Posted on 07/24/2008 11:12:48 AM PDT by LdSentinal
The significant news coverage Barack Obama is receiving on his foreign trip has not translated into a bounce in his numbers, a just-released FOX News poll shows. Obama now holds the slimmest possible edge over John McCain, leading by just 41 percent - 40 percent in a head-to-head contest. In fact, Obama’s support is down slightly from his 45 percent - 41 percent advantage last month.
Opinion Dynamics Corp. conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News from July 22 to July 23. During that time Obama was traveling in Jordan, Israel and Palestinian territories. In the days before the poll was taken Obama had been touring Afghanistan and Iraq. The poll has a 3-point error margin.
Among independents, Obama has a narrow 2 percentage point edge: 34 percent to McCain’s 32 percent, and 34 percent undecided.
McCain has more strength of support from his party faithful. Fully 86 percent of Republicans back McCain compared to 75 percent of Democrats that back Obama.
Given that the independent vote splits about evenly, one might expect McCain’s strength in Republican support would give him an advantage overall. The reason that fails to happen is that the pool of Republican voters is smaller than the pool of Democratic voters, which means McCain’s party-based edge has less impact on the race than it might otherwise. In this poll 42 percent of voters identify as Democrat and 33 percent Republican, and that’s about where the party identification numbers have been all year.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
A 41%-40% split implies 19% are either undecided or going with 3rd party candidates. That strikes me as a pretty high number of people rejecting the establishment parties. Does anyone have a feel for whether this is the historical norm at this point in an election cycle, or whether it forebodes a significant showing for 3rd parties in November? (Or just plain lousy turnout.)
Yes, he actually said this. That speech may signal the beginning of the end for him. It exposed him as a man way over his head. He showed himself to be a total lightweight. Obama--like his mentors Wright, Pfleger, and Ayers--just doesn't know when to shut up.
From Wiki: "Jumping the shark is a colloquialism used by U.S. TV critics and fans to denote the point in a TV or movie series at which the characters or plot veer into a ridiculous, out-of-the-ordinary storyline. Shows that have "jumped the shark" are typically deemed to have passed their peak, since they have undergone too many changes to retain their original appeal, and after this point critical fans often sense a noticeable decline in the show's quality."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jump_the_shark
The general consensus is that both parties have about 40% of the voting populace as supporters. The twenty percent in the middle is generally what folks try to pull from, in order to win.
That 40% does shrink in some elections. I think it’s still a good rule of thumb to go by.
Then you’ll get your occasional Reagan, and that 40% on the Dem side will shrink to around 35% in some instances. It works the other way too.
Based on past history, a Democrat "being up" by 6 or even 13% at this point is pretty much the norm, regardless of which way the election goes.
Based on their track records to date, I don't trust polls at all.
Does every single poll have McCain at 41% or is it just me?
Here are some sample questions from this poll...you might reconsider this as a legitimate poll:
Have you heard any of your friends and neighbors say there is something about Barack Obama that scares them?
Yes 49%
No 50%
Have you heard any of your friends and neighbors say there is something about John McCain that scares them?
Yes 36%
No 62%
Some people believe Barack Obama, despite his professed Christianity, is secretly a Muslim. Others say that is just a rumor and Obama really is a Christian as he says, and point out he’s attended a Christian church for years. What do you believe — is Obama a Muslim or a Christian?
Muslim 10%
Christian 57%
John McCain was held captive for five years in a North Vietnamese prisoner of war camp. Do you think that experience would make McCain a better president or a worse president?
Better 49%
Worse 11%
No Difference (voluntary) 33%
Do you think Barack Obama’s trip to Iraq, Afghanistan and the Middle East is better described as a fact-finding trip or as a campaign event?
Fact-finding 19%
Campaign event 47%
Both (voluntary) 25%
As I said on another thread, most Americans get plenty onery when ANYONE (but especially Europeans) outside the U.S. of A. try to act like they know best who Americans should vote for.
An “endorsement” from Germany, France and the like cuts both ways.
I don’t think this plays well outside the Euro-wannabe neighborhoods.
Honestly, this is the worst news the Republicans could face.
If Obambi looses too much ground, the super-delegates may switch their votes.
If the “super” delegates vote for Hillary that would tear the Demo party apart (seen as Hillary stealing the nomination ) and that would seal a Republican win in November.
I’ll work on it...
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