vote Republican for the first time. So that makes 5


15 posted on 10/21/2008 8:01:06 AM PDT by petercooper (I am a bitter clinger!)
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To: bailmeout

There’s another problem for Obama with the inflated polls. It energizes wavering Republican voters.

I voted early a few days ago. I had planned to vote for Bob Barr, but from the polls I’d seen it looked like Obama had a shot at carrying North Carolina. I decided I couldn’t chance helping him get NC’s electoral votes, so I held my nose and voted for McCain.


16 posted on 10/21/2008 8:08:09 AM PDT by murdoog (http://babydoc3.livejournal.com)
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To: murdoog

Thanks.


17 posted on 10/21/2008 8:13:05 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: bailmeout

Fascinating! Thanks for sharing.


18 posted on 10/21/2008 8:14:14 AM PDT by Jim Hill
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To: bailmeout

“And how do we find out the public’s mood concerning this or that incident? Why, the media tells us, that’s how.”....

And that’s exactly why Obama will lose.....Americans will give the media the middle finger in the voting booth.....


19 posted on 10/21/2008 8:17:58 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: bailmeout
Very interesting clarification of what is really happening with the Bradley Effect.

I can personally testify to the fact that I tend to pull my punches a bit if I sense that a statement I make may be perceived as racist, ------whether it is or not.

And there are lots of paranois people out there who fear to give their opinion.

---And all of this rolls back into the Rahn Emanuel Strategy: Dishearten and discourage your opponent at every opportunity. If such opportunities are not there, create them.

20 posted on 10/21/2008 8:25:34 AM PDT by cookcounty (Sarah and Todd Palin : They're more like us than we are.)
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