FIRST THOUGHTS: SUNSHINE FOR OBAMA (ZeroBama Up In FL by 2, NBC/Mason-Dixon

FirstRead.com ^ | 9/23/08 | Mark Murray

[NYC Republican]

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann *** Sunshine on Obama’s shoulders: If you want to know why Obama is doing his debate prep today in -- of all places -- Tampa, FL, look no further than the latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up in the Sunshine State by two points, 47%-45%. Yet inside those numbers, Obama leads McCain in the Tampa Bay area (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, and Polk counties) by a 49%-43% margin. Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says the key to winning Florida statewide is usually through Tampa Bay, and Obama’s six-point lead in the area explains why he’s ahead in this poll. Moreover, outside of Nevada, there is probably not another state that has been hurt more by the housing and credit crunch, and that may be benefiting Obama right now. Also potentially troublesome for McCain in this must-win GOP state, he leads by just six among Hispanics (49%-43%), which in Florida is made up of a majority of Cubans. (If Obama does pick off younger Cubans, he may close the overall gap thanks to his large lead among non-Cuban Hispanics in the I-4 corridor.) Also, McCain's four-point lead among seniors (48%-44%) is not as big as he needs it to be to offset the electorate-changing demographics among blacks and young voters. So Obama's decision to prep for Friday's debate in Florida is turning into a smart play, huh? Any extra day in Florida might pay off… Video: NBC political director Chuck Todd breaks down the latest poll numbers from the battleground state of Florida, which is attracting particular attention from the presidential candidates.

[word_warrior_bob]

Mason-Dixon was off on Bush/kerry by 18 points. way out side their margin of error.

____________________

Hey wait, it’s the GOLD STANDARD. It’s the only poll in the country he could find with Obama leading in FL. Don’t you know it’s the GOLD STANDARD. They were off by EIGHTEEN in 2004, impossible, it’s the GOLD STANDARD. In the future do not question NYC Republican, he’s the GOLD STANDARD. /sarcasm

[BatGuano]

This is BS. Obama is behind in FL and is in a panic mode. Remember that pollsters are not honest, have their own agenda that they are in position to force them upon us and you will take all polls with a grain of salt. Obama is going to get smashed in the face on November 4, 2008.

[mrsmel]

Thanks, great info. We’re supposed to get all worked up over one poll, as against 12 others that have McCain either ahead or tied, mostly ahead? Something’s rotten in Denmark.

[cherry]

troll alert....go away.....

[jps098]

There was major hand-wringing in 2004 by NYC as well.

[cherry]

I don't like it when people are overly exuberant on the threads and I sure don't like it when we have the constant parade of naysayers....who are ever bit as unrealistic as those who think it'll be a landslide for McCain....

I suspect trolls....but I also think that the clock strikes 12 twice a day, and these people dwell on their meager right picks....

guess what folks.....I KNEW Sarah Palin would be a hit from day one...I knew she would...so there..

[NYC Republican]

Ok, thanks... RealClearPolitics has it showing up today... Didn’t know it’s from last week.

[mrsmel]

I don't like it when people are overly exuberant on the threads and I sure don't like it when we have the constant parade of naysayers....who are ever bit as unrealistic as those who think it'll be a landslide for McCain....

I agree. I like to read the different poll results, see them as a snapshot of the time and place they were taken, remind myself that everybody has an agenda whether they even know it or not, and read the next article. I'll probably only get excited about polls the day of the election. My blood pressure couldn't handle more than that :)

[NYC Republican]

For the record, call me concerned that a lib marxist sKum is so close to becoming our next pPresident... Blast me for being negative if you want, but I don't really care... Unlike many of you, I'm a realist... I see what's going on, from a different perspective... I see the other side gearing up for fraud, the MSM blatantly supporting him, and with the exception of a very few occasions, ZeroH has a lead, however slight...

All the while watching McCain, with a powerful weapon, not even using it ---Ayers,Rezko,Wright.. Hell, he won't even say a bad thing about Dems...

I thought this was a forum of sharing ideas and discussing our political triumphs and angst... Some of you think it should just be a cheerleading forum, where you celebrate the goof polls and discount the bad... Sorry, been there, done that--- see 2006 elections..

So... Have at it... Until JRob asks me to leave, I'll continue to provide what I see as an objective view on things

[NYC Republican]

You have somw SERIOUS issues...

[NYC Republican]

Hey newbie- you just joined a couple months ago... Who’s the troll???

[NYC Republican]

I’m not going wobbly... I saw a poll, which I thought was recent...RCP posted it today... Look at my posts... All I said was “tell me this isn’t happening”... You’re looking at what others interpreted from that.

[NYC Republican]

Seek some help... Really... That chip on your shoulder is pathetic

[NYC Republican]

You’re calling me a troll??? Based on what? Look at any of my 12,000 posts here... None are lib...

[Lead Moderator]

KNOCK IT OFF!