NN,
Based on what I see in this storm... it IS getting pretty close to panic time for SOUTH Houston. I hope people are not being complacent because the winds are only 100 mph. I believe the winds are just low at the moment because 1) It’s passing over some cooler water, and 2) the eye wall is restructuring itself.
In the next 24 hours, the eye will be going over much warmer water... If these dual wind bands combine into a single eye, everything else is in place for this storm to blow up to a Cat 4 in a BIG hurry. The central pressure is already low enough...and, this is the biggest factor in storm surge anyway.
Current forecast models predict a landfall near Freeport in the early morning hours of Saturday.... right at high tide.
If that scenario holds up, it is going to be devastating for Houston. Several years ago, I did some computer modeling work with the NWS to look at potential storm surge affects in Galveston Bay and Clear Lake. The entire results were never released publicly.... they were THAT BAD!.
Basically, everything east of I-45, from about Nasa Rd 1 south... gets covered with water. Some places, like the beautiful South Shore Harbor areas, are 10-15’ under.
I went to Port Arthur,Tx and Sulphur, La days after Rita hit. The level of destruction was frightening. If that level of wind/surge hit near Freeport... oh my.
So please.... anyone living in League City... Dickinson.. Texas City... Santa Fe... Galveston... Clute.. Lake Jackson... DO NOT STICK AROUND!
If you’re less than 20’ elevation...and within 15 miles of the coast... then you are NOT safe. If you’re in a higher elevation area then, it’s your decision based on how strong you think your dwelling is.
My prayers for all of you... I HOPE and PRAY that I”m wrong.. and, Ike stays weak, or moves somewhere else.
JMO but I think Houston will do what they need to do and will be ok.
On another note, my mom and aunt live one block off the Gulf in Alabama. Mom is watching waves like she has never seen (she's good about evacuating before they get this large)..and she's be on and off the island (Gulf Shores) since the 40's, living there since the early 80's. Ike isn't headed to south alabama, yet we are dealing with coastal flooding.
Haven't heard from my sister in League City yet. My bro in law wanted to surf yesterday, but mandatory evacs in Galveston kept him home. (a grown man and still all he sees in a hurricane is surfing waves! sheesh)