Posted on 08/24/2008 12:36:34 PM PDT by GeorgiaDawg32
Yes, Peniel Cronin has done significant research on the primaries and caucuses, including the “what if” scenario of full voting rights for Michigan and Florida.
See her report at: http://www.lynettelong.com/2008_Caucus_injustices_FINAL.pdf
“Are there any reliable sources that have “done the math” to see what this does for Hillary? Links please.....where’s Tim Russert’s dry-mark board when you need it?”
It looks like Barack would still be ahead in total delegates (based on very quick look at the numbers - meaning probably not reliable).
OK, don’t hold me to this, but it looks like the previous final delegate count (with DNC penalty of cutting MI and FL votes in half and allocating some MI to Obama) had Obama with 2229.5 delegates and Hillary with 1896.5. So Barack up a net of 333. This includes both pledges and super delegates.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
So assuming Super delegates stays the same, the even with In pledged delegates (with DNC penalty), Obama was up by +127 (1766.5 vs. 1639.5). If all MI & FL delegates counted, and still allocating some of MI to Obama, Hillary would pick up a net of +24. Best case, if all of MI goes to Hillary she would pick up a net of +142. Either case, since she was down -206 in Super Delegates, the Pledged delegate total change is still not enough.
In popular vote, if you include MI, it looks like Hillary would win (but because of caucus states, the some totals are estimates):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
NOTE: I did not use a calculator, just the back of an envelope, so all calculations may be wrong. THEREFORE, SEE POST #21, looks like someone did a lot of work already.
And apart from this year’s drama on the timing of primaries and all that, they have now set a precedent that full voting rights will be restored to states which violate the party rules by holding primaries too early.
So, in 2012, what will prevent states from continuing to leap frog each other to hold earlier primaries and caucuses? Will the Iowa caucuses be held on Halloween 2011? Maybe they will be on the 4th of July in 2011?
Apart from the whole Obama/Clinton struggle, it really appears that the Democrats don’t have any rules, will not adhere to rules, and will not enforce sanctions for those who violate the rules.
So in retrospect the May 31st Dem. committee meeting which was supposed to settle all this is now a meaningless meeting.
“Either case, since she was down -206 in Super Delegates, the Pledged delegate total change is still not enough.”
To clarify, besides the -206 down in Super Delegates, sheA she was down by -127 in pledged delegates, so the total down was -333. So best case she picks up +142, leaving her short by -191 in total.
He was on the ballot in Florida, but chose not to have his name on the ballot in Michigan. That was his own fault.
Hillary never released her delegates, so I'm I'm VERY curious as to what's going to happen when she gets a roll call of votes on the floor.
I need to look at the numbers, but if she can twist enough super delegates, she may be able to pull this off.....or at least make it very interesting.
Chances are she will get far less votes during the roll call than the hillary crazies are expecting. A lot of the delegates will want to show “unity” and others will just vote for Obama knowing that is obviously going to be the nominee
The reason the DNC is doing this is to establish some important principles. First, the rules mean what the DNC says they mean when they say it. Second, previously agreed upon rules are non-negotiable, unless it is expedient to do so. Finally, some animals are more equal than others. I hope this clears up the matter.
That’s interesting. They didn’t get their say in the primary’s, wonder what they may have to say at the convention?
Im sure they are enthused with the “presumed” candidate. lmao! This gets better by the minute.
No, it’s worse than that.
It’s like grounding your kid because he wants to go out with a friend instead of you, then on Saturday afternoon when he’s canceled his plans, un-ground him and ask him again what he wants to do that night.
What this does for Hillary is give her the nomination legitimately. It also means Hillary gets to pick her new VP and that will be Obama. Biden will obviously step aside.
Party unity is restored, Obama get 8 years under Hillary before he runs for President and John McCain just spent several million dollars on free advertising for Hillary.
And her debts are paid off with over 20 million in the bank for the general election.
What about the remaining 7 states?
Hm...do you really think that’s their plan (I’m honestly asking)?
Because I was viewing it more as a way for the Obama-worshipers to give him the nomination “legitimately” (and by that I mean, as legitimately as the Chinese 13 year olds getting gold medals for landing on their knees).
However much more practical it would be for Obama to accept VP if Hillary took over at the convention, I think he’d be too arrogant and too busy throwing a tantrum to accept. I could see her making a token offer once she’d picked her real VP and was sure he’d say no.
And even if he WAS her VP, do you think the worshipers would accept that or view it just the same as no messiah? The rabid leftwingers would never vote for McCain anyway, but protests in the usual urban hellholes and boycotting the election would be pretty certain.
” The rabid leftwingers would never vote for McCain anyway, but protests in the usual urban hellholes and boycotting the election would be pretty certain.”
Don’t think so. They are easily controlled by both the media and the local pols. Who are all Hillary supporters. No, this is going to come from Bambi directly and it is going to come with a “message from God.”
One thing that is assured - No Democrat candidate henceforth will pass on having his/her name on the ballot as Obama did in Michigan and no candidate will pass on campaigning in a state (like Obama did in FL) that’s supposedly disqualified.
So there’s absolutely no penalty for states who hold early primaries. All the candidates will have their names on the ballots and campaign in the states anyhow just as if they were NOT disqualified.
Kind of fun to see what knots Democrats tie themselves into. It’s a sort of microcosm of liberalism in general - rules are made to be broken, there’s no penalty for breaking rules and rules apply arbitrarily.
If you would like to be added or dropped from the Michigan ping list, please freepmail me.
“the rules mean what the DNC says they mean when they say it.”
But, until they say it...they mean nothing.
The states were initially stripped of delegates for holding primaries before Feb. 5. The party's rules committee restored the delegates in May, but gave them only half votes.
On the radio in Lexington, KY, they pointed out today that the Florida delegation will get front-row seats, while the Kentucky delegates are assigned to the nosebleed section, between signs marked “American Samoa” and “Democrats Abroad.”
I believe I saw quite a few “Democrats Abroad” when Barack Obama made his overseas tour last month, but I didn’t call them by that name. I called them “French,” “Germans,” etc.
obumpa
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