I haven’t given up on I’s.. I know exactly what the I’s represent in terms of the electorate and that they decide elections. So, going back to my original points on this topic, please show me one poll where the internals show that I’s are breaking with any majority toward Fauxbama... because I haven’t seen one single poll that has shown this, that’s had its internals published.
Comparing a Mid Term Election turnout by a party out of power with a Presidential election is a bit disengenous.
I am not saying be complacent, but the idea that this election is over and McCain has lost and lost by some huge margin is absolutely rediculous.
I am bringing midterm numbers that show Democratic votes vs. Republican votes being very lopsided for two reasons:
1. Someone keeps claiming “Everybody agrees that the 2006 midterms were terrible for us, and there Democrats were only up by 3%.” That is simply not correct. Democrats had about a 7% to 8% advantage overall in 2006 when the House and Senate votes are combined. I believe we are finding ourselves still in that downcycle for Republicans. Even GOP strategists allow that we will lose Senate and House seats this cycle, after all.
2. 2006’s voting ID combined with data showing that Democrats have stronger party ID advantages in close states like Ohio and Florida explains why pollsters like Rasmussen weigh the way they do. I believe it is slightly off, but not as much as many here seem to want to believe.
The fact of the matter is that Democrats have a registered voter advantage in the battleground states of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, etc. A lot of those extra Democrats still vote for a Republican for president in a normal presidential election. This being a down year for Republicans, and with the economy the way it is, that is a lot less likely than it usually is. If the Independent vote is split evenly between McCain and Obama, that is not a good thing. McCain has to make up the Democrative registered voter advantage with a major advantage from Independents.
Nobody should give up, quite the opposite. More bumper stickers, more signs in yards. The 527s need to start investing money into this presidential race, as should the RNC. Florida, Virginia, Ohio are seeing a massive influx of Obama money, TONS of TV ads. McCain’s expenditures are thin in comparison, and he is not getting enough backup from the RNC. The TV ad wars is where the election is won and so far it is not even close. Spend the money NOW. This is the time when opinions harden into final decisions.