Posted on 10/14/2008 2:58:15 PM PDT by Born Conservative
Edited on 10/14/2008 5:44:49 PM PDT by Sidebar Moderator. [history]
Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olan who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.
Sean Smith, who is heading Obama's Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant "went rogue", and aknowledged that Grant was "reprimanded" for this. Sean would not deny that the internal poll showed this, and his words were carefully chosen.
Your welcome. I sent the link to Drudge and Rush, although I doubt anything will come of it.
So if one safely assumes that PA is about 3 points more Dem than the nation as a whole (as measured by national polls), then a two-point Obama lead in PA spells major trouble for Obama nationally. Think this leaked internal poll is bogus? Then why are all four candidates spending so much time in PA? Why are they spending so much money in PA? We can argue about the particular percentage points, but a reasonable, objective person has to conclude that both campaigns view PA as up for grabs.
And since Ohio tends to be more Republican than PA, it's fair to say that Obama's not doing too well in OH. This is so far supported by somewhat tepid turnout and other word coming out of the Buckeye State.
If the Obamessiah loses OH, his path to the Presidency becomes very narrow. If he loses PA, his journey's over.
Very good analysis. Another thing about PA is that the Clintons for McCain have set up offices in PA and they are out working like crazy to defeat Obama. Think you will see rural PA come out in large numbers to support McCain over Obama. That Berg lawsuit is right there in PA by a Democrat so who knows how much impact that has with the delay tactics of Obama/DNC.
I believe Ohio is going McCain — in fact, I would bet on it. A lot of cities went through the race riots in Ohio and I would be willing to bet that the people who live around Dayton will not forget what it was like. With his campaign people talking riots, whites/Hispanics will not vote for Obama. I grew up there in a solid Republican county just north of Dayton. Suffice it to say Bradley affect is alive and well in Ohio. To this day if I am back in that area, I would never drive through west Dayton — never, ever.
I throw out the Bradley Effect. If it's real, the Obamessiah gets creamed. If it's a myth, I still think based on everything I've seen that McCain/Palin defeat Obama/Biden.
With a 2% gap, the race in PA will be decided by which side gets more of their people to show up on election day. That's all it means. The PA race will go to the more motivated side.
“internal” poll = over-sampling of democrats. Of course that would show Hussein ahead.
One sidenote: 2004 is a bit of a special case. John Kerry was Catholic, and his wife was the widow of one of Pennsylvania’s most popular politicians. Plus, Bush is the type of Republican who simply isn’t going to do as well in PA as McCain. And then there is the Sarah Palin factor, which should work especially well with all those unwashed Steeler fans in Western PA as well as other similar people in NE PA. I’m guessing that all this is worth 2-3 points for McCain, meaning that PA this year will be only very slightly more Democratic than the national average — say a single point. This is all guesswork of course.
When McCain/Palin win this race the media response is going to be well worth putting up with their 24/7 Obama cheerleading.
The Dems will lauch a lawsuit saying Obama couldn’t possibly lose because the polls said he won - LOL
Agree McCain/Palin will win without the Bradley factor.
PA does have a lot of veterans. That almost certainly helped Kerry (did you hear? he was in Vietnam!). And now war hero McCain is going up against a Harvard attorney whose claim to be Commander-in-Chief is that he has executive experience running his own campaign. Mmmm hmmmm.
As long as I see Katie Couric fighting back tears as she announces PA's 21 electoral votes for McCain, I don't really care how it plays out! :-D
I am in awe of your brilliance! :-)
And the welfare DUmmies think that their bozo (Obama) is a shoe in. HIarious. What a bunch a self deluted idiots.
Sarah Palin is going to help McCain primarily in Western Pennslyvania and in the NE part of the state. I happen to have relatives and acquaintances in Pittsburgh who are voting Republican for the first time in their life (they are some of those white Catholic blue collar worker types that we have been hearing so much about). That was before Sarah, and even more strongly so after Sarah. Yes, it’s anecdotal, but I have known these people for decades and this is the first election in their lifetime where they are voting for a Republican for President.
Good thing you mentioned the veterans. Many veterans were never comfortable with Bush because he served in the Texas National Guard. McCain is an entirely different story for them.
If I was running, and making decisions to spend millions of dollars (and my more valuable time)...I would want an accurate poll.
Another way to look at this is to note that in 2004, Dems had a 2 point turnout advantage over Republicans (2 more than the national average). Kerry won the state by about 2 points. In 2000, the PA exit poll data is unavailable, but Gore won the state by 4 points. Nationally, the Democratic advantage was 4 points. Perhaps we can guess that the advantage in PA was likewise 4 points or something very close to it.
So, you can say that PA is probably 1-2 points more Democratic than the national average. But I just don’t see Barack Obama doing as well as Kerry did in PA, and that’s without regard to how poorly he did there against Hillary Clinton. And I see McCain doing better in PA than a guy like George Bush, especially among the state’s heavy veteran population.
My guess is that this year PA is going to vote right at the national average, meaning that if McCain wins the popular vote, he’s going to win PA as well.
That should say polls that show 56% of repsondents are female. There is now way that on Nov 4th in PA 56% of voters are going to be female and only 44% male. It may be 51 female, and 49 male and even that is a stretch. Also no way 44% of those voting will have bachelor’s degrees. Palin will turn out the rural conservative base especially the working class Democrats who don’t vote for national Democrats (Reagan Democrats).
Can you post those 2004 PA turnout results by percentage.
That is important because most of the recent PA polls show that 50% of respondents are Democrats and only 38-40% are Republicans. That is showing a 12 point difference.
With all the money he been throwing around in PA he should be up 10. If he wasn’t in trouble in PA, why did he send Biden and the Clinton’s to Scranton?
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