Hurricane Ike Live Thread Part II

NOAA/NHC ^ | 10 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Texas began issuing mandatory and voluntary evacuations as Hurricane Ike continued to strengthen and slowly moved toward an uncertain landfall destination in the western Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Rick Perry issued a disaster declaration in advance of the storm. Louisiana Governor Jindal released several hundred buses to Texas for evacuation assistance.

Reports from Cuba indicate widespread damage from Hurricane Ike, which raked the length of the island nation. The U.S. State Department again offered Cuba humanitarian assistance after a previous offer was declined by the Cuban government.

The stock market Wednesday rose as investors bought oil stocks and and oill futures fell.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[jdub]

I grew up in Kingwood (Forest Cove, actually) and went through Alecia there. There were a LOT of those pine trees snapped like twigs. One tree in our neighbor’s yard snapped off at ground level and ended up in out backyard. Somehow it managed to clear a 6 foot fence without touching it.

[af_vet_rr]

Texas does do a great job and I’m sure they have all the coast towns evacuated and a safe as possible.

Normally this is true, but because of the swing last night, quite a few areas have been caught off-guard, and a lot of the bigger school districts in and around Houston are still in session, etc., which means that come 6pm tonight, you will see another Rita-like mess.

Galveston especially was caught flat-footed - there are a lot of people that went to bed last night thinking it was going towards Corpus.

[texgal]

I'm west of your previous location by about 3-4 miles. Got my batteries and water earlier in the season, as for the Oreos - just got back from HEB and they were re-stocking the shelves like mad.

We had to pack things up a work so I didn't get home until after 8:00 pm last night. You couldn't get to a gas station or a grocery store last night. There were lines at the gas stations and the HEB was busy too at 6:00 am. I didn't need too much - mainly snacks for me and treats for the doggies (I don't want them to eat me in my sleep for running out of their goodies!).

I've put all the potted plants and things that might blow away in the garage with the cars, so I should be good to go at this point. I will fill up the bathtubs with water and all that's left to do is wait for Ike to come calling!

[NautiNurse]

That’s a whole lotta graphics. Any idea how often they are updated?

[WestCoastGal]

They should have been more aware, our local news 3 days ago said if this storm slows it will head further east. I hope they start NOW to get it together.

[CindyDawg]

It looks like our state government has been very quiet about this storm but in reality they have been busily preparing for awhile. On the coast...they have nursing homes and people with special needs on standby with a place to go if needed. Buses, ambulances etc are waiting. I’m well out of the cone now but we have national guards here camping out “just in case”.

[NautiNurse]

Cordless phones do not work when the power is out

...and cell phone towers go down in powerful storms.

Excellent reminder, and the old corded phones are inexpensive.

[kassie]

Hey!! How are things at your house?

[af_vet_rr]

Am I the only one who notices there is hardly any coverage of this storm? Gustav and MO had 10 times more, what’s up with the news channels?

To be blunt, Corpus Christi was not exactly the kind of population center that Houston or NOLA is, and that doesn't make for a sexy story.

Now that it's headed towards Houston, all of the major networks are rushing to Galveston. TWC has setup shop in Galveston, etc.

Speaking of Galveston, there was some expert on one of the stations this morning (I think Fox, he was talking to some ditzy female and male anchors). They mentioned the storm surge from Camille and asked him if Galveston's seawall was topped by several feet of water in a surge, would it be as bad as New Orleans.

He got this flabbergasted look on his face as if he was talking to two of the biggest idiots in the world (which he nearly was).

He politely said it would be much worse than New Orleans, and the female tried to argue with him, talking about the levees being breached or topped, and he politely explained that the levees slowed down the flooding in New Orleans quite a bit, and that people had warning in a lot of the areas well in advance of the flooding.

He then explained that if Galveston's seawall was topped by several feet of water, there is no levee system to slow things down, nobody would have hours in advance to watch the water rise and get to higher ground, that it would go to hell in a hurry, because it's an island, surrounded by water everywhere you look.

They could not get it through their heads that Galveston is an island and that a surge topping the seawall by 5-10 feet would make Katrina look like nothing.

[af_vet_rr]

Am I the only one who notices there is hardly any coverage of this storm? Gustav and MO had 10 times more, what’s up with the news channels?

I would also add that all of the major news outlets are covering 9/11 ceremonies as well. About noon or so, you will probably see the full focus brought to bear on Houston/Galveston (and Fox, CNN, etc., will do their best to scare the hell out of people and scare people into evacuating that don't need to be evacuating).

[kassie]

Without reading 430 posts, is there anyone from Katy on here?

[Constitutionalist Conservative]

It looks like our state government has been very quiet about this storm but in reality they have been busily preparing for awhile.

Reed Arena here at TAMU has been transformed into a field hospital, and will be receiving coastal patients (room for 500+) over the next couple of days.

[af_vet_rr]

They should have been more aware, our local news 3 days ago said if this storm slows it will head further east. I hope they start NOW to get it together.

True, but Corpus was on the ball, and TxDOT had started prepping for Contraflow, including opening the I-37 shoulders up to evacuation traffic. Houston and Galveston should have started prepping a lot more, but it really looked like it was going to be the Corpus Christi area.

The problem is, I really think that many of the people living in the Houston area only remember Rita, and Alicia means nothing to them. Houston-area leaders have also caught a lot of crap for being too early on the evacuation stuff in the past as well, and so they are paranoid about closing schools (and remember, federal and state governments will penalize school districts if they aren't open X amount of days).

[TheMom]

That one ate my car in Sugar Land the day before the ‘great’ flood downtown.

All roads out of our neighborhood were flooded the day before the great flood, but all cleared up as the rest of Houston was underwater.

[CindyDawg]

College Station?

[SomeCallMeTim]

NN,

Based on what I see in this storm... it IS getting pretty close to panic time for SOUTH Houston. I hope people are not being complacent because the winds are only 100 mph. I believe the winds are just low at the moment because 1) It’s passing over some cooler water, and 2) the eye wall is restructuring itself.

In the next 24 hours, the eye will be going over much warmer water... If these dual wind bands combine into a single eye, everything else is in place for this storm to blow up to a Cat 4 in a BIG hurry. The central pressure is already low enough...and, this is the biggest factor in storm surge anyway.

Current forecast models predict a landfall near Freeport in the early morning hours of Saturday.... right at high tide.

If that scenario holds up, it is going to be devastating for Houston. Several years ago, I did some computer modeling work with the NWS to look at potential storm surge affects in Galveston Bay and Clear Lake. The entire results were never released publicly.... they were THAT BAD!.

Basically, everything east of I-45, from about Nasa Rd 1 south... gets covered with water. Some places, like the beautiful South Shore Harbor areas, are 10-15’ under.

I went to Port Arthur,Tx and Sulphur, La days after Rita hit. The level of destruction was frightening. If that level of wind/surge hit near Freeport... oh my.

So please.... anyone living in League City... Dickinson.. Texas City... Santa Fe... Galveston... Clute.. Lake Jackson... DO NOT STICK AROUND!

If you’re less than 20’ elevation...and within 15 miles of the coast... then you are NOT safe. If you’re in a higher elevation area then, it’s your decision based on how strong you think your dwelling is.

My prayers for all of you... I HOPE and PRAY that I”m wrong.. and, Ike stays weak, or moves somewhere else.

[janetjanet998]

If the current path holds..this will be a total disaster!!!

According to another forum people aren’t taking the storm seriously in the houston area...and local officials and local media are not playing it up....

In fact the mayor of Galveston: “We do not intend to evacuate Galveston Island,” Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas defended this decision, saying current models call for Galveston to be hit with winds and rain only equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane

SHE is 100% wrong!!! and Ike’s storm sruge will swamp the island

[SouthTexas]

We’ll be fine, barring tornadoes. Think it’s actually going to be like my sacastic “damp and breezy” comment from earlier in the week. For us anyway, not so for the northern coast.

Thought they were starting a bit early, but there is a protocol they have to follow.

[CindyDawg]

JMO but I think Houston will do what they need to do and will be ok.

[kinghorse]

With that path the eyewall is going over my house, fun isn’t what is coming immediately to mind. If the storm explodes before it hits the beach, fun might be a disaster that’ll make all these other ones look mild. Houston’s got a lot to break, more than anything that’s seem a Hurricane in modern time. They better move that damm storm path is all I’m saying.