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Hurricane Ike Live Thread III
NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 09/12/2008 5:12:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image Image Loop
Lat/Lon No Lat/Lon Short Long
Visible Visible Visible Visible
Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave
Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None None None None
AVN AVN AVN AVN
Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak
JSL JSL JSL JSL
RGB RGB RGB RGB
Funktop Funktop Funktop Funktop
Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Arkansas; US: Louisiana; US: Oklahoma; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: arkansas; california; crude; desiel; drill; flordia; florida; galveston; gasoline; gulf; hurricane; ike; louisiana; offshore; oil; oklahoma; prices; refineries; rigs; storm; texas; weather
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To: Moose4
National Data Buoy Center at Station 42001 is reporting waves of 25 feet. (6:50 AM CDT ) today.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

Thanks for the clickable link.

21 posted on 09/12/2008 5:28:59 AM PDT by TYVets
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To: SouthTexas
The inevitable calm before the storm.

I was thinking that this morning when I looked out the window ~ there is barely a breeze at my house.

22 posted on 09/12/2008 5:29:33 AM PDT by TheMom (Sarah is one of us . . . there is hope for America!)
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To: NautiNurse

Morning NN. Everbody get a good look at pics of Galveston this AM, it might be the last you see of some of it.Many beach houses and piers will be lost in this storm. Bolivar penensula will be almost certainly devastated.


23 posted on 09/12/2008 5:30:51 AM PDT by eastforker (Dems Holler for your Dollars/Palin Hollers to Save you Dollars, OOOOH SARAHCUDA)
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To: politicalwit

I heard that kind of news two times yesterday on 590KLBJ in Austin—on their top of the hour local reports. What gives?


24 posted on 09/12/2008 5:31:39 AM PDT by comps4spice
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To: politicalwit

I don’t know about anywhere else, but the local Citgo prices increased 50 cents this morning. (Southwest Virginia)


25 posted on 09/12/2008 5:31:55 AM PDT by Library Lady
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To: mothball

I’m starting to worry about friends and family in Memphis!


26 posted on 09/12/2008 5:32:28 AM PDT by RDTF (my worst nightmare is being on jury duty sequestered with 11 liberals)
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To: eastforker

Are you watching the local news?

Looks like Galveston area is gonna be underwater before to long.


27 posted on 09/12/2008 5:33:28 AM PDT by TheMom (Sarah is one of us . . . there is hope for America!)
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To: NautiNurse

Thank you so much for your dedication to this ping list - I’m out of town and it helps to keep an eye what my husband and sons have to look out for... (tho it looks as though San Antonio may not see a drop.. )


28 posted on 09/12/2008 5:35:26 AM PDT by pamlet
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To: politicalwit
That's simply not true. There was NOT a 30% spike in wholesale unleaded pricing. As of 8:30 AM today wholesale pricing is $2.81/gal...that's up $0.15/gal from yesterday opening price.

NPR was reporting yesterday that wholesale gasoline for Gulf Coast delivery was up $1.00 (as of 8:30 a.m.; I pulled in to fill up) to $4.25

29 posted on 09/12/2008 5:35:31 AM PDT by DeaconBenjamin
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To: TheMom

Yes, this is going to be a storm of historic proportions.


30 posted on 09/12/2008 5:36:39 AM PDT by eastforker (Dems Holler for your Dollars/Palin Hollers to Save you Dollars, OOOOH SARAHCUDA)
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To: politicalwit
As of 8:30 AM today wholesale pricing is $2.81/gal...that's up $0.15/gal from yesterday opening price.

I am sure the spike in gasoline prices would be higher if it were not for the crude oil supplied by Florida off shore rigs.

31 posted on 09/12/2008 5:36:42 AM PDT by TYVets
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To: WestCoastGal

I believe that the Today show has no idea what they’re talking about when they say the sea wall is 7’ at Galveston, and that you’re right when you say 17’...

I’ve no direct knowledge - that is why I put my post the last thread in terms of ASL - Above Sea Level.

Nevertheless, NHC is saying 20’ surge (that means, I am pretty sure, 10% chance of that - probably about 50% chance of 15’surge or so) ... add to that the massive waves and high tide and a track that now is so stable that I believe it has to be respected ...

It adds up to there is going to be a whole lot around Galveston Bay today that won’t be there on Sunday... not because of wind, but because it will have floated away.


32 posted on 09/12/2008 5:36:47 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: Moose4

From that site, this is an interesting graph, windspeed over time:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42361&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=5&time_label=CDT


33 posted on 09/12/2008 5:37:00 AM PDT by savedbygrace (SECURE THE BORDERS FIRST (I'M YELLING ON PURPOSE))
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To: comps4spice

Wholesale gasoline for Gulf Coast delivery, as opposed to the NY or Chicago commodities market.


34 posted on 09/12/2008 5:37:08 AM PDT by DeaconBenjamin
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To: Library Lady
I think Citgo is Venezeulan gas, isn't it?

The rise in price may partly be due to Chavez booting our ambassador out.

35 posted on 09/12/2008 5:39:27 AM PDT by what's up
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To: CarolAnn

“Heraldo ... Do they really want to get rid of him that badly?”

Don’t worry about him... he’s a good swimmer.


36 posted on 09/12/2008 5:39:41 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: TheMom

Amazing footage of the seawall. I never expected to see water on the blvd there.

The West End is now flooded.


37 posted on 09/12/2008 5:40:03 AM PDT by Enosh (†)
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To: politicalwit

The wholesale price being charged gas stations IN THE AREA of the storm may well have spiked that way due to shortages. You’re correct about the COMMODITY market price not spiking yesterday. These are not the same thing.


38 posted on 09/12/2008 5:42:45 AM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: Enosh

This is going to be a terribly long day. Very relieved you evacuated when you did. Hang in there.


39 posted on 09/12/2008 5:43:13 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Palin won more votes in her Wasilla Mayoral race than Biden got in his 2008 Pres run)
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To: NautiNurse

Here in Tomball TX, we’re about 70 miles from Galveston, and pretty much directly in Ike’s path, as of the 4am update. We’re not too worried about the storm itself. We may get Cat1 gusts, and heavy rain. But since the storm will be moving quickly through the area, we should avoid serious flooding from rain (I hope). My major concern at this point is power. We’ll almost certainly lose power tonight, and the talking heads are telling us to prepare for the possibility of power outages lasting a much as 2 weeks. How does one prepare for 2-weeks with no power? Leave?


40 posted on 09/12/2008 5:44:56 AM PDT by Tim n Texas
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