I don’t argue the bradley effect, though we may see it, I look at past performance, particulary in PA.
Look at the primary polling for Fauxbama V Hillary.. it was supposed to be close.. she clobbered him by 9 points. He doesn’t have a prayer in PA.
Hillary would have probably comfortably won the state, Fauxbama will lose it. It won’t be a blowout for McCain here, but he’ll definately win.
Fauxbama PEAKED before his own party’s primaries were over.. now the polls bounce up or down based on the republicans base support of McCain.. right now due to the bailout and other things, some folks are dejected and his numbers go down.. he goes on the attack and suddenly they’ll go up... There have even been a few pollsters interviewed that have been honest about this, that the number shifts don’t seem to be I’s breaking big for McCain or Fauxbama suddenly getting more support, but McCain seemingly losing support, but no gain on Fauxbama’s side stealing those votes.
Relax folks, this isn’t over, not by a long shot, and polling is blatantly off. Polls showing either candidate winning PA by 7 or 15 points like some have claimed are beyond any sense of credibility.
Any national poll showing that Fauxbama has over 50% of the vote among likely voters nationally is beyond believability.
I know pleanty of people who will vote for Fauxbama, I also know pleanty who did vote for Kerry, Clinton and Gore, and they won’t be voting for Fauxbama.
Work hard, but the idea that this is a lost cause is comical.
I agree, there is no reason to be fatalistic about the election that’s still a month away. And there are some serious problems under the hood in Team Obama.
I also agree that Obama probably peaked sometime in the Spring, which is good for us.
I don’t believe for a minute that McCain wins blue Pennsylvania in this particular cycle. Why is it so hard to understand that this is a down year for Republicans, made worse by the economy? Just the way the cycle is. It will turn again, but this year, with the economy in the shape it is in, Pennsylvania is not going to turn red. That seems like wishful thinking. McCain has a chance in Minnesota, and perhaps Wisconsin to make up for the losses of New Mexico and Iowa, then we have to hope he holds onto Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, etc.