Posted on 09/02/2008 6:40:33 AM PDT by ubaldus
Obama is up by 6 in today's Rasmussen tracker, by 5 without leaners (48 - 43). It is obviuos that McCain had a very bad polling day yesterday, something like 42-53 daily sample or even worse.
Some of it may be statistical noise, but it appears that all the noise around Palin selection is starting to hurt.
Yes, I hope the ground game will benefit from Palin’s selection. Which is important not only for McCain, but also for limiting the damage in the Senate and House elections.
I am in total agreement of the Palin's "right message."
The Palin family did what MY family did when my 17-year old daughter was faced with an unwed pregnancy. She had the baby, got married, and is now the proud mom of three, with a great promising career, etc.
Unfortunately, many people will only focus on the daughter's pregnancy .... and will subconsciously worry that THEIR daughters will want to get pregnant because "if the VP's daughter did, so can I."
I am NOT trying to rain on Sarah Palin's parade at all!!!
I am just being realistic....
Rasmussen has looked at weekend polling and found no Dem bump up. Neither do I. Here are his numbers:
Leaving out the convention week, the numbers for Monday, August 4th, weekend polling, had Obama +0. That Friday, all weekday polling, had Obama at +1. On Monday 8/11 it was Obama +2. That Friday it was Obama +3. On Monday 8/18 it was Obama +1, on Friday 8/22 it was Obama +2.
Has anyone looked at the demographics of this poll?
Rasmussen was right about McCain’s pick of Sarah.
Although hs is a Demoncrat, he’s sharp.
That’s funny right there.
His support is empty among the blue dog dems. Fauxbama polls worse than the Democrat in the generic Democrat v Republican question. His support is not deep at all, and his support among the blue dogs is next to non existent.
Next week will show us where we stand in terms of baseline with the following week or two showing us trending.
I wouldn’t expect anything else to majorly effect numbers rapidly until the debates. Then its a matter of the last minutes, and the last minutes will break for known vs unknown and that not a good place to be if you are Fauxbama.
I personally think Fauxbama will blow it before NOV.. the press can’t keep covering up his gaffes and things.. Look at saddleridge, this started the trend toward McCain in earnest, and this was this little thing only on CNN with only the junkies really watching. The full fledged debates have the capacity to break it wide open.
Its either going to be neck and neck to the end, or the signs of a blowout by debates. I personally think Fauxbama will blow it big time, I do not see the blue dogs, and the swing voters going for a guy whos resume literally cannot fill up a 3x5 index card, and gaffes every time he opens his mouth.
I feel like an idiot, believe me.
That said, I didn't sit around all weekend digging up and analyzing the past 20 years of Sarah and Todd Palin's life.
I already love them for what they represent, and for what they believe and support today in 2008.
But the headline threw me for a loop, and I am glad the newspaper was wrong.
Lesson learned. The media are creeps.
Your post is so full of garbage it appears to be lifted out of DU.
I think the opportunity to win over women in the middle is by addressing the pregnancy issue head on. Sarah should relate how she and Todd, like many other parents, would have preferred if Bristol had waited to have a child until she were married and better equipped to handle the responsibility of raising a child. They love and support their daughter and are looking forward to having a grandchild. They will help Bristol and the baby. This, I believe, would strike a chord with many in middle America.
Yes. I was a blind adherent.
I grew up in a family that had been Democratic (in the Chicago area) for generations.
I helped my older brother pass out campaign literature for Eugene McCarthy.
I opposed the war in VietNam because our soldiers were getting killed.
I actually voted twice for Carter.
I voted "socialist worker" when I could, because I thought I was helping poor people.
I had always thought abortion was wrong, but bought my party's argument that it was wrong to push my morals on others.
I thought Democrats (and Liberals) "cared more" about people. I didn't harbor any dislike for Republicans, but figured Liberals were morally superior.
Then my "kind hearted" Liberals savaged Clarence Thomas. I watched as much of the hearing as I could. I was jolted awake when I saw the nastiness and noticed the the skewed media commentary.
I asked myself, "Why do Liberals need to control the news so much if the truth is on their side?"
A party that needs so many MSM lies, in order to prolong its existence, is not worthy of support.
The GOP bounce will determine allot!
Are conservatives really excited about Sarah or is it just the more vocal ones dominating the microphone? The polls are showing a mixed reaction to Sarah. One of them came out with 39% approve, 39% don’t approve and the rest are undecided and that is within the GOP BASE.
Sott Rasmussen is an evangelical Christian Republican.
Great post!
A lot of women are achievment deficient. A self made woman like Palin makes them feel bad about themselves. It is the opposite of Bill Clinton's "I feel your pain". It is why Oprah is popular. Oprah tells women what they want to hear.
Hillary Clinton is popular because she achieved success the old fashioned way, she married it.
A self made woman, makes most women feel deficient.
Time for people to layoff you a little. What a disgusting front page headline (from your link). The “recently” refers to the time of disclosure, but they sure make it look the other way. This is one of the worst cases of intentional bias I have ever seen. It is easy to see why you would have thought that it was a recent DUI.
EXACTLY.
It took 4 days for the DNC convention to even show up in the polling, and it wasn’t much, but folks are running around like chickens with their heads cut off claiming the pregnancy revelation on a NATIONAL HOLIDAY impacted the poll instantly? That’s just ignorance of lunacy to believe that.
I have seen nothing in any polling that suggests the general McCain trend has been halted. The DNC convention bump was maybe 3 points, that’s HORRIBLE folks. By next week around tuesday or wednesday we’ll have an idea where the race stands. The RCN convention will be over and we’ll have a baseline of the race currently from there.
Also when you dig into the internals, that few point “bounce” equates to some wayward democrats coming home, not swing voters breaking left. This isn’t going to create a W for Fauxbama.
The Dynamics of the race haven’t changed. Democrats are sticking to a losing strategy, try to paint McCain as Bush III, which will not work to any reasonable person paying attention. Meanwhile the McCain camp is very successfully to this point turning the campaign into a referendum on Fauxbama... and as long as the race remains that, Fauxbama not only loses, but loses big IMHO.
Next Tues/Weds are the next set of numbers that will really say anything meaningful in terms of the race.
These things will happen. Remember this is, by self report, a roughly 2 to 1 conservative to liberal country as per the Battleground poll released last week.
“And all they have to do is make a 20 second ad with
Sarah’s statement about their family’s support for their daughter”
It’s not about Obama. It’s ALL about core GOP ideology and peopple thinking about voting for her. Sarah and her family made their choices and determined their roles in their family. Many conservative families don’t match their roles and are HOME for their family.
Not so long ago there was an article on how the better educated women opted by choice to stay home and raise their own kids. The role reversal here and the pregnancy of both the Mom and daughter is something the BASE must be sold on. Most Moms WANT to be home with their newborns. Most Moms don’t want their teenage daughters pregnant. It’s still ify on whether or not Sarah clinched it.
Many will be so frightened of Obama that they will vote for McCain but they may very well still be holding their noses.
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