Posted on 04/27/2008 6:21:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
IN THE PAST YEAR, I have spoken to almost 30 groups in Marin and Sonoma as resident political pundit.
I am inevitably asked to predict the presidential nominees and the winner in November.
Starting in early 2007, I made the same predictions that I make today. Sen. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and Sen. John McCain will be the next president. In the overwhelming Democratic North Bay, this generally is met with gasps of disagreement.
I always emphasize that I don't personally advocate this scenario. The questioners are asking for my prediction - not my preference.
I concluded early on that Clinton would prevail when she still had an aura of inevitability and was backed by the Democrats' Washington-based establishment. Despite an abysmal record of winning national elections, the party's powers-that-be are adept at delivering nominations. Their support of three presidential losers, Walter Mondale in 1984, Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004, proves the point.
My bet on Clinton is based more on gut than brain.
Sen. Barack Obama does have an impressive delegate count. I just can't believe that the unsinkable Clinton will fail to achieve the goal of being the first woman presidential nominee of a major party. Note that I didn't say she would achieve the presidency. Clinton and her husband are a force unto themselves. Their endurance exhausts the Energizer Bunny. The downside is that their win-at-any-cost tactics make the Democratic nomination almost worthless.
That leads to my second conclusion. Arizona Sen. McCain will be victorious on Nov. 4. The heroic McCain is the only Republican with any hope of attracting independents and moderate Democrats. That's something that Republicans, facing annihilation after the unpopular Bush-Cheney era, desperately need. While I acknowledge questioning my sagacity in late 2007 during McCain's dark days, he ultimately vindicated my hunch.
McCain now faces a Democratic Party tearing itself apart. If the 1980 Jimmy Carter-Ted Kennedy primary contest taught us anything, it's that a party divided upon entering a national convention will lose. I acknowledge the economy has tanked, there's no way out of the Iraq fiasco and that public confidence is as low as the price of gas is high. Yet when it comes to losing presidential elections, the Democratic mantra is "Yes, I can."
In fighting for the top spot, Clinton not only has taken the luster out of the once-sparkling Obama, she has managed to amplify her already negative image. That will be fatal in the fall election.
McCain will win IF he gets back on his Straight Talk Express and distances himself from the befuddled Bush. While this will displease the political right, hatred of all things Clinton will keep them in the Arizonan's camp. McCain's problem is that he's off to a slow start by pandering to the shrinking GOP base. Perhaps wiser hands will steer him back to the middle after the Minneapolis convention.
What I had not predicted was Obama's rise. Nor did I ever expect that Hillary and Bill "the first black president" Clinton, would use every trick in Karl Rove's playbook, including the race card, to stop Obama's juggernaught. Team Clinton understands that Rove's tactics work, at least in the short run. Until March, my guess that Clinton would be the Democratic standard bearer and McCain president was qualified. If Obama managed to be the Democratic nominee, I concluded he would prevail over McCain.
My logic was that given a choice, the ever-optimistic American people would pick the best of the future, Obama, over the best of the past, McCain. Thanks to Clinton's blunt attacks and Obama's gaffes, the luster is off the Illinois senator who now apparently is running out of steam.
That the Democrats are self-destructing goes full circle in validating my prediction that McCain will be the next president of the United States.
What’s insulting about McCain’s proposal for the gas tax, is that it is one of the few taxes that actually make sense. As long as they don’t spend it on things unrelated to highways, I’m all for gas taxes.
McCain is adrift in a sea of confusion IMO. He doesn’t know up from down as it relates to conservative values.
Global warming? Please, it’s a non-issue. Besides, John is going to fix it. LMAO
It’s getting very ugly isn’t it. If it wasn’t going to be so destructive to our naiton, it would be an “E” ticket ride, watching these clowns.
Thanks for the note and the link.
All I can say is give it a lot of thought and do what makes sense to you.
If you think having McCain represent Conservatism will make Cosnervatism strong, by all means vote for him.
He’s wrong on so many other things why pay any attention to him on this?
There isn't one. Its either that black militant, communist Clinton or the old guy.
He almost had me until he wrote this. These are Clinton tactics.
“Team Clinton understands that Rove’s tactics work,”
Rove’s tactics? The Clintons require help from no one and bow to no one in the tactics department.
“It does differ as I am wanting the military to finish their job before lefty civilians pull them out.”
Within 8 months of swearing in John McCain will demand the Iraqis handle their own security and, saying ‘we’ve turned a corner’ or somesuch he will gut the force presently in Iraq.
When Bush goes “his” war goes. Yes this is utterly delusional but all three of the three clowns running for president are utterly delusional.
The race card has always been the main card in the Dem playbook. Since neither candidate is getting traction, watch for it to come out with a vengeance. And if Obama is the Candidate, be ready for the MSM to play it for anything Obama is criticized for.
“Our interest clouds our judgment on these matters.”
So you don’t believe the Freepers who think it’s going to be a forty state rout? Neither do I. Some of those same people were convinced that nobody in his/her right mind would vote for the haughty John Kerry with the very questionable past, and yet it came down to 60,000 votes in Ohio.
This year will be a 2000/2004-type squeaker, and it could go either way, depending on the candidates’ likeability and last minute revelations about their pasts, as interpreted by the 2 or 3% of mushy middle voters who aren’t even paying attention right now. I laugh at Freepers who say, “Obama can’t win, Hillary can’t win, McCain can’t win.” They parade their ignorance.
What an asinine thing to hope! And, wishing for it, you ought to go review the records of John Tyler who succeeded William Henry Harrison as 10th president of the U.S.; and Millard Filmore who succeeded Zachary Taylor as the 13th. Neither are much regarded as "great" choices.
They just can't seem to restrain themselves from attacking Bush, even though he'll never run for office again. What's amusing is that this 'befuddled' President has run rings around the libs for over 7 years.
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