Posted on 10/19/2008 5:45:00 AM PDT by LS
Just over two weeks away from the election, we still have most major polls showing a 3-6 point Obama lead. There have been endless threads here about "voter ID," proper party identification, and so on, but the bottom line is that no matter whose poll one goes by, McCain at this point is behind. Whether he is even gaining ground is a matter of debate: he is in some (Gallup, Battleground), he's treading water in others (Rasmussen, IBD).
*Some of us have argued that these pollsters have been jimmying their samples. If that is the case, they must bring them into line in the next 10 days to even be close on election day so that their "final" poll can show only a 1-point Obama lead, thus allowing McCain to win and for them to claim some legitimacy. If these don't move in the next week, I think McCain is in trouble.
*Then there is the "Bradley Effect," which I have argued in a previous column is real, and can, in certain races, be a factor. I think it will be a factor here, but highly localized in OH, WV, PA, IN, perhaps parts of VA, possibly MO. While it might be present in IL, it won't offset Chicago. Elsewhere, I don't think it will matter because many of the other states where it might be a factor would be McCain states anyway.
*Would "Bradley" be enough to overcome fraud and/or the new "yout" voters? No, but it might offset. Personally, I'm less concerned with fraud than with simply getting beat. In OH, for example, the ballots are sequestered. Even if counted, 65% would need to be Dem/Obama voters; and all will be challenged. (As I understand the USSC ruling, it was about "standing" of the GOP, not the legality of the ballots or the Ohio SofS actully having to double-check them.) If these are cross-checked, fully half will be thrown out, if not more. That is not enough to give Obama a victory here.
*Without winning PA, McCain's road will be very tough. Based on what some of our local candidates are doing, I think McCain may win OH by a larger margin than Bush won in 2004; however, he may barely slip by in FL and NC, and right now, it looks as though he would lose CO, NV, and VA. Even PA isn't enough to overcome that.
*Don't count on "Joe the Plumber." Freepers like to think that the ideas that motivate them motivate everyone, but Rasmussen's poll yesterday showed a shocking majority of Americans favor taxing those over $250,000 more! Joe will not play to them.
As with anything, it doesn't matter that many of these people will themselves be subject to new and heavier taxes. Many are retired people who think because they don't have a $250,000-a-year income they will be safe; or are lower middle class who don't understand the impact Obama's tax plans will have on their retirement accounts, not to mention (likely) their employment and everything else. Perception is reality in politics, and it may well be that McCain has fallen into an Obama trap by using the "socialism" word, which many people take as a sign of desperation rather than a legitimate description of Obama's plans.
*The ad buys have been entirely Obama's so far. McCain's plans have been for a 72-hour blitz. Studies show that, in fact, the closer to an election a message is heard, the more likely it is to stick. So perhaps this is well founded. But there is nothing to say that Obama can't keep spending. His Soros-money is unending. This remains the wild-card in the race.
*The Palin factor: Palin has done what McCain could never do, energize the base. But unlike 2004, merely getting the base out may not be sufficient to offset the new "yout" voters and the fraud. McCain must carry the "independents" by a slight margin. We'll know one thing when this is over---if his 8-year "maverick" strategy had any foundation at all, because he has rolled the dice on being able to convince independents and Democrats to vote for him. I'm skeptical, but do think that an ideologue, such as a Duncan Hunter, would not even be in the race now. We would have already had the coronation. McCain was probably the only candidate we could have run in an anti-Bush year and stayed close.
*Finally, we'll pick up a few seats in the House, but lose some other Republican seats for a net loss of at least 10. It might not be as bad as some pundits think, but the Dems will still hold the House. They will pick up anywhere from 4-6 seats in the Senate, and be very close to the 60-vote majority once the RINOs are factored in. It won't be pretty, regardless of who the president is, when it comes to judges, "fairness doctrine," and so on.
I think the LORD of the universe knows how to protect His people. He said he wouldn't destroy Sodom if there were just 10 good men (and women). Well, here's one---I'm sure we can find nine more out there! Moreover, God protected the Israelites in bondage from plagues, storms, and horrible maladies. He kept lights on in the city of Goshen when the Egyptians were in total darkness. And when He freed the Israelites, the Egyptians gave them all their gold and silver!!
So take heart. The government is not our source, and thus the government can't take away what is given by God. We survived FDR, and Obama is a piker compared to that slimy devil. We survived Bill Clinton and Obama doesn't have near the smarts or skills he did.
On Nov. 4, either way, God is in control and will protect those who call upon Him.
“On Nov. 4, either way, God is in control and will protect those who call upon Him.” - well said!
He needs to do an ad that BO is trying to BUY votes, or steal them (ACORN).
It seemed to work with Romney. Americans don’t like to think they are being “bought”... unless, of course, it’s welfare.
Great post LS, thanks!
If this is true, it's all over for the republic, it doesn't matter who wins the election. Once a majority of citizens in a democracy decide that a group should be taxed more heavily after they reach a certain arbitrary level of income or wealth, it's over.
The next step is easy, whether BHO or one of his socialist successors is elected. Just inflate the currency, a process that is already well underway, until everybody makes over $250,000.
I disagree. My GF, who is decidedly non-political, picked up on the JTP thing completely independent of me. She mentioned it to me yesterday and we had a great talk about it. She wasn't going to vote for Obama but she had no real, personal reason why other than the fact that she knew I didn't want him elected. When she hear about Obama's infamous answer to JTP, she became uncorked! It just fully hit her what Obama's Marxist policies really mean to the middle class. A proud moment for me, for sure. If she finally got the message all by herself, I know that other indifferent people have as well.
Then I told her about the way the MSM and Obama's thugs are smearing JTP...
McCain will NOT attack enough to win the election.
We CAN.
Flood the MSM out with emails with videos, articles, documentation.
McCain’s anemic attempts to fight Obama back is losing this election.
Please go to
http://www.protestthemedia.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=7
and pick up all the email addresses to the McCain camp and HUNDREDS of emails of MSM.
SEND A FREE FAX!! https://faxzero.com/
CAN THEY IGNORE A MILLION EMAILS?
Your 4-6 seats estimate of Senate losses is too low. VA, NM, CO, NH seats are gone.
NC, OR, AK, MN are Dem leans; and MS, GA are R leans. It is unlikely we can win all 6, and can well lose 3 or more of them.
In the House, keeping losses at 20 seats or less would be a pleasant surprise.
why should we fear the new Woodrow Wilson, Colombians, Israelis, Ukrainians,South Koreans they’re the one who should be scared. And if we’re dragged into a war because we have the weakest Chief Executive in History that’s OK because we’ll know as always Allah is on our side.
“Just over two weeks away from the election, we still have most major polls showing a 3-6 point Obama lead. There have been endless threads here about “voter ID,” proper party identification, and so on, but the bottom line is that no matter whose poll one goes by, McCain at this point is behind. Whether he is even gaining ground is a matter of debate: he is in some (Gallup, Battleground), he’s treading water in others (Rasmussen, IBD).”
Of course the popular vote matters not at all anyhow. What matters is the vote on a per-state basis. CA and NY might give NObama the popular vote, but he could still lose. :-)
Beware the riots though.
McCain/Palin ‘08!
Thanks, LS. We all needed to hear that!
And, depending on which expert you hear from, either this election or the next election in 2012 America will elect the President who will have to deal with Social Security spending being higher than receipts, which will artificially increase the deficit just as the SS surplus has been artificially decreasing the deficit.
With Democrats in charge, with filibuster proof majorities, who will the democrats and media blame? Probably Joe the Plumber.
IMHO, I think he wants to BRING AMERICA DOWN TO A THIRD WORLD LEVEL......all the other Presidents just wanted America to be BETTER, in their own view.....Obama wants America to be WORSE.
You’re right about the tax argument not registering with many voters. I listented to Sean Hannity show last week and he just had call ins from Obama supporters. They all thought higher taxes were just fine (becasue they didn’t think it would affect them.)
We have a woman at work who’s voting for Obama, while everybody else is voting McCain. She doesn’t think the tax issue will affect her, but our employer is an S corporation and would suffer under the Obama tax plan, and if the business suffers, that might mean layoffs.
My plan would be to lay off the Obama supporters first, LOL (just kidding) but maybe then they’d get the message that when the rich are taxed more...they may be taxing you right out of a job.
thecabal is right and LS is wrong on this topic. LS, you didn’t even quote Obama’s words to Joe and even thecabal didn’t either, only referring to “Obama’s infamous answer”
In case anyone has forgotten, Obama said he intends to “spread the wealth around”.
Many political philosophers that wrote about our republic and other emerging republics during our countries infancy concluded, our republic as it was formed is a finite entity.
The conclusions were that people will eventually prefer social and economic equality over liberty and patriotism; universal suffrage is a mistake as politicians will always engage in class warfare, and those that have not achieved will always vote to bring those that have to their level; a short while after handouts are accepted complete dependence will follow.
I do not know of any solution to this problem, short of a revolution of some sort.
I believe it was Franklin who originally stated this... and oh how true it is. Ignorance fuels this... envy... and a misplaced, deep inner hate. The socialist indoctrination is now complete... and the stooges they pump out of our public schools can recite it backwards. They have oodles of unearned self-esteem... but can't make change without a calculator.
It may not be the end of the world......but it's one hell of a start to the end of America.
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