Posted on 10/19/2008 5:45:00 AM PDT by LS
Just over two weeks away from the election, we still have most major polls showing a 3-6 point Obama lead. There have been endless threads here about "voter ID," proper party identification, and so on, but the bottom line is that no matter whose poll one goes by, McCain at this point is behind. Whether he is even gaining ground is a matter of debate: he is in some (Gallup, Battleground), he's treading water in others (Rasmussen, IBD).
*Some of us have argued that these pollsters have been jimmying their samples. If that is the case, they must bring them into line in the next 10 days to even be close on election day so that their "final" poll can show only a 1-point Obama lead, thus allowing McCain to win and for them to claim some legitimacy. If these don't move in the next week, I think McCain is in trouble.
*Then there is the "Bradley Effect," which I have argued in a previous column is real, and can, in certain races, be a factor. I think it will be a factor here, but highly localized in OH, WV, PA, IN, perhaps parts of VA, possibly MO. While it might be present in IL, it won't offset Chicago. Elsewhere, I don't think it will matter because many of the other states where it might be a factor would be McCain states anyway.
*Would "Bradley" be enough to overcome fraud and/or the new "yout" voters? No, but it might offset. Personally, I'm less concerned with fraud than with simply getting beat. In OH, for example, the ballots are sequestered. Even if counted, 65% would need to be Dem/Obama voters; and all will be challenged. (As I understand the USSC ruling, it was about "standing" of the GOP, not the legality of the ballots or the Ohio SofS actully having to double-check them.) If these are cross-checked, fully half will be thrown out, if not more. That is not enough to give Obama a victory here.
*Without winning PA, McCain's road will be very tough. Based on what some of our local candidates are doing, I think McCain may win OH by a larger margin than Bush won in 2004; however, he may barely slip by in FL and NC, and right now, it looks as though he would lose CO, NV, and VA. Even PA isn't enough to overcome that.
*Don't count on "Joe the Plumber." Freepers like to think that the ideas that motivate them motivate everyone, but Rasmussen's poll yesterday showed a shocking majority of Americans favor taxing those over $250,000 more! Joe will not play to them.
As with anything, it doesn't matter that many of these people will themselves be subject to new and heavier taxes. Many are retired people who think because they don't have a $250,000-a-year income they will be safe; or are lower middle class who don't understand the impact Obama's tax plans will have on their retirement accounts, not to mention (likely) their employment and everything else. Perception is reality in politics, and it may well be that McCain has fallen into an Obama trap by using the "socialism" word, which many people take as a sign of desperation rather than a legitimate description of Obama's plans.
*The ad buys have been entirely Obama's so far. McCain's plans have been for a 72-hour blitz. Studies show that, in fact, the closer to an election a message is heard, the more likely it is to stick. So perhaps this is well founded. But there is nothing to say that Obama can't keep spending. His Soros-money is unending. This remains the wild-card in the race.
*The Palin factor: Palin has done what McCain could never do, energize the base. But unlike 2004, merely getting the base out may not be sufficient to offset the new "yout" voters and the fraud. McCain must carry the "independents" by a slight margin. We'll know one thing when this is over---if his 8-year "maverick" strategy had any foundation at all, because he has rolled the dice on being able to convince independents and Democrats to vote for him. I'm skeptical, but do think that an ideologue, such as a Duncan Hunter, would not even be in the race now. We would have already had the coronation. McCain was probably the only candidate we could have run in an anti-Bush year and stayed close.
*Finally, we'll pick up a few seats in the House, but lose some other Republican seats for a net loss of at least 10. It might not be as bad as some pundits think, but the Dems will still hold the House. They will pick up anywhere from 4-6 seats in the Senate, and be very close to the 60-vote majority once the RINOs are factored in. It won't be pretty, regardless of who the president is, when it comes to judges, "fairness doctrine," and so on.
I think this will badly hurt Obama in PA---but it will greatly help him in VA and MO, where you have large black populations that are enthused.
If McCain can't take Alaska then he should go home.
MN is a true tossup.
Minnesota will go for Obama. I'm not as quick as you to write off Virginia, however.
To me, the whole presidential race comes down to VA, CO, and NV; the senate comes down to MN and CO.
>> NC, MS, and GA are safe
Come on, just look at the numbers.
NC:
RCP Average 10/06 - 10/15 — 46.8 43.5 Hagan +3.3
Research 2000 10/14 - 10/15 600 LV 49 45 Hagan +4
Rasmussen 10/08 - 10/08 700 LV 49 44 Hagan +5
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 10/06 - 10/08 600 RV 45 42 Hagan +3
WSOC-TV
Not only it’s not safe, it’s heavy D lean.
GA and MS are better, but I think GA is a tossup at this stage. CO is simply a Dem lock, with RCP average D +9.3
Funny thing - Stevens staying out of jail is really the only thing which may prevent Dems getting 60 seats.
You are right. “Spread the Wealth” personalized the converasation.
The question is no longer: Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago?
The NEW question is: Do you want a country where everyone works for and is allowed to keep most of what they earn? Or do you want to become a socialist nation where hard work is punished by high taxes and your earnings are confiscated for the ‘good of all’.
THAT is the new conversation.
As for the presidency, I've still no idea who will win. But whichever one it is it'll be by fewer than 300 electoral votes.
Kennedy won't come back in LA. He's too far down against an incumbent.
We’ll see. In 2004, I had Dole picked early to win her seat, despite bad poll numbers.
Don't even understand the meaning of.
No, most people truly do not want to think that policies they happen to like are “socialism.” So they refuse to hear the word. It just doesn’t resonate. That’s why to a large degree it’s counterproductive for conservatives to even go there.
Four ‘known unknowns’ in the polls:
“Bradley/Wilder Effect”: disinclination to say one is voting for the person like them
“Palin Effect”: analagous for women respondents
“Unlikely Voter Effect”: new registrants (400,000 in Va! how many will turn out?)
“The Sub-prime Effect”: A dramatic redistribution of voters is skewing the geographic weighting of polls.
Too much weirdness this election to make sense of the polls.... guess I’ll go ahead and vote.
A few weeks ago i would have agreed with you in regards to the doom-and-gloomers. The more i think about it though the less certain i am. God gives us choices and lets us choose our path. The Holy Spirit guides us toward the right path but it is up to us to follow. Individually and collectively as a people, we are free to choose heaven or hell.
And last night i was thinking how incredible this election is with so many uncanny coincidences. But are they simply coincidences or are they perhaps warning signs? Let’s go through a few of them, if you would.
* On Sept. 11, 2001 the United States was attacked by a terrorist named Osama. That very same day another terrorist just happened to have an article about him come out in the hometown paper of the city attacked in which he says he wish he had done more (bombings). This same “former” terrorist just happened to help launch The One’s political career in his very own living room. Furthermore, a strong case is being made that he ghostwrote The Chosen One’s books and that he was certainly much more than “just some guy in the neighborhood.”
Not a good omen, perhaps?
* A couple years later we were again at war with the dictator of Iraq named Hussein. And coincidentally enough the next President of our country might be Barack (rhymes with Iraq) Hussein Obama. Just one letter away from Hussein Osama.
Not a good omen, perhaps?
* A cousin of this same Obama just happens to be Odinga, who has been spreading much bloody “hope” and “change” over in Kenya.
Not a good omen, perhaps?
* The reverend and spiritual mentor of Mr. Obama for 20 years just happens to be notorious for preaching hate in a house of God and saying things like “G** D*** America!”
Not a good omen, perhaps?
It is as though God is saying “Hello down there, anyone awake? How many more signs do you need?”
Besides, if we elect an unrepentant abortion supporter as our leader — making our top 3 leaders in government strong pro-abortion advocates — should we really in all seriousness still expect to be protected by God? Would we deserve to be?
No, perhaps it is not the end times....but perhaps it will be the beginning of the end of our country as a truly great nation.
It’s our choice.
He was talking about Senate races.
I'm not going to debate religion, though. If you want to think that these are the "end times," not a whole lot we can do about it. God does have His timetable. And since His kingdom is not of this world, it gets a little burdensome to continually think we're gonna get it here, anyway. I keep trying, but I'm not operating under any illusions.
I din’t think Pennsylvania is out of the question. McCain would have to start scoring some points pretty soon, though. His internals have to show the state in play since he hasn’t written it off like he’s written off Wisconsin and Michigan.
I don't take that as God forsaking His people, but them forsaking him. God is far more long sighted than I and maybe something wonderful is down the road, but it is hard to think of the loss of what I know. The examples you pointed to still included the Israelites being held in bondage.
When I look at the photo of 100,000 standing before Obama a self avowed socialist with his abortion “to delivery date” ideas, my heart aches. When I see seniors willing to sell out the world of their grandchildren because they fear losing a bit of Medicare benefit, I hurts me.
We have survived lousy leaders before, but Obama with friends like Ayers wants our way of life to be totally destroyed and replaced by socialism. I see it as my statement to God that I will stand against all that Obama stands for and fight to defeat him. If he wins the election, I will know that I have done all I can and will never change my principles.
Here again is the end of my previous post: "No, perhaps it is not the end times....but perhaps it will be the beginning of the end of our country as a truly great nation. It is our choice."
I stand by that statement. It is true that no one can say when the end times will come, and not much we can do about it anyway, but the end of America's greatness could well be near at hand if we continue down our current path and ignore the signs. And there is something we can do about that, at least. We can continue to try to wake up the citizens of this great country to the fact that the Chosen One (chosen by Ayers?), the Trojan One, is at the gate. Will we unsuspectingly usher him and his comrades into the White House or will we wake up in time to send them back home disappointed?
We are already starting to second and third level effects of a possible Obama presidency, and they are chilling!
First, this cult of personality around Obama is reminiscent of others who became tyrants.
Second, Obama is a collectivist - spreading the wealth around. Collectivists care about the common good - as they see it - and care less for the individual. Collectivists also tend to be elitists - THEIR view is only valid one, and it's end justifies any means.
Third, opponents of Obama are being attacked and smeared for simply questioning the veracity of what Obama says. Cases in point: the smear against “Joe the Plumber,” the Palin family (including previously off-limits children), and labeling any opponent as “racist.” When do the Obama Youth start reporting variance in accepted thought?
Fourth: Media opponents to Obama are already being punished (KDKA in Pittsburgh - see WND)in the name of “fairness.” Watch your First Amendment rights slashed when the “Fairness Doctrine” is re-instituted. Who will be the independent watchdog of the People - the MSM - I DON’t THINK SO. The MSM is so biased for Obama that it has ceased to be amusing - it's frightening that the MSM isn't even concerned anymore to hide its bias.
Finally, I'm frightened of the extent that voter fraud, opponent intimidation, and outright lies have been overlooked - where is the outrage? Where is the indignation of wrongs that used to make us Americans mad?
Get the word out. Flood blogs, specially those of the MSM. Remember that a vote not cast for McCain/Palin is a vote for Obama and all he stands for.
My plan if The Marxist gains power: SPEND AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE, and invest outside the 401(k) system (think CD’s — with his policies, interest rates will skyrocket and the market will stagnate). And EVERY G*DD*MN TIME I walk into a store and see O supporters working there, I’m walking out — and driving to a red county to shop instead. I have no intention of supporting their paychecks.
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