Posted on 10/06/2008 6:33:32 AM PDT by CatOwner
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year. It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point. The Democratic candidate has gained six full percentage points of support since Lehman Brothers collapsed to start the Wall Street mess ...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Yeah. The Obama/Ayers/Wright stuff should have been pushed months ago, not in the last month of the campaign. I like hearing Palin go after him on it, but I don’t know if that is something that is going to resonate in the midst of an economic crisis. The Ayers/Wright stuff should have been used to define Obama as a radical early on. What I believe McCain/Palin should be doing is educating Americans exactly where Obama and a Democratic congress will take this country - Eurosocialism, unionism, socialized healthcare, etc.
Fannie May, Freddie Mac = The Failure of Socialism
What is a Repubot? Is Bill Bennett, well-known Democrat lawyer, a Repubot?
So far I have posted facts and you have posted "wrong". Not much credibility there. I referenced "Repubots" concerning posters on FR. Is Bill Bennett a FR poster or is there just a reading comprehension problem?
Excellent post!
For those of you who are dispirited: Remember '94? The tidal wave that swept Republicans into control of Congress? For the first time in 40 years? (A voters' "temper tantrum," and a lot of "angry white men," according to the late Peter Jennings.)
IIRC, no pollsters predicted that tsunami for the GOP. Why? Because the pollsters' models for "voter intensity" were all wrong that year.
Don't get me wrong: I'm not predicting a tsunami for McCain. I'm just agreeing with Thane that statistical models --used by all pollsters to "weight" or "adjust" their raw numbers-- are very iffy this year.
I haven’t given up on I’s.. I know exactly what the I’s represent in terms of the electorate and that they decide elections. So, going back to my original points on this topic, please show me one poll where the internals show that I’s are breaking with any majority toward Fauxbama... because I haven’t seen one single poll that has shown this, that’s had its internals published.
Comparing a Mid Term Election turnout by a party out of power with a Presidential election is a bit disengenous.
I am not saying be complacent, but the idea that this election is over and McCain has lost and lost by some huge margin is absolutely rediculous.
Your “facts” are nothing but unsupported accusations. And I already posted a link that debunks them. Feel free to parrot Obama if that makes you feel better, though.
There is no way Fauxbama wins any state he wasn’t up by 5-8 points minimal prior to both Conventions.
He won’t win FL,OH,NC,VA, the very idea that those states are truly in play is comical to me.
The Rust belt is where its at folks, PA,MI,MN and WI.
I was disappointed to hear McCain has pulled out of MI, but if strategic need says focus the resources elsewhere, so be it. IE PA, MN or WI is better to flip and MI, move the resources there, than fight and maybe get it but risk losing one of those on the gamble.
I firmly believe PA will go D this term, and at least 1 or 2 more rust belt states will go with it.
Look at what’s coming folks, McCain/Palin are going to start talking about all the questionable and scandals around Fauxbama, and Fauxbamas response is going to be “IGNORE THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN” (McCain’s just creating controversey, etc etc) and “KEATING 5”.
I don’t care what the polls are saying, I don’t feel worried in the least about this election. I just don’t see that the majority of americans are going to walk into a voting booth and and truly are going to decide, yea, this is the most important job in the world, and I’m going to hire a guy for it whos resume can’t fill up an index card. I just don’t see that happening folks.
Too many American voters are ignorant about economics, government, and history. I’m afraid we’re going to pay the price for that ignorance.
I believe God’s arm is still strong to Save! It ain’t over yet!
If Palin takes a hit to the chicn and is flattened, part of the losing half of the 2008 presidential ticket that barely gets 200 electoral votes, she won’t be a significant force in national politics ever again.
Recent history shows that losing VP candidates don’t do very well at all. Odds are Palin will suffer a similar fate.
She will be huge for GOP fundraising, though, since the base is in love with her and that will probably continue.
If McCain doesn’t win in 2008, Palin will likely never be president.
I don’t argue the bradley effect, though we may see it, I look at past performance, particulary in PA.
Look at the primary polling for Fauxbama V Hillary.. it was supposed to be close.. she clobbered him by 9 points. He doesn’t have a prayer in PA.
Hillary would have probably comfortably won the state, Fauxbama will lose it. It won’t be a blowout for McCain here, but he’ll definately win.
Fauxbama PEAKED before his own party’s primaries were over.. now the polls bounce up or down based on the republicans base support of McCain.. right now due to the bailout and other things, some folks are dejected and his numbers go down.. he goes on the attack and suddenly they’ll go up... There have even been a few pollsters interviewed that have been honest about this, that the number shifts don’t seem to be I’s breaking big for McCain or Fauxbama suddenly getting more support, but McCain seemingly losing support, but no gain on Fauxbama’s side stealing those votes.
Relax folks, this isn’t over, not by a long shot, and polling is blatantly off. Polls showing either candidate winning PA by 7 or 15 points like some have claimed are beyond any sense of credibility.
Any national poll showing that Fauxbama has over 50% of the vote among likely voters nationally is beyond believability.
I know pleanty of people who will vote for Fauxbama, I also know pleanty who did vote for Kerry, Clinton and Gore, and they won’t be voting for Fauxbama.
Work hard, but the idea that this is a lost cause is comical.
I agree, there is no reason to be fatalistic about the election that’s still a month away. And there are some serious problems under the hood in Team Obama.
I also agree that Obama probably peaked sometime in the Spring, which is good for us.
That's right. When it comes up now the average voter will say it's desperation politics and will not give it much weight.
By that well known liberal, Mark Levin
People take out their anger on the incumbent party - always has and always will.
Obama apparently has a spectacular ground game. The McCain campaign has acknowledged that and has said they can't match the ground game that Bush had in 2004. That is a problem, because who shows up on Nov. 4 is important.
I also understand the self identification of party has been fairly close on election day, but who is to say that Nov. 4 will show the same historical trend? You can't and I can't.
Rasmussen is only reporting how people self identify themselves and the trend in the past few weeks is a slight tick towards the democrats. That is not a good thing.
Electoral college the only thing that counts.
I’m not denying the ground game, I am simply pointing out reality.
The idea that Fauxbama is going to pull 8 or 10 Million more votes on election day by having 6% more democrats show up than republicans is comical on its face.
Every election cycle the electorate has been growing by about 20 Million voters. To get 8 to 10 Million more D votes than R votes on election day from your party affiliation means you have to break the math down this way:
Independents ~25%, so keeping this going you have 16 Millioin voters registering that are registering with 1 party or the other. There is no way you get an 8 to 10 Million advantage with 16 Million new party affilliated voters registering, its JUST NOT MATHEMATICALLY POSSIBLE.
To get to 8 Million margin, that would mean of the 16 million registered, only 4 Million registered republican.. or 25%, leaving 12 Million to register democratic... To get to a 10 Million advantage only 2 Million of the new registrants nationwide registered republican, leaving 14 Million to be Ds.
And you are not going to get 3 to 1 let alone 7 to 1 registration advantage nationally, I don’t care how good on the ground Fauxbama is. Even if you say Fauxbamas organization is INSANELY EFFECTIVE IN ALL 50 states and we get 25 Million new registrations instead of 20 this election, (that show up now, not just register), you still don’t get math that is believable for a Fauxbama victory that maps to a 6% margin in the electorial turnout.
The math doesn’t add up for poll modeling with democrats getting a 6% advantage as representative of election day results.
From what I can find, the only losing VPs ever to go on to the presidency in the entire history of the Republic are John Tyler and FDR.
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