Posted on 10/08/2008 12:15:26 PM PDT by pburgh01
I was eating lunch today with the wife on her birthday. The table next to us was a gentleman and a young lady, well dressed, curiously looking at papers spread out over the table. The fellow had a briefcase with a huge McCain\Palin Victory sticker. Wife and I whispered about who they can be. Wife turned around and just had to ask. Well this was a Republican party of Pennsylvania honcho in charge of the Victory campaign for the good guys. We got into an interesting discussion about the debates, polling, etc. This what I heard…. It was very encouraging, the numbers that the campaign has been seeing. Not Zogby, Rassmussen, etc. He said real political analysts think those polls are for mass media consumption and not very accurate. This is straight from the horses mouth folks…McCain campaign is showing nationwide between +2-4 for McCain. I questioned the accuracy saying well all the polls I have seen, blah, blah. He interrupted me, “Like I said ignore those polls , about useless”. He said remember we had this talk , McCain will win Pa by at least 2 points. So buck up fellow soldiers.
Ok, good points all.
How do you feel about the vaunted Republican GOTV effort? Will it still be effective without Mehlman/Rove at the helm? The 72 hour operation of the GOP was always thought to be superior - I’ve heard that’s where Obama based his own organization on.
I think the GOTV operation will be just fine. For that, I thank Sarah Palin and, in a negative sort of way, Barack Obama, his many celebrity friends, and his adoring media. The more I think about it, the more I am starting to think that this year is going to be 2000 in reverse. Let’s hope I’m right. :)
This may be the other one:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2100798/posts
I’ll believe it when I see the proof. It better be good.
I don’t know how the GOTV effort is going, but Republicans vote like everyone else brushes teeth, which is why low turnout favors Republicans. It’s a special effort only for Democrats and Independents.
To add in the pile of hearsay and anecdotes, I live in a blue blue blue blue area and I’ve seen equal numbers of McCain and Obama signs here (granted, both are very few) with the edge going to McCain lately. By comparison, the place was blanketed in Kerry stickers in 2005.
Yeah, I have a similar anecdote. I live in a very liberal part of St. Louis, and McCain signs are running about even with Obama signs.
Why doesn’t the GOP have a counterweight to the GOTV efforts of the ACORNs, the ACTs, and the MoveOns of the world. Our party is pretty good at it, but it seems like the infrastructure on the left is so much larger.
Very cute!
Why link? They can just post their thoughts right here on FR.
Why change tactic midstream?
Yes, but they won’t even give us a hint. Will you?
what about the “massive Democrat registration” drive
You’re probably thinking of the “youth” vote chimera. Every election, going back to McGovern, the propaganda press tells us of the enormous, giant, unprecedented registration of the “youth” vote that will slay the conservative dragon.
Consider, how well that “youth” vote helped to elect presidents McGovern, Anderson, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry.
Keep working on this election, but take a break for a cup of coffee and jelly doughnut to reassemble your logic after listening to the lying rat propaganda machine.
I agree, I’ve just that “this year is different”. Youth registered, but they “really didn’t care” about Mondale, McGovern, or Kerry. George Will (think what you want) agrees. He thinks that the new voters will in fact show up for Obama this year.
Like I've been saying, it's more like 2004, not 2006.
Furthermore, I don’t believe any of those candidates held leads in the polls this late in the election, or by near the same margins as Obama is right now.
I don't agree, and there's not enough data at your link to check it out. Yes, normally split Indies broke for the Dems in 2006. But how many of those Independents were Republicans two years prior? Without a measure of that, I'd really like to look at turnout data (paging Michael Barone) of strong GOP areas, swing districts, etc.
Anything is possible. But if this election follows the 2004 model, then McCain would need to win the popular vote by about 9% in order to carry New Jersey. That's a tall order. Now, you can make the argument that enough crossover Dem votes (PUMAs) might put NJ into play with a lower margin. Could be.
I think NJ FReepers need to get excited that Lautenberg can be knocked out of his Senate seat. Yes, I know Dick Zimmer isn't a conservative, but it's a start. He's certainly better than Laut.
Well, I don’t have any additional data either. I do remember that many of those races were razor-thin close, but nearly all of them broke the Democrats’ way.
As for how many 2006 Independents were Republicans in 2004, I don’t know. As you correctly point out, my handy dandy chart doesn’t give me that information.
Michael Barone is the Sarah Palin of political analysts. :)
Bookmark.
That's often what they do (if they're polling a particular state). But to use 2006 (an off-Presidential year) is a problem, especially when it was such an anti-GOP year. Since Palin has been put on the ticket, I've been convinced the GOP turnout will resemble 2004.
What're you talking about? You've beaten two excellent teams - New England and San Diego. Now LAST year was tough.
Most of the statistical analyses of the 2000 vote that I saw estimated the fraudulent vote at around 5 million nationwide.
I would assume that the Democrats' ability to manufacture votes has not significantly declined over the past eight years.
I’ve just that “this year is different”.
No it’s not.
Trust history over hype.
http://www.nationalreview.com/goldberg/goldberg200411051028.asp
“The youth vote is bunk. It’s a mirage. Fools gold. A Nietzschean vital lie. A will-o’-the-wisp. A media confabulation. Nonsense. Hooey. Baloney, bilge, hogwash, and hooey.”
Want me to buy you a cup of coffee and a jelly doughnut?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.