Posted on 04/23/2008 8:19:27 AM PDT by gridlock
2008 Democratic Popular Vote Popular Vote Count ............................Obama............Clinton..........Spread Popular Vote Total..........14,397,506 49.2% 13,896,368 47.5% Obama +501,138 +1.7% Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA*..14,731,590 49.3% 14,120,230 47.2% Obama +611,360 +2.1% Popular Vote (w/FL).........14,973,720 48.3% 14,767,354 47.6% Obama +206,366 +0.7% Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA*..15,307,804 48.4% 14,991,216 47.4% Obama +316,588 +1.0% Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)**..14,973,720 47.4% 15,095,663 47.8% Clinton +121,943 +0.4%
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
She might have won MI but Barry-O would have pulled heavy in Detroit and other black areas so the margin would not have been huge.
The Superdelegates will decide this contest. Neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to win without them. Mrs. Clinton needs to make an argument to the Superdelegates, and you can be sure that argument will focus on two points: 1) That she won the important states that the Democrats will have to win in the Fall and 2) That she won the popular vote.
The Superdelegates do not have to be bound by the pledged delegate totals. In fact, the pledged delegate totals are probably least persuasive argument, because everybody agrees that the method of apportioning pledged delegates is fatally flawed. The Superdelegates could make their choice based Astrology and the phases of the Moon, if that's what they want to do.
At the end of the day, it will come down to electability. Hillary Clinton is going to have much more convincing evidence of electability, when all is said and done.
No, the super delegates AND the pledged delegates will decide the contest. FYI: Even the pledged delegates can vote for whomever they want.
Let's look at the math using the CNN data.
Currently, Obama has 1,719 delegates [1,487 pledged and 232 super delegates] while Hillary has 1,586 delegates [1,331 pledged and 255 super delegates]. You need 2,025 delegates to get the nomination which leaves Obama 306 short and Hillary 439 short.
There are nine primaries left with 408 delegates at stake. Although the odds are that Obama will win more than 50% of the remaining delegates, assume that he only gets 50, i.e., 204 delegates. This would give Obama 1,923 delegates or 102 short of the nomination. Hillary would have 1,790 delgates or 235 delegates short.
There are 308 super delegates not pledged to either candidate yet. Obama needs just 102 delegates or one-third of the uncommitted delegates to win the nomination. Hillary needs three-quarters of the remaing super delegates to win. Pretty impossible odds.
The Dem party leaders know the math. They want Hillary to drop out knowing full well she can't win the nomination. I suspect that they will give her an offer she can't refuse after the NC primary. She will drop out then. There is no way this goes to the convention for a vote without already knowing the result, i.e., Obama gets the nomination.
If Mrs. Clinton continues to hold the lead in the popular vote, I don’t think she will drop out, no matter what. The Clintons did not get to where they are by being shy and retiring. As long as she sticks with this thing, at the very least there is a chance Obama will stumble.
The only thing Mrs. Clinton wants is the White House. What can the Democrats offer her that she wants but does not already have? She has money. She is Senator-for-Life in New York. Chelsea is all set. What else does she want, other than the White House?
Your mistake is that you are looking at the CNN data...
According to Real Clear Politics...
Obama has 1482 Pledged Delegates and 1716 with Superdelegates
Clinton has 1330 Pledged Delegates and 1588 with Superdelegates
However there are still 12 delegates to be allocated from Pennsylvania, and those will probably go to Clinton 10-2. So after that, it will be Obama with 1718 and Clinton with 1340 pledged, and 1598, a difference of only 120.
Now, if Clinton can carry some momentum into the final contests, and nets another 20 or so delegates and finishes strong, it will be down to a difference of 100. With 409 unpledged superdelegates remaining, Mrs. Clinton would have to split them 255 to 154 in her favor, which is 62.3%. Mrs. Clinton has a lifetime of favors to call in and has been currying favor with these people since 1990. Obama is a freshman Senator with nothing to give.
I am not saying it is likely that she can do this, but it is possible. As long as that possibility remains, she will stay in this race.
It is as good as any. CBS has its own delegate count as well The differences are not that significant. The bottom line is that Obama will go into the convention with about a 150 pledged delegate lead over Hillary.
With 409 unpledged superdelegates remaining, Mrs. Clinton would have to split them 255 to 154 in her favor, which is 62.3%. Mrs. Clinton has a lifetime of favors to call in and has been currying favor with these people since 1990. Obama is a freshman Senator with nothing to give.
NC has 115 delegates. Blacks make up nearly 50% of registered Dem voters. Oregon [52 delegates], Montana [16], and South Dakota [15] are expected to go to Obama. If Obama gets just 55% of these 198 delegates, i.e., 109 delegates, Hillary would have to win 166 of the remaining 210 [80%] to achieve 255. That just ain't going to happen.
I am not saying it is likely that she can do this, but it is possible. As long as that possibility remains, she will stay in this race.
I think that the DNC will eliminate that possibility before the convention. If Hillary doesn't voluntarily get out after NC, they will poll the super delegates who will give Obama the needed victory margin. They can't allow this to get to the convention for a decision.
However there are still 12 delegates to be allocated from Pennsylvania, and those will probably go to Clinton 10-2. So after that, it will be Obama with 1718 and Clinton with 1340 pledged, and 1598, a difference of only 120.
According to CBS, Hillary received 82 to Obama's 73. CNN has it 81 to 69. What 12 delegates are you referring to? Are you including PA's super delegates into the total? In any event, CNN has the total delegates as 1,719 to 1,586 in favor of Obama and CBS has it 1,715 to 1,585.
I went to the CNN delegate tracker where you can plug in the numbers for the remaining future contests and see how the delegates will add up. Even if you give Hillary Clinton 53% victories in every contest and Obama gets 47% he still winds up with 1911 delegates and monster lady with 1799 delegates. That leaves him only 113 delegates short. He will get at least 113 of the 300 or so remaining superdelegates. Right there he gets to 2024 and he clinches it, he can declare victory and she really doesn’t have an argument. He’s got it. I think there is a great deal of animosity against the Clinton’s and this will be the chance to make them go away. The superdelegates will not overturn his lead in the delegates, even if she has a slight lead in popular vote assuming she would win every contest with 53%. That is a huge fantasy anyway. It is not enough. I think they will tie in Indiana or be about 51 - 49%, he is going to win very big in North Carolina 56 - 44%, and probably Oregon, Montana, South Dakota as well with her winning West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico.
While I don’t totally agree with you position, I do love your tag line. Very clever.
Never fear, the loser at the dem convention will most likely be welcomed by McCain and the other Rinos as the VP candidate of the Republican Party. What ever it takes to be elected. If Stalinism or Marxism is popular I believe these unprincipled GOP leaders would adopt same.
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