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Hurricane Ike Live Thread IV
NOAA/NHC ^ | 14 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 09/12/2008 11:29:13 PM PDT by NautiNurse

The eyewall of Hurricane Ike crossed Galveston Island in the early hours of Saturday morning. Reports indicate as many as 20,000 residents of Galveston Island chose not to evacuate as storm surge engulfed the island. The Freeport Chief of Police reported as many as 2000 residents did not evacuate as flood waters swamped coastal communities. There are widespread reports of power outages and coastal flooding throughout the Texas/Louisiana region. The U.S. Coast Guard received hundreds of calls Friday afternoon to rescue people stranded by flood waters along the barrier islands and Galveston Bay communities.

Multiple fires broke out in the Greater Houston area fueled by strong winds. Fire fighting efforts were hampered by flood waters. Brennan's Restaurant, a landmark in Houston, burned to the ground. A 584-foot freighter crippled in the Gulf of Mexico and its crew of 22 survived the storm after The U.S. Coast Guard was forced to abort rescue efforts Friday afternoon due to foul weather

Gulf Coast wholesale gasoline prices jumped to nearly $5 a gallon over fears that water and wind damage could keep the facilities closed for days or longer. Oil companies had shut down 97.5 percent of production in the Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning and were battening down refineries and petrochemical plants in an area that accounts for one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity.

Exxon Mobil reported evacuating workers from its Gulf Coast offshore platforms and onshore facilities in the anticipated path of Ike, shutting down daily production of about 36,000 barrels of oil and 270 million cubic feet of gas..

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image Image Loop
Lat/Lon No Lat/Lon Short Long
Visible Visible Visible Visible
Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave
Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None None None None
AVN AVN AVN AVN
Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak
JSL JSL JSL JSL
RGB RGB RGB RGB
Funktop Funktop Funktop Funktop
Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston


KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread III
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; US: Louisiana; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneike; ike; iketexas; louisiana; spartansixdelta; weather
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To: ichabod1
Tiger Loose on Bolivar
3,441 posted on 09/17/2008 9:38:15 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Palin won more votes in her Wasilla Mayoral race than Biden got in his 2008 Pres run)
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To: NautiNurse

Just one more little problem. How ironic it would be to survive Ike and the heat and the snakes only to come out of your house one morning and be face to face with the king of the jungle.

Tyger! Tyger! burning bright,
In the forests of the night,
What immortal hand or eye
Could frame thy fearful symmetry?

In what distant deeps or skies
Burnt the fire in thine eyes?
On what wings dare he aspire?
What the hand dare seize the fire?

And what shoulder, and what art?
Could twist the sinews of thy heart?
And when thy heart began to beat,
What dread hand, and what dread feet?

What the hammer? What the chain?
In what furnace was thy brain?
What the anvil? What dread grasp
Dare its deadly terrors clasp?

When the stars threw down their spears,
And watered heaven with their tears,
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the Lamb, make thee?

Tyger! Tyger! burning bright,
In the forests of the night,
What immortal hand or eye
Dare frame thy fearful symmetry?

William Blake


3,442 posted on 09/17/2008 9:42:10 AM PDT by ichabod1 (It's all fun and games until Russia starts invading Eastern Europe (pete))
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To: NautiNurse

I’ve been without cable (not surprising that there’s a delayed reaction — again), so now that it’s back on, I’m trying to play catch-up as fast as I can.

Did anyone recall seeing recent pictures of a restaurant called Fish Tales at 2502 Seawall in Galveston? I know a group of people who met at Fish Tales regularly, so I went down there once in July 2007 with my daughter and a family friend who was familiar with the area. We came into Galveston via the Interstate and left town via the ferry route, so I’m really glad that I had one opportunity to see the city of Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula before Ike. We had spent a really pleasant day in Galveston and planned to go back again in May 2008, but we had a family emergency and went to Florida instead and didn’t get a chance to return. Someday, in what I imagine will be a very distant future, if there’s anything left of Fish Tales, I’ll bet those regulars would return again given the opportunity. I wonder what happened to the place?


3,443 posted on 09/17/2008 9:42:56 AM PDT by buickmackane (Pineville, Rapides Parish, Louisiana)
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To: buickmackane

I dunno. I don’t think Galveston got wiped. A lot got flooded and major repair will have to take place, but the seawall protected it (again.) The Bolivar Peninsula (where you got off the ferry and drove through) got wiped.

I just realized, actually probably knew it in the past and forgot, but I just realized why beach property has that sort of rustic, weatherbeaten look to it. There’s really no point in spending a lot of money to pretty up something that might be wiped off the map at any time. Not that the rest of our homes can’t either, but the beach property is particularly vulnerable.


3,444 posted on 09/17/2008 9:51:24 AM PDT by ichabod1 (It's all fun and games until Russia starts invading Eastern Europe (pete))
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To: Katlyn; All

“I include the National Guard in that [volunteers].”

I hope Texas has not been having the problem that occurred in Katrina that a lot of the National Guard was busy with Iraq and couldn’t help out then.

I think we actually need two types of Guard. The National Guard with the current obligations and benefits and a Home Guard with lesser benefits that can only be used for emergencies in the 50 states and territories. I think there would be additional volunteers for a Home Guard, knowing they could not be sent out of country.


3,445 posted on 09/17/2008 9:54:49 AM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: jeffers

laugh ping and Comment 3329


3,446 posted on 09/17/2008 10:00:56 AM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: gleeaikin

Wasn’t there a Home Guard during the time of the Civil War?


3,447 posted on 09/17/2008 10:01:06 AM PDT by PleaseNoMore
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To: SE Mom; beachprincess

Maybe you can find it for her as I have to leave soon for a doctors appt...

NOAA does not seem to have a damage shot of the area she wants.

Here is the location... (zoom in or out)

She wants S Jacks Rd which is one block west of O Neil Rd and one block east of S Tinkle Rd (this is closer to the end of the island and west of Crystal Beach)

The “A” marker is not right on the area

http://maps.google.com/maps?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rls=GGLG,GGLG:2005-33,GGLG:en&um=1&q=joy+sands+motel+crystal+beach+texas&fb=1&cid=0,0,11993609963914135331&sa=X&oi=local_result&resnum=1&ct=image

Street map... it is between the words Bolivar Peninsula & Crystal Beach on this street map and is on gulf side of route 87.

http://www.bolivarchamber.org/portals/0/BolivarPeninsulaLeft.pdf


3,448 posted on 09/17/2008 10:04:37 AM PDT by stlnative (HurraMcCain Palin will continue to build strength as it travels across the USA over the next 60 days)
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To: SE Mom; beachprincess

here is the NOAA link again (BTW they have added more zoom images of the east coast) but not of the area beachprincess is looking for

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/ike/IKE0000.HTM


3,449 posted on 09/17/2008 10:07:27 AM PDT by stlnative (HurraMcCain Palin will continue to build strength as it travels across the USA over the next 60 days)
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To: buickmackane
The roof of Fish Tales appears to be intact per NOAA satellite. The Flagship Hotel took a beating, with the ramp to the pier badly damaged/destroyed.
3,450 posted on 09/17/2008 10:08:51 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Palin won more votes in her Wasilla Mayoral race than Biden got in his 2008 Pres run)
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To: gleeaikin

I don’t know what the answer is but when you have people in elected offices running the show, egos are going to clash.. Overall, excluding the look and leave program, it sounds like things are going ok..problems fixed as they come up...that’s about all rescuers can do.


3,451 posted on 09/17/2008 10:20:57 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: PleaseNoMore; All

If there was a Home Guard in the Civil War, I would like to know about it so I can forward the information to the Congress Critters that I hope to contact about this idea. Please tell me if you have the answer and call your own Congress Critter if you like the idea. Phone CA4-3121 and ask the operator to connect you with right office. If you don’t know who your representative or senator is, ask the operator. They can look it up and then transfer you.


3,452 posted on 09/17/2008 10:27:30 AM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: AFPhys; NautiNurse

http://www.oe.energy.gov/news_room_and_events/events.htm

From there I eventually get to this report of today’s situation:
Situation Report for September 17, 2008, 10AM
http://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/2008_SitRep_7_Ike_091708_10AM.pdf

My approximate summary (& diff from y’day) is:
- 1.9 (-.3M) Million “customers” (not people) are dark now in TX, 0.8M (-.2M)in OH, 0.3M (-.2M) LA & AR & KY
- Oil/gas starting to come back online slowly, but much is still off line. About 60% of the platforms operating in the area remain evacuated.
- It appears that about 30 of the 3,800 offshore production platforms were destroyed.
- Natural gas pipelines seem to be OK. No major infrastructure damage reported. Slowly coming back up. Need for electric. Some repairs. Not much difference there, it seems.
- A little under 90% of gas/oil wells in the GOM are not producing due to preemptive shutdowns- slowly recovering.
- Nat Gas Damage assessments under way. Flooding. Lack of power. Some may take several weeks to cleanup & repair.
- Minor damage to some off-shore facilities. Too early for detailed repair estimates, but probably not more than a few weeks.

The largest affected distribution company, CenterPoint, reports has gone from 3/4 down to about 2/3 of their customers dark. Facilities still out of service include 21 (was 90 y’day) transmission facilities, 936 (was 1348) distribution circuits. It sounds like they are doing a great job of getting this done, but of course the stuff remaining will be increasingly difficult. They haven’t changed their estimates of time it will take.

Someone specifically asked about Entergy yesterday. It is only about 1/4 the size of CenterPoint, and MUCH harder hit. Almost 85% of their customers are dark, and my glance indicates their facilities seem to be really devastated compared to CenterPoint’s. Though they are much smaller, they report having even more people working there. Still, they’re expecting about the same recovery time, and there is a list of areas and times in the report.

On balance, world wide investors are looking at Ike as a non-event for anything other than short-term production of Oil/Gas since prices are down substantially over the last couple days. Distribution situations will cause price action in local areas. In my area, gasoline is up only $0.04, so it’s been a nothing.

[IF you look at the pdf above, I caution you that the 90%+ of oil facilities out is meaningless as far as anything having to do with damage. That simply means certain facilities are not producing as of this report.]

[This is linked to the previous summary I made]


3,453 posted on 09/17/2008 11:08:53 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: gleeaikin; Katlyn; All
I hope Texas has not been having the problem that occurred in Katrina that a lot of the National Guard was busy with Iraq and couldn’t help out then.

That never happened, and that assertion was simply another in a long list of lies put out by the MSM and the LA and nat'l Democrat politicians as part of their efforts to smear the Bush administration and deflect attention away from their own incompetence and unpreparedness.

While it is a "fact" that a lot of National Guard were busy in Iraq (and still are), the assertion that this caused a shortage of Guard personnel and resources for Katrina relief was a flat-out lie. The reason there were delays in getting Guard resources involved was that LA Gov. Kathleen Blanco refused to give her okay, as required by law, despite repeated urgings from President Bush.

In fairness, however, Bush bears the full blame for failing or refusing to publicly call her on it. For whatever reason, that failure of command and leadership on his part allowed her and the MSM to win the PR battle and convince the American public that Bush and his administration were primarily to blame for all the aid debacles of Katrina.

As subsequent history shows, the Katrina episode, and many other examples of his mind-boggling inability or refusal to recognize that there are certain enemies who must be confronted and defeated rather than placated and appeased, has cost him, and us, dearly.

3,454 posted on 09/17/2008 12:19:32 PM PDT by tarheelswamprat
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To: RikaStrom

I just came back from the doctor and went that way to see if there was something there and didn’t see a thing on Spencer and Red Bluff. Maybe it’s inside the Kroger?

Lots more things opening up but traffic is a nightmare.


3,455 posted on 09/17/2008 12:38:40 PM PDT by texasredtop
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To: tarheelswamprat; NautiNurse; jeffers; STARWISE; Allegra; All

http://www.click2houston.com/video/17492630/index.html

For anyone who’s interested- here’s a fascinating 30 minute walking tour of Galveston done by one of the local news reporters- shows the high water lines on the Strand, Post Office etc. (roughtly 7-8 ft)

The island behind the sewwall fared a great deal better than anywhere else.


3,456 posted on 09/17/2008 12:41:46 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet-McCain/Palin 08)
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To: ichabod1

Beach property takes a weather-beating from the wind coming off the gulf. It picks up sand and kind of sandblasts everything.


3,457 posted on 09/17/2008 12:46:00 PM PDT by texasredtop
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To: SE Mom

This should be printed out by authorities and given to anybody who chooses to remain during the next “mandatory evacuation”


3,458 posted on 09/17/2008 12:54:29 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: DrewsMum

Check your mail.....


3,459 posted on 09/17/2008 12:58:48 PM PDT by texasredtop
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To: RikaStrom

I got blue roof info for you. freepmail me when you return. If you still need it. be safe.


3,460 posted on 09/17/2008 1:08:39 PM PDT by DrewsMum (I'm hopin and wishin and prayin and freepin.....)
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