Posted on 04/27/2008 6:21:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
IN THE PAST YEAR, I have spoken to almost 30 groups in Marin and Sonoma as resident political pundit.
I am inevitably asked to predict the presidential nominees and the winner in November.
Starting in early 2007, I made the same predictions that I make today. Sen. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and Sen. John McCain will be the next president. In the overwhelming Democratic North Bay, this generally is met with gasps of disagreement.
I always emphasize that I don't personally advocate this scenario. The questioners are asking for my prediction - not my preference.
I concluded early on that Clinton would prevail when she still had an aura of inevitability and was backed by the Democrats' Washington-based establishment. Despite an abysmal record of winning national elections, the party's powers-that-be are adept at delivering nominations. Their support of three presidential losers, Walter Mondale in 1984, Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004, proves the point.
My bet on Clinton is based more on gut than brain.
Sen. Barack Obama does have an impressive delegate count. I just can't believe that the unsinkable Clinton will fail to achieve the goal of being the first woman presidential nominee of a major party. Note that I didn't say she would achieve the presidency. Clinton and her husband are a force unto themselves. Their endurance exhausts the Energizer Bunny. The downside is that their win-at-any-cost tactics make the Democratic nomination almost worthless.
That leads to my second conclusion. Arizona Sen. McCain will be victorious on Nov. 4. The heroic McCain is the only Republican with any hope of attracting independents and moderate Democrats. That's something that Republicans, facing annihilation after the unpopular Bush-Cheney era, desperately need. While I acknowledge questioning my sagacity in late 2007 during McCain's dark days, he ultimately vindicated my hunch.
McCain now faces a Democratic Party tearing itself apart. If the 1980 Jimmy Carter-Ted Kennedy primary contest taught us anything, it's that a party divided upon entering a national convention will lose. I acknowledge the economy has tanked, there's no way out of the Iraq fiasco and that public confidence is as low as the price of gas is high. Yet when it comes to losing presidential elections, the Democratic mantra is "Yes, I can."
In fighting for the top spot, Clinton not only has taken the luster out of the once-sparkling Obama, she has managed to amplify her already negative image. That will be fatal in the fall election.
McCain will win IF he gets back on his Straight Talk Express and distances himself from the befuddled Bush. While this will displease the political right, hatred of all things Clinton will keep them in the Arizonan's camp. McCain's problem is that he's off to a slow start by pandering to the shrinking GOP base. Perhaps wiser hands will steer him back to the middle after the Minneapolis convention.
What I had not predicted was Obama's rise. Nor did I ever expect that Hillary and Bill "the first black president" Clinton, would use every trick in Karl Rove's playbook, including the race card, to stop Obama's juggernaught. Team Clinton understands that Rove's tactics work, at least in the short run. Until March, my guess that Clinton would be the Democratic standard bearer and McCain president was qualified. If Obama managed to be the Democratic nominee, I concluded he would prevail over McCain.
My logic was that given a choice, the ever-optimistic American people would pick the best of the future, Obama, over the best of the past, McCain. Thanks to Clinton's blunt attacks and Obama's gaffes, the luster is off the Illinois senator who now apparently is running out of steam.
That the Democrats are self-destructing goes full circle in validating my prediction that McCain will be the next president of the United States.
Wait a minute, I thought Gore won, no?
As I believe Erasmus said, “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.”
This guy thinks Obama would win if he were nominated. How good can his predictive abilities be?
It won’t happen.Sorry Juan McPain.
Is the author on drugs? He says McCain has been pandering to the Republican base? I guess in Lib-speak pandering means insulting.
“Here’s hoping McManic’s one of those 2 month presidents like we had back in the 1800’s, and that he’s picked a good VP.”
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Lobbying for Mitt Romney as McCain’s VP should replace McCain bashing on FR.
It would be more productive. And it might just work.
I don't wish anyones demise, but I'm still pulling for Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter, JC Watts or Jim DeMint.
Obama hasn't even lost yet, but this author blames his loss on Karl Rove... tsk
This must be where old Dick took a giant suck off his crack pipe.
Half right. Clinton didn't take any luster from Obama.
He did that all by himself.
And Clinton managed to screw up without any help at all.
>McCain's problem is that he's off to a slow start by pandering to the shrinking GOP base.
LOL! Okay, that is downright funny. And stupid.
>Thanks to Clinton's blunt attacks and Obama’s gaffes, the luster is off the Illinois senator who now apparently is running out of steam.
Obama is what he is and there is no hiding it.
If Obama gets the Dem nomination, Bill and Hillary will work behind the scenes to defeat him (while nominally supporting him publicly). Why? So she can say “I told you so” when she runs again in 2012.
Faulty analysis. Reagan would've annihilated Carter no matter how united the Dems were.
This guy’s analysis is as warped as his political ideology. McCain panders to the economically ignorant, enviro-nuts, and...well...whoever he thinks will believe him at the moment.
Takes naiveté to a whole new level.
I'll be writing the author and asking him exactly where the race card is in Rove's playbook.
spotswood@comcast.net
In one sentence this author has managed to summarize their entire liberal mindset, democratic party, their supporters and their candidates.
Might want to consider this site ..analysis:
http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/3597/the_clinton_firewall/
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