Posted on 09/25/2008 3:19:10 PM PDT by TitansAFC
Just wondering. Rasmussen Reports releases their rolling Party ID breakdown for the national polls (recently added Democrats), but requires a subscription to get state breakdowns.
I ask because his state breakdowns, whatever they are, in just the last two weeks have shown some WILD swings.
Now Rasmussen has Barack pulling away in PA, ahead in NC, starting to pull away in CO, pulling away in the Great Lakes states, pulling Ohio to a tie and closing the gap to a near tie in Florida. Oh, and he has Obama almost within the margin of error in South Carolina and statistically tied in IN.
Over the past two weeks, no state has been stable, and swings have been consistently wild.
So if I'm reading right - although his Balance of Power page uses other polls - Rasmussen Reports now has Obama winning by several million votes nationally, taking all of the swing states except for statistical ties in OH, VA, IN, and Florida (and tied in NH), winning A MAJORITY in NC, making SC a swing state, etc. etc.
I need to see some of the damn party breakdowns in these state polls if anyone subscribes, please. I am having a hard time believing that McCain is going to struggle to get 150 EVs, which is the Rasmussen math right now.
Rasmussen's as good as any of them, but please don't attribute magic powers to even the most skillfully-conducted polls. This race is tight and national sentiment is bouncing back and forth by a couple points every day.
The big question that the pollsters struggle to figure out, but which no one knows, is who will actually show up to vote on election day. The polls give us a sense of where the race lies but given the electoral college and the aforementioned turn-out mystery, we just shouldn't get too worked up when the polls seemingly turn against us.
When McCain is 10 points down for a week or more, then panic may be considered.
So I take it that the answer to my actual question is that nobody in all of FR subscribes?
Shoot.
I guess not. Hmmm...
TitansAFC,
Just listen to LS; he’ll keep you straight. LS even has his own wikipedia page.;)
Ever see that movie with Robin Williams where he edited videos of people's lives and for enough money made them into wonderful people?
lol! no I missed that gem.
It’s called “The Final Cut,” in the future where when people die they get a video made of their life. He is the editor who takes a child molester or someone like that and makes him into “Father Knows Best.”
he also said kerry would get 300+ EV votes in ‘04....
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