People take out their anger on the incumbent party - always has and always will.
Obama apparently has a spectacular ground game. The McCain campaign has acknowledged that and has said they can't match the ground game that Bush had in 2004. That is a problem, because who shows up on Nov. 4 is important.
I also understand the self identification of party has been fairly close on election day, but who is to say that Nov. 4 will show the same historical trend? You can't and I can't.
Rasmussen is only reporting how people self identify themselves and the trend in the past few weeks is a slight tick towards the democrats. That is not a good thing.
I’m not denying the ground game, I am simply pointing out reality.
The idea that Fauxbama is going to pull 8 or 10 Million more votes on election day by having 6% more democrats show up than republicans is comical on its face.
Every election cycle the electorate has been growing by about 20 Million voters. To get 8 to 10 Million more D votes than R votes on election day from your party affiliation means you have to break the math down this way:
Independents ~25%, so keeping this going you have 16 Millioin voters registering that are registering with 1 party or the other. There is no way you get an 8 to 10 Million advantage with 16 Million new party affilliated voters registering, its JUST NOT MATHEMATICALLY POSSIBLE.
To get to 8 Million margin, that would mean of the 16 million registered, only 4 Million registered republican.. or 25%, leaving 12 Million to register democratic... To get to a 10 Million advantage only 2 Million of the new registrants nationwide registered republican, leaving 14 Million to be Ds.
And you are not going to get 3 to 1 let alone 7 to 1 registration advantage nationally, I don’t care how good on the ground Fauxbama is. Even if you say Fauxbamas organization is INSANELY EFFECTIVE IN ALL 50 states and we get 25 Million new registrations instead of 20 this election, (that show up now, not just register), you still don’t get math that is believable for a Fauxbama victory that maps to a 6% margin in the electorial turnout.
The math doesn’t add up for poll modeling with democrats getting a 6% advantage as representative of election day results.